Offseason

While Omar sits around and proclaims his satisfaction with his current rotation, other NL teams are taking steps to improve. D-backs just got Haren, pairing him up with Webb, giving them a lights-out 1-2 punch. If we don't get Bedard or Santana or Kazmir, I think we're not in playoffs next year, figuring that Phillies beat us in NL east again.

PLD on "the list"

Lo Duca was among those included in the Mitchell Report, leading one to wonder if Omar knew and that's why he's gone now.

Missing the point entirely

I am sick and tired of hearing Omar say the Mets pitching staff is fine, on the basis that we have Maine and Perez.

Minaya was referring to 26-year-olds John Maine and Oliver Perez, who, in his mind, both turned a corner last year.

Whether or not Maine and Perez have "turned a corner" is only a secondary point. The main point is Pedro, Duque, and #5. It is an absolute FACT that El Duque will be injured at some point next season, and most likely when we need him most. It is also a fact that we have no clear #5 starter, since Pelfrey seems incapable. Finally, and most importantly, you can't possibly know what to expect out of Pedro in terms of durability. I am pretty comfortable saying that if he is healthy, he'll be a legit #1 after seeing the way he pitched in September. But can anyone honestly feel comfortable that he will be in a position to pitch the whole season and post-season after coming off major surgery? That's a huge gamble in my mind, especially when your #2 is guaranteed to be injured.

Finally, Perez for me has only "turned a corner" when he stops his binomial distribution of pitching: either a gem or a bust. He needs some more stability and consistency. When he's on, he's simply unbelievable and perhaps our best pitcher. But without consistency, he can't be better than a #3 or #4 on a team that truly wants to contend for WS.

Los Mets

Of course everyone who follows the Mets has heard or made the observation that Omar seems to prefer Latino players. This list from a Page 2 article does nothing to dispel that notion:

Nearly five years ago, when Jose Reyes debuted as New York's spark plug of the future, fans were excited. When, nearly three years ago, the Mets added Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez, fans were elated. When, however, Minaya added Perez and Chavez and Valentin and Ambiorix Burgos and Orlando Hernandez and Eli Marrero and Julio Franco and Ricky Ledee and Jose Lima and Sandy Alomar Jr. and Jorge Julio and Duaner Sanchez and Geremi Gonzalez and Miguel Cairo and Jorge Sosa and Ramon Castro and Luis Castillo and Jose Offerman and Carlos Delgado and Ruben Gotay and Guillermo Mota and Moises Alou and ...well, the bloom is off the rose."

Mets prospects

According to this, it sounds like our "prospects" are the laughingstock of the league. I have to say, I definitely was very concerned with the performance of both Pelf and Humber last year; neither really showed any signs of progress over the season. On the other hand, one has to wonder whether the Mets are shooting themselves in the foot by bringing up their rookies a season too early (almost certainly true for Joe Smith, Pelfrey, Gomez, Milledge, ...) This has two negatives: first, it almost certainly hinders proper development of the players, which in turn causes negative feedback. Second, it provides a negative showcase of our talent as potential trade bait, since they underperform expectations. Or, perhaps Pelf and Humber are just highly overrated busts like Pulsipher and Wilson.

Given the age of this team, assuming no major trades this offseason by Mets, we need at least three of Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey, Smith, Gomez, and F-mart to become legit MLB talents if the Mets are going to be competing in the next 3-5 years. Otherwise, they are going to have to trade a premier player like Wright, Reyes, or Beltran to pick up a bunch of young prospects in return.

Looks like we might gather all the Nats flotsam

if this story proves true.

I need someone to square this circle

From today's Newsday:

As for the Mets, chips like Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez and Philip Humber are not proven commodities yet. Even Mike Pelfrey, who is 5-9 with a 5.55 ERA the past two seasons, is not a sure thing.

Minaya is shopping these names around -- he met with Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail about left-hander Erik Bedard -- but there does not seem to be enough to get a [Bedard] deal done.

From last week's Newsday:

Before making Friday's trade, Minaya called other potential trade partners and was told that dealing Milledge to the Nationals would not hinder the Mets' chances of obtaining a front-line starter. Carlos Gomez is the young outfielder other teams want.

Said Minaya, "We were told that if we were to move Lastings, we have enough talent in our system to be able to complete deals for the guys we're talking about."

Hey Omar, last week you said there was still enough on the farm to reel in a big fish. Now, word is, Bedard will take more chips than we have.

What the E?

I guess I should have known that things were heading in a bad direction when Omar had to solicit the opinions of other GM's on the value of his remaining prospects. That's right, apparently Omar took the word of our opponents in determining how to proceed.

Next up on Occ Obs: W solicits Mahmoud's opinion on whether the US military is capable of occupying N Korea.

What the E?

It's headlines like this that I love:

Minaya: New York Mets don't need to trade for big-name pitcher

Omar just scares me sometimes. If he thinks this is going to help him keep other GM's expectations down on what he'll offer, he must be sampling his own product. The Mets obviously need a front line starter. We obviously need to win NOW, what with the new ballpark coming up, and the fact we're a major market team with the budget to win every year). Pedro as a #1 and Duque as a #2 is a joke with the mileage those two have seen. We desperately need the arm. Obviously, either Gomez or F Mart is going to be dealt. Same for Pelfrey, Humber or Mulvey. My WAG for a Bedard offer is Heilman, Pelf and Gomez.

Bedard

There are rumors Mets might be pursuing Bedard. I have to say that the trend of his numbers over the last 4 years is so incredible as to be hard to believe. I haven't heard much about his recovery since his oblique strain, but I assume no lasting damage.

Check out his steady and significant improvement over time in almost every category of importance: ERA, Ks, BBs, AVG, SLG, OBP, IP, OPS, W-L, etc. Pretty amazing trend.

Quote of the day

Not baseball-related, but this is still funny:

Asked if the Jets did anything on offense that that Dolphins didn't expect, (Jason) Taylor said, "Score 40 points."

No-han

If this deal for Johan Santana goes through I am done watching baseball.

It is bad enough if he goes to the BlowSox, b/c it guarantees them at least a 5-year dynasty on top of the Pats. But if the Twins really are willing to part with Santana for the pitifully low return of Crisp, Lester, Lowrie, and a 4th bogus player, that is so far beyond absurd it makes Cone for Hearn look like an even pick 'em. I can't even begin to describe how irate I will be if the Sox can land Santana and give up so little in return.

Coco Crisp, while a great CF defensively, offensively STINKS. Lester, while a good prospect, is hardly their top pitching prospect (Buchholz, Papelbon, and recently-traded Gabbard are all higher). And I've never even heard of Lowrie. If Sox can get Santana without having to give up at least one of Buchholz and Ellsbury it is beyond shameful. It would be like the Mets offering a package of Shawn Green, Mike Carp, and Heilman to get Santana. I am so bothered by this report, I can only hope it's a bogus rumor someone floated, maybe by the Twins so the Yankees would up their ante.

Santana

It seems increasingly unlikely we will get Santana, I go back to my earlier post that I don't think we have enough chips to trade compared to Yankees and Sox, both of which are also pursuing Santana. That said, the Twins' asking price is possibly too high for both the Yanks and Sox; I'm not sure either team wants to part with as many of their top prospects as the Twins want. However, the Yankees (having already lost Daisuke to Sox) cannot afford to let Santana go to Sox. A rotation of Beckett, Santana, Schilling, Daisuke, and Wakefield all but guarantees WS for several years in a row. (And that assumes Sox have to part with top prospects Buccholz and Lester to get Santana; if not, they are even stronger.) So Yankees will probably have to bite the bullet if they think Sox are really going to get him.

I'd like to see us talk trade with TB for Kazmir.

Jimmy Rollins...

...you magnificent d-bag. You start the season by proclaiming the Phillies are the team to beat, support your seemingly preposterous claim all season by making the Mets the Phillies' whipping boy and taking 1st place in NL East, and then end the season by taking home the NL MVP. Well played sir, well played.

Mets resign Castillo for 4 years

I like Luis Castillo. He was once an excellent player. He is still a good player.

But Eckstein would have been such a great fit, I'm feeling the let down right now.

On top of that, Castillo looked like his chronic hip and knee problems were downright debilitating at times this season. I think it's a huge gamble to think he'll be playing at a high level in 3 years. Here's hoping he comes back in April looking rejuvinated.

Bor-a$$

I am so glad to see that Bor-ass' latest over-the-top move is blowing up in his face. First, to tell the Yankees that unless they were willing to start discussions at $350 M, don't even talk to A-rod, is outrageous. Which teams exactly does Boras thinks have the money and the interest in signing one particular player up for >$35 M/yr for 10 years? That's insane, practically no teams have a payroll that could afford that, let alone want to do that. Boras is an idiot and he's getting what he deserved - no interest. He thought he could strong-arm the Yankees into some ridiculously inflated deal and it isn't going to happen. I hope A-rod has to sign for less than he was already making.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, A-rod's regular season #s really are not that much greater than several other players, all of whom are paid less than half of what a-rod is asking for. I'm sorry, but A-rod is not worth 2x Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Vlad Guerrero, etc. Especially when you consider that he stinks in the playoffs. His post-season performance is simply unacceptable at the salary he's asking for.

FA Market

So far Posada's been signed, Lowell was not, Glavine was not. Since the Mets apparently are no longer interested in Lo Duca, this means they must be banking on getting Torrealba. I understand that PLD is getting up there in years, but Torrealba's #s are underwhelming at best, and he's no better fielding or throwing runners out. So I'm not sure how this helps the team, unless there was some behind-the-scenes stuff where they don't think PLD is a good fit in the clubhouse.

I doubt we're bringing back Glavine. Braves want him, and that's where he'd rather be. It's where he's always wanted to be.

I think the Mets have zero chance of getting Santana, if the Yankees are serious about pursuing him. The Yankees have much better younger pitchers they can offer in return; last season had to reduce the trade value of Pelfrey and Humber. Apparently Milledge is still high on people's wish lists, and perhaps Gomez as well. But I just don't think we have the raw number of quality young players to get into a serious bidding war for Johan. I'm not sure where that leaves us, it means we have to go after Haren or Oswalt hard. As an alternative, maybe we could do a deal with the Sox. They desperately need a CF who can hit, perhaps they'd be interested in Milledge in exchange for some young pitching. On the other hand, Sox will probably just sign Torii as a free agent, costing them nothing in players.

I think there's a better than 50% chance that we don't make any major moves in this offseason. The only way we could land a blockbuster deal (i.e., Johan) is if we were willing to part with Jose-jose-jose, and that's not going to happen. I think Minaya is banking heavily on Pelf or Humber stepping up in a major way in '08. Rotation: Pedro - Duque - Maine - Perez - Pelf, with Humber waiting in the wings.

Gammons says Wright should stay put

In this love note to David, Gammons lays out the case for why Wright should not be asked to switch positions for anyone, including A-Rod. I should note that I somewhat discount Gammons opinions b/c he's still relatively new to the game of baseball.

...it is hard to understand what the Mets were thinking when they treated their best player as if he were Damion Easley. Move David Wright to second base? Puh-leaze. Not only did he win the Gold Glove at third this season, but he's never played second base, even going back to AAU ball when Ryan Zimmerman had to switch to second because Wright was the third baseman. Left field? Absurd. Wright is, along with Zimmerman, one of the two best defensive third basemen in the National League. And while A-Rod is very good, his range factor was below that of Miguel Cabrera.

Is Wright ever going to be a 50-home run hitter? Probably not, especially at Shea Stadium. But look at Wright's career offensive numbers compared to A-Rod's through age 24:

_Rodriguez Wright
BA .308 .311
OBP .363 .388
SLG .551 .533
OPS .914 .921
HR 148 97

This is not about Wright vs. Rodriguez, because they are both great players, and Rodriguez at first base with Wright at third and Jose Reyes at short would be a spectacular combination. But Wright, at 24, accepted every responsibility when the Mets struggled down the stretch. While the majority of his teammates practically hid out and ducked under tables in the players' lounge, Wright was there to answer the tough questions. "I feel," he said one day, "that it is my responsibility."

Granted, Rodriguez was a Gold Glove shortstop who moved to third base, but he initiated the action to get out of Texas. And when the Yankees took a hard line in regards to his negotiations with the players associated, he had no choice but to move over in respect for Derek Jeter. This is different. Wright is the Mets' best player; he's not moving to another position. He and Willie Randolph were the two people who stood and accepted the harsh music down the stretch, and after seeing how Randolph was carved up, now Wright has read that he is fungible.

With Tom Glavine likely gone, the Mets need pitching -- starting and relieving. Their starters weren't as bad as some think. They were second in the National League in quality starts and fifth in starters' ERA (4.40). But unless Pedro Martinez stages a miracle comeback, they really don't have a starter who'd be a No. 3 on an American League contender.

They also need Wright, his talent, his extraordinary character, his leadership, his face on the franchise's banners for the next decade. Which is why Jeff Wilpon owes his best player, big-time.

Mets lock up Marlon Anderson

for 2 yrs, $2.2 Mil (1.05+1.15).

At that price, a no brainer.

Some MetsGeek Thoughts on Humber

beerbourineman has the analysis in their "Prospect Geek" series. Here's some of the key quotes:

The PCL is extremely tough on pitchers. In fact, it contains some of the most hitter-friendly environments on the planet...

...[Humber's] overall numbers might not look impressive, but they are, due to the environment. In fact, that 1.24 WHIP led the PCL in 2007.

Conventional wisdom says that pitcher’s who undergo Tommy John surgery can take up to two full seasons to completely return to form (Kerry Wood, Erik Bedard, Dustin McGowan and Chris Capuano are examples of pitchers who follow this pattern). The most common problems that pitchers have to overcome post-TJ are losses of command and stamina. Humber has no problem with control, but those who followed his 2007 season can attest to the fact that he often started well, but wore down toward the end of starts...

The best comp for Humber in 2008 is one that Met fans would be very happy to see fulfilled: Dustin McGowan. McGowan, like Humber, was a fire-balling first round pick who was on the fast track to stardom before Tommy John surgery in 2004. After struggling in 2005 and 2006 to regain the feel of his pitches, McGowan had a breakout season in 2007, posting a 4.08 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, even coming within outs of posting a no-hitter against Colorado. McGowan also has a similar repertoire to Humber’s (or what Humber’s should be in 2008), pounding mid-90s fastballs high in the zone and relying on a sharp 12-to-6 curveball for strikeouts. Humber will be heading into 2008 as a 25-year-old, as McGowan did in 2007. I’ll predict a line of 14 wins, a 4.11 ERA, 167 strikeouts, 62 walks and 21 homers allowed over 184 innings, which would be a nice two-win upgrade over Tom Glavine.

And I don’t have to tell you all how valuable two wins can be.

The Hunt for Baseball in October...

...begins and perhaps ends for the Mets with the search for real starting pitching. Buster Olney has some comments on that front here.

I have to say I've read a lot of commentary by various people that there is concern whether Pelfrey will ever develop a solid, reliable 2nd and 3rd pitch, necessary if he is to become a truly dominant starting pitcher. If not, he certainly would make an outstanding reliever. I understand the Mets don't want to relegate him to the bullpen unless/until they've decided that's his fate in life since he'd be losing the stamina necessary as a SP by only working out of pen, but at some point they will need to make this call. If he's not a legit SP, trade him or move him to pen. They certainly made this call very early on for Heilman, against his strong wishes otherwise.

Mets snag 2 NL Gold Gloves

Beltran, his second, and Wright, his first.

More here.

Mets keep Alou, Easley

From the NY Post's Mets blog:

Two of the oldest Mets will be back for another season at Shea.
The team today announced it has picked up its $7.5 million option on 41-year-old outfielder Moises Alou for 2008 and re-signed soon-to-be 38-year-old free agent infielder Damion Easley to a one-year, $950,000 contract.

From the Post blog's comments:

whats the matter omar, AARP didnt have any other players for the other positions? to sign a soon to be 42 yr old leftfielder who plays half a season to a 7.5 m contract is irresponsible. he WILL get hurt AGAIN, as he ALWAYS does. omar minaya is proving to be one of the worst gm's in all of baseball.

Posted by: dc on October 31, 2007 09:03 PM

I have to disagree (resigning your best hitter statistically can never be that bad a move at 7.5), but the AARP line made me chuckle.

Free Agents

Rumors that the Mets will pursue Posada. I'm on the fence with this one since he'll probably command at least $12-13 M/yr for 3 years. I doubt he'll be as good as he was this year, but we don't have a lot of great options here, and Posada certainly adds the right character influence to the team and potentially a solid bat.

I wonder if the Mets will try to pursue Schilling. Normally I'd be opposed to going after someone his age, especially since I think it is essential that this team gets younger in the offseason. However, I like the fact that Schill is only asking for a one-year deal. My guess is Sox will want to keep him, since they can't quite be sure whether Daisuke will be another Beckett (rough first year, dominant after that), or show no improvement. Also can't be positive what they'll get out of a full season of Lester, Buccholz, etc. But I could see a rotation of Pedro, Schilling, Maine, Perez, Pelfrey, and then try to pick up Santana or Haren.

A-rod is most likely going to Dodgers with Torre, so Dodgers will be a force with offense + pitching. At least we have Penny's #.

Red Sox prove to be real deal

Unlike the Mets prospects--Pelf, Humber, Milledge, and Gomez--who are supposedly right on the verge of breaking through, the Red Sox prospects have broken through since day 1, right through world series. Whether you look at the superb hitting and fielding of pedroia and ellsbury, or the top-shelf pitching of papelbon, buccholz, and lester (not to mention gabbard who they traded for gagne), the red sox seemingly have not only the deepest and most talented farm system, but also the players who are most likely to make an impact immediately upon being brought into majors. Whether this is a reflection of: (a) good minor league coaching, (b) solid coaching and veterans at MLB level to guide the youngsters, (c) good scouting by Sox, or (d) a combo of all three, is unclear but probably (d). In any case you can all but guarantee that with the pitching, hitting, fielding and youth the Sox have they will be WS favorites for several years to come.

A-roid

Might the Mets pursue A-rod? I think there is an outside possibility, due to the following reason. The Mets desperately need pitching, yet it seems hard to envision a way that the Mets could pick up any top pitchers this offseason. With no good free agents, and a thin farm system for the Mets to use as trade bait, I'm not sure they will be able to land the top pitchers they need. So, it is possible that as an alternative they might go the way of the Yankees: all offense. If you pick up A-rod and move Wright to first, you can dump Delgado and also improve infield defense.

I must reiterate my earlier position though, the Mets should not pursue A-rod at the salary #s they're talking about. Unless Boras is willing to significantly drop A-rod's salary to $20 M/year or less, he's not worth it with his pathetic post-season stats.

NL

NL must stand for "novice league." Nice to see that the rockies are being embarrassed, about to be swept out of WS. The team that couldn't lose in NL, won 21 of 22, and 7 in a row in playoffs, is about to be handled by the red sox. Yet another embarrassment for the NL. Rockies shouldn't even be in WS.

Good news

Good news for me. I get to spend all day listening to the radio, TV, and co-workers talking about how great New England sports are. They are the best, and NY is the worst. The Red Sox are in WS, yet again, unlike the pathetic Mets and Tankees. The Pats are all but guaranteed another SuperBowl victory and perhaps a 16-0 season on top of it, while the Jets are losers. Luckily no one follows the NBA anymore (I haven't since 2000), b/c if I did then I'd have to hear about how the Celtics look like the team to beat in East, and they outmaneuvered every other GM with their offseason acquisitions, while Knicks are embroiled in Isiah Thomas land.

Oh yeah, and BC is now ranked #2.

Apparently no one else around the country knows how to assemble or manage a team, since no one can beat Boston.

Good stuff. Hope Omar and Tannenbaum are taking notes.

Jose Jose Jose

In considering Jose's season, I've read a lot of comments by different analysts and blogs, with a wide range of opinions as expected. However, one thing I really haven't seen discussed much is the importance of consistency. Look at Jose's #s on the season:

.280 / .354 / 119 R / 78 SB / 12 HR / 57 RBI

On the whole a good year. Not a great year, but certainly not a bad year, when only considering the final #s. The problem is that as is often the case with #s, they don't tell the whole story, the whole story being a brilliant first half and hideous second half. It is no good to end up with those #s the way Jose did. It doesn't help the team if he is that inconsistent during the season, regardless of how great his first half was. I realize baseball is a game of streaks, but the truly great players find a way to smooth those out as much as possible, and minimize extended downturns.

Now, despite the fact that Jose's been in the majors for 5 years, he is still only 24. So perhaps he needs another season or two to fully develop. And one very positive thing is that in almost every category he has generally improved one season to the next. Which gets to my key point: if I'm the Mets, I make sure I have someone emphasizing to Jose the importance of consistency and making that a goal next season. He has always had what seem to be very long hot and cold streaks, perhaps he needs another approach during cold times. Simply slap the bat and try to get a single here or there, it will make all the difference in the world. I think at times a lot of these players either forget or underestimate the value of a simple single. String a few of them in a row, and you've got a bona fide rally. You don't need a 4 HR game to pull yourself out of a slump and endear yourself with the fans again. Getting on base will do that.

Zero sum game

I can't say I'm too surprised that Sabathia and Carmona have had poor performances in the playoffs thus far. Carmona b/c he's so young, and Sabathia b/c he has so little post-season experience. In many cases the somewhat inflated #s these types of players put up in the regular season quickly get shattered once you hit the playoffs and tough competition. What is surprising, however, is just how well Westbrook and Byrd pitched against Sox, stepping up for their team. Very similar to Maine and Perez last year. Those are always pleasant surprises.

Trade

I'm sure there are a lot of good trades the Mets could make in the offseason that will improve their chances in '08; I certainly haven't thought through them. However, here's one off the top of my head that might make a lot of sense. Pick up Torii Hunter and trade Beltran to Red Sox. First, let's compare Hunter to Beltran to make sure we don't lose too much:

Hunter (career): .271 / .324 / 25 HR / 93 RBI / 88 R, age 32
Beltran (career): .280 / .354 / 29 HR / 107 RBI / 113 R, age 30
Hunter ('07): .287 / .334 / 28 HR / 107 RBI / 94 R
Beltran ('07): .276 / .353 / 33 HR / 112 RBI / 93 R

While Beltran has an edge, it's not huge, and their '07 production was very similar.

Now to the Red Sox. They are dying with the combo of Nancy Drew and Coco Crisp in OF. The run production stinks. While Manny is awesome and they look to have a super rookie in Ellsbury, they still need a good veteran offensive CF. While Coco is perhaps the best fielding CF I've seen this year, Sox wouldn't lose much defensively by switching to Beltran, and they'd gain a ridiculous amount of offense. So I'm sure if they don't get Torii themselves as FA, they'd love a trade for B-tran. In return, what do we get? Not sure exactly, but here are some attractive options:

Manny Delcarmen: RP, solid reliever, age 25. In '07: 44 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 41 Ks:17 BBs, 11 holds, 1 sv, 1 BLSV.
Clay Buccholz: SP, age 23, threw NH this year. In '07: 4 G, 22.7 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 22 Ks:10 BBs, 0 HR. One of Sox's top pitching prospects.
Dustin Pedroia: rookie 2B, likely to win AL rookie of the year, age 24. In '07: .317 / .380 / 8 HR / 50 RBI / 86 R. Turned 78 DP with .990 fielding % (5th best of all MLB 2B).
Kevin Youkilis: 1B, age 28. Career: .280 / .383 / 15 HR / 79 RBI / 93 R. Perfect 1.000 fielding %, 0 errors in '07. We could dump Delgado and his huge salary.

Good to Great

I am reminded of a saying I once heard with respect to company performance, that the enemy of being great is not being bad, but rather being good. The reasoning is quite simple: if you are bad, everyone knows it and it is easy to justify the radical restructuring necessary to turn things around and become great. When you are good, however, performance improvements are much harder to undertake. Who wants to rock the boat and risk making things worse when they are already good?

The problem is that good is not good enough. The Mets must strive to be great. A lot of people say keep player 'x' or 'y', for example Glavine. While it's true that Glavine is certainly an above average pitcher and certainly good, what he is not (anymore) is great. And the Mets need great. If Glavine is in our top 3 starters next year, we will not be great. Same goes for the collective lot of Green, Delgado, PLD, Duque, Castillo, Chavez, and Heilman. They are definitely good, no question. But they are not great. Not once you factor in either the extended time off they each face due to injuries or drop-off in performance due to aging.

This will be the biggest question confronting Mets management and fans - do they want a good team, or a great team? Picking up re-treads is simply not a way to be great. I hope the Mets try to next-level it in '08 and '09 and go for being great.

Just say no...

...to Boras and A-Rod.

So over the past week or two we had kicked around the idea (as had all of NY) that what if the Mets traded Reyes and went after A-rod. I've thought about it more and I am strongly against this idea for a few reasons.

1. Post-season performance. While A-rod is one of the best (see point 2) during the regular season, his inability to produce in post-season a la Bonds cannot go overlooked. I'm sorry, but getting your team to the playoffs is only half the battle - what you do in the playoffs is just as important, perhaps more. So I have a hard time getting fired up about someone who doesn't perform well in playoffs, despite whatever #s they put up in regular season.

2. Regular-season #s and $. Boras claims A-rod is perhaps the most valuable player of all time, and is seeking completely over-the-top, unjustifiable salary #s. I don't think he even comes close to being worth it. For one, how much better is he really than other players? A-rod's seasonal career averages: .306 / .389 / 44 HR / 128 RBI. Pretty good. But if A-rod is worth that much, then how about Manny Ramirez: .313 / .409 / 41 HR / 133 RBIs. Better #s. How about Mike Piazza: .308 / .377 / 36 HR / 113 RBI? How about Ortiz: .289 / .384 / 36 HR / 120 RBIs (and that includes his lean years in Min!) Or Vlad Guerrero: .325 / .391 / 37 HR / 119 RBIs. Or Barry Bonds: .298 / .444 / 41 / 108. And so on and so on. A-rod's #s are excellent, don't get me wrong. But I just don't think they are that much better than quite a few players around the league. Boras is asking too much money for someone who isn't clearly the Michael Jordan of the league, especially when you consider his disappearance in October every year.

3. Age. Despite Boras' claims that A-rod can play until he's 45, I doubt he'll play a good 3B or SS that long. At some point his fielding #s on left side of IF will fall off, so he will become a defensive liability. Perhaps he's still got at least 3-5 more years before that happens, but nonetheless he's already 32.

The Mets have a lot more needs than adding some RBIs during the regular season. They need to seriously beef up their pitching staff if they want to go anywhere in postseason. Look at the 4 teams in ALDS and NLDS. Boston and Cleveland had #1 and #3 ERAs in AL, respectively, while Arizona and Colorado were 4 and 8 in NL. So 3 of the 4 teams had top 5 ERAs, that's not a coincidence. Mets should save their money to go for pitching, and then work on batting approach in spring training.

Alex Nelson plays the Blame Game

Over at MetsGeek, Alex has posted a very clear-headed analysis of Minaya's performance last offseason. Well worth reading. In the end, he finds the Scho and Mota signings the most questionable moves, moreso than the trades which look bad with the benefit of hindsight. His discussion of the roster moves follows:

...Minaya isn’t in danger of being fired, but there is still a bad taste left over from the job he did with the roster construction.

But is he really to blame for every fault with the composition of the team? I’m not sure. To figure that out, here are two questions we can ask about each “mistake” Omar made this year:

1. Could the [departing/arriving/returning] player’s [success/failure] have realistically been forecasted prior to the move?

2. Did the player [departing/arriving/returning] fit into the team’s long- and short-term plans?

I’m going to attempt to apply these questions to a couple of the maneuvers that Minaya has taken the most flak for.

November 15th: Traded RP Heath Bell and RP Royce Ring to the Padres for OF Ben Johnson and RP Jon Adkins

With the bullpen’s late-season meltdown, many suddenly noticed that Bell had been lights-out for the Padres, finishing with a 2.02 ERA over 93.7 innings, while striking out 104, walking 30, and giving up just three homers. I can’t say his success came as a huge surprise to many at MetsGeek; Bell was named the site’s official pitcher way back in spring 2005. Here were Bell’s career numbers up to the point of the trade:

Where ERA K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9
Minors 3.17 10.4 2.5 7.9 0.71
Majors 4.92 8.8 2.5 10.8 1.17

Great strikeout numbers, great walk numbers, but he had a tendency to leave the ball out over the plate at the big league level which resulted in too many hits and more homers than you’d like. Ultimately, his success wasn’t a fluke, but a reflection of his prior performances.

Did Bell fit into the team’s short-term plans? Honestly, probably not. Bell was out of options and didn’t offer any sort of roster flexibility if he failed to impress Randolph and Rick Peterson (again). After giving up some big innings in 2006, the coaching staff’s faith in Bell was obviously shaken—not to mention the fans’ faith as well. There was no outrage when Bell departed. Long-term? 29-year-old middle relievers just shouldn’t factor into those plans. I was sorry to see him go, but I also thought he needed a change of scenery. He just wasn’t going to get a fair shake in New York.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Johnson, who was Minaya’s primary target in this deal. Johnson was a toolsy prospect who never quite figured things out at either the minor or major league levels. Projected as a fourth outfielder, who could provide some pop off the bench, despite possessing limited contact ability and on-base skills. Adkins was an arm with no upside but had the benefit of still having options, providing some depth to make up for the losses of Ring and Bell.

Final verdict: Letting Bell go wasn’t a big mistake; getting Johnson and Adkins in return probably was. Had they received an arm with upside and a safer fifth outfielder in return instead (the inverse of what they actually received), I’d be happier with the deal.

November 20th: Traded RP Matt Lindstrom and RP Henry Owens for SP Adam Bostick and SP Jason Vargas

Owens pitched okay in 2007, even winning the closer’s job at one point, but got hurt frequently and really didn’t make much of an impact. The big loss is Lindstrom. Was Lindstrom’s success something I saw coming? Not really, but I should have. He had made nice strides after repeating AA at Binghamton, where he went 2-4 with a 3.76 ERA while striking out 54 and walking 14 over 40.2 innings. The walk and strikeout rates represented huge improvements over anything he had shown previously (especially the walk rate). Lindstrom had a phenomenal arm, but he was considered very raw for a 27-year-old pitcher due to his going on a Mormon mission early in his career. Owens was in a similar place thanks to his early years as a catcher.

Vargas was a guy with a pretty good fastball and a great changeup. He was considered relatively major league ready, had solid stuff, and had performed fairly well at the minor league level. In truth, he was a good guy to have around as a sixth or seventh starter, which was important when the bottom of the rotation was as uncertain as it was.

Was Lindstrom in the Mets short-term plans? No. I felt he needed at least a couple months at AAA to determine whether the 40 innings at Binghamton represented true improvement. Since the Marlins were desperate for help in the bullpen, they kept him with the big club and he pitched very well (3.37 ERA with strong peripherals). Lindstrom might have fitted into the Mets’ long-term plans, but it’s tough to really think of minor league relievers in that way.

Final verdict: Omar traded two minor league relievers—albeit good ones—for two so-so minor league starters. I have mixed feelings about this one; I generally like it whenever you can turn relievers into starters, and the depth Vargas provided was reassuring at the time. But Brian Bannister, a pitcher I liked better than Vargas, was around, and Lindstrom had really become an intriguing pitcher. With his stuff and a breakthrough in AA, I’d want to see more. A mistake, though really only when considered next to…

December 6th: Traded SP Brian Bannister to the Royals for RP Ambiorix Burgos

Bannister had made the Mets out of spring training and hadn’t pitched great. But his minor league track record was fantastic, and it was reasonable to assume he’d sort out his control issues with time, which is just what he did with the Royals in a great rookie campaign. His strikeout ratio is poor and he gives up too many flies for my liking, making him due for a regression next season, but he’s certainly capable of being an average starter in the AL.

Burgos is where things went wrong. Burgos has a live arm, and he had a promising season at the big league level.in 2005, but struggled badly in 2006. The truth of the matter was Burgos’s total lack of control has always prevented him from being a good pitcher at any level. But that wasn’t even the most distressing thing. In a blog post, Kansas City Star columnist Joe Posnanski questioned his pitching intelligence, reporting that he had a tendency to fall in love with his splitter and had no feel for the art whatsoever. In a particularly prescient moment, he even questioned Burgos throwing so hard his first days in camp, wondering if elbow ligament surgery was on the horizon.

Bannister could have fit into the Mets’ short-term plans by serving in Vargas’s supposed role as a starter in reserve at New Orleans quite capably. Long-term, he didn’t fit in well; top pitching prospects Phil Humber and Mike Pelfrey were around, as were Oliver Perez and John Maine. There just wasn’t much room for him. Meanwhile, Burgos fit into the Mets’ long-term plans better, since he was more of a reclamation project than a true major-league ready reliever. I’m sure when Minaya traded for him, he had images of Billy Wagner’s replacement in his head.

Final verdict: Mistake. Bannister was more valuable to the Mets than Vargas, and Minaya got mesmerized by Burgos, who still has time to turn things around.

Signed RP Guillermo Mota and RP Scott Schoeneweis to multi-year deals

I won’t spend too much time on this, but it was a mistake. There were legitimate questions about both players’ performances, especially with Mota serving a steroid suspension to start the season. Furthermore, it’s never a good idea to sign veteran relievers to long-term deals, and it’s even worse when they’ve had long stretches of ineffectiveness throughout their careers.

Omar Minaya did not have a great offseason. However, some of the moves don’t look as bad in retrospect. Heath Bell had a great season, but he didn’t fit into the Mets’ plans, and with him out of options there was a fair chance he would have been lost for nothing come April anyway. And while Lindstrom and Owens were promising pitchers, let’s not ignore that they were old minor league relievers with little-to-no experience past AA. They could have been useful, but Minaya did turn them into two starting pitchers who weren’t without upside. Even the Bannister trade wasn’t totally without merit at the time, because he really didn’t fit into the Mets’ plans either, and Omar wanted some more relief depth. They really only don’t make sense when considered together. I can’t defend the latter two free agent acquisitions; they were bad contracts at the time and look worse now.

Ultimately, the sorts of moves that were working for him the year before, just didn’t pan out this season.

As they say in the Bronx:

it's all about the rings. And the for the Yanks, it's now been seven (7) straight seasons of leading the ML in payroll and not taking the prize.

Sometimes you get the bear, and sometimes the Tribe can throw Paul Byrd at you.

Better luck next year, Bombers.

Without Torre. And maybe not A-Rod.

Good job, Phils

Mets gift wrapped the NL East for them. Phils stamped it return to sender.

It's an East Coast Thang

When will the Mets or Yankees be better than Sox, or Jets or Giants be better than Pats? That NY - with two teams in each sport - has been shown up by Boston constantly for the past 6 years is growing old. It is time for NY teams to rise up again and win it all.

Jose

As I think about it more, I am leaning strongly against trading Reyes (unless some ridiculously obvious trade presented itself, i.e. Reyes for Santana straight up). I think the Mets should continue to build around the trio of Reyes-Wright-Beltran, but they need to really sit down with Reyes in a few weeks and have a serious conversation. First, they need to understand what happened in the 2nd half of the season. Was his dropoff in production due solely to fatigue (as people speculated about Wright last year after HR derby)? If so, then they need to adjust next year so that he's not playing 160 games and attempting 99 SBs. If it wasn't due to fatigue, then it's due to approach and plate discipline. On the positive side his SOs have held steady at ~80 for 3 years, while his BBs have increased. However, he had way too many fly ball outs. I think they need to adjust his swing and approach (this is true for a lot of the team, but especially Reyes). They need to set a target for Reyes of .310+ BA and .390+ OBP. All he should be thinking about all season is how to maintain those #s. Forget the HRs and 3Bs, focus on hitting singles and if possible stretching them into doubles. It probably wasn't helpful that at the end of '06 Willie made a comment that he could see Reyes being a 20-25 HR guy. I'm sure that enters his thinking and swinging. In any case, if they lay down the law with him and force him to focus on BA and OBP, he will be dominant.

I would say do what you need to do to pick up Santana, then have Santana / Pedro / Maine / Perez / Pelfrey. Put Duque in pen, try to pick up at least two other arms to replace Sele / Scho / Mota / Sosa or whoever is out. Keep Alou, get rid of Green and start Milledge in right. Endy and Gomez are subs, although Gomez could really use another full season at AAA IMO. Dump PLD, sign Posada and give Castro more PT. Whether or not you keep Castillo depends on what terms he wants; if too rich then dump him, and start Gotay for now. I would think though that if Castillo can continue to hit .290+ and give you solid defense, he's worth it. An infield of Wright, Gotay, and Delgado is probably too much of a defensive liability (unless gotay improves), you'll need to find a better 2B and 1B. Not sure where you do that though, since Teixeira isn't FA until '08 and will be resigned by Braves this year anyway.

If I had to guess though, no way we get Santana. We just don't have enough young proven prospects to make it happen. Twins will probably want Pelfrey, Humber, and Milledge / Gomez in return, at least. The problem is one of numbers: with practically no one good available as FA, we can't afford to give trade away all those players we are banking on to be starters next year. I don't think we can keep all of Green, Delgado, Alou, Duque, and Glavine. It's just a re-tread of the same team from the last two years, and they are not getting any younger or less likely to be injured. But who do you replace them with, if we have to trade Milledge, Pelfrey, etc.?

Kaz Matsui

That's good stuff. Grand slam, 3B, 2B, 3-5 with 5 RBIs.

Glavine will not exercise his player option

So says ESPN. This means that the Mets hands cannot be forced into bringing him back. I think it would be all but impossible for Tommy to perform here going forward, so a parting of the ways seems inevitable.

I will miss for Glavine for all the great attributes he brought to the table, on which I elaborated here.

Alas, Tom, in your final three starts, you have stomped on my broken heart. Why Tommy, why?

Party like it's 1999 (or 2007)

Red Sox show how to party after clinching at sports bar right across the street from Fenway. Perhaps the metties could take a lesson in '08 and save the celebrating for when they actually have something to celebrate.

Walking wounded

The Mets seem to be piling up injuries faster than the law of statistics would suggest is expected. Of course we can write-off the older players as expected, including Valentin, Alou, and Duque. Now add to that from the end of last year Pedro, Sanchez, and Delgado (wrist at start of season, broken hand at end of season). But what's troubling is the younger players also injured: Beltran just had arthroscopic surgery on both his knees, Maine is now indicating he had an injured hip all year and might need surgery, and Humber has already had Tommy John surgery.

Omar's in a very bad place this offseason. Practically no one the Mets need is available as free agent, and we don't exactly have a lot of young cheap prospects to trade. The best bet may be a three-way trade between the Mets, a team with a player we want, and a team who would take one of our older vets that they think could add to their chances next year (e.g. a Delgado, Alou, ...) All I know is we need Santana and nothing less. I think grab torii as well.

Willie on Mike & the Dog

Audio here.

Especially interesting hearing his reaction to the questions on the attitude displayed by his young players. Also, on first hearing, it sounds like he's hedging about Omar forcing his hand on choosing some starters down the stretch, but ultimately it sounds like Humber and Lawrence was Omar's call. Also, he makes no bones about being aggravated by Wagner's comments, and basically admits that it was an unnecessary distraction at an inopportune time.

Omar on Mike & the Dog

A long, thorough, and tough interview, that sheds a lot of light on Omar's thinking.

Check it out here.

Let's make it official-

Willie's going to be back next year. More coverage of the annoucement here.

As disappointed as I am with how the season ended--and the manager is not free of blame--I feel in my gut like this is the right move.

Kevin Kernan of the Post made the case for retaining Willie:

OMAR Minaya made his first good decision of the Mets much too early offseason yesterday by keeping Willie Randolph as manager.

If Minaya had fired Randolph, it would have been another loss for the team that has turned losing into an art form. Plus, with Randolph gone, the bull's-eye would have shifted from Randolph's back squarely onto Minaya's. No GM wants that to be the case.

This way, if the Mets stagger out of the gate next year, Minaya still has someone to blame and Randolph will be history. But as George Steinbrenner might say in a statement: "It's on Omar and Willie."

Over the last 17 games of the season Randolph was one of the few Mets who appeared to care and when he met with his team behind closed doors after that last terrible loss, Randolph cried because of the golden opportunity that slipped away from the Mets.

If only his Mets cared as much about winning as he did.

That said, Randolph, like all the Mets has to make changes. His No. 1 challenge is to make the Mets care more about winning. He has to make them understand there are consequences for their childless actions. They need to worry more about the game than their dance routines...

...It wouldn't hurt either if Minaya helped Randolph out by acquiring the ace the Mets desperately need. That player is sitting out there in Minnesota.

If you want to make Willie Randolph a better manager Omar, trade for Johan Santana. That would also make you a better GM.

Santana said he would waive his no-trade clause for the right deal so this should be the Mets No. 1 priority. Not looking for scapegoats when the reason they failed is simple: the players choked away the season.

Essentially the Mets did not adhere to the most basic premise of pro sports: Don't fear your opponent, but respect him. The Mets thought they were so much better than everyone else.

What Omar has to do now that he has retained Randolph is get out of his way and let Willie run the club. Get out of the way and get players. There has to be fewer visits to the clubhouse from Omar and his top aides.

Minaya is a nice guy who tends to be too friendly with his players. He has to draw the line. He's management. They're players. He has to remember that and cannot undermine Randolph's authority by being everybody's buddy. If Randolph gets all over Jose Reyes, the GM has to back him up. Players like Lastings Milledge should not come up to the majors thinking they can get away with antics that would not be tolerated in other organizations.

But they do get away with them. The organization has to believe in tough love.

The challenge will be difficult for Minaya, Randolph and the Mets. Because now the only question that matters is this one and it will be asked every day: What did you do today as a team, as an organization, as a GM, as a manager, as a player to prevent another epic collapse?

No one will care about anything else. The Mets don't need scapegoats right now, they need to change their way of thinking and bring in a No. 1 pitcher.

Problem solved.

All I want for Christmas...

OK, so it's a little early to be putting together my Christmas wish list. But, since day one of the offseason began two days ago for the Mets, maybe it's not that early. Here are four things I'd request from the Mets.

1. From Willie: Please, please, please set the tone early on that focus and discipline and professionalism at the plate are required, not optional. I think the Mets cost themselves a lot of runs this year by showing complete disinterest at the plate when they stepped up with 2 outs and no RISP. That's basically wasting 9 outs a game, or 1/3 of your chances. I watched a lot of Sox and Yanks games, and it seems to me that in most cases regardless of the situation (up 5 runs, down 5 runs, 1st inning or 9th inning), those teams always came to the plate looking to get a hit with 2 outs. They mounted a lot of rallies that way. After all, it only takes a double and single, or walk + SB + single to score a run. Not that outrageous to conceive. The Mets, by contrast, had a "well this inning is basically over so let's just hurry up and get this at bat over so I can get back to the dugout" look in their eyes whenever they came to the plate with 2 outs and no RISP. Even if you score no runs, it's still a good opportunity to drive up pitch count - which is something the Sox and Yanks excelled at, but Mets were not good at. So, I'd like to see Willie bench players early in the season if they consistently show a lack of focus.

2. From Omar: Dump Scho and Sele. Hold on to Mota, b/c players off the 'roids can often turn it around the following year. We should have a good sense of whether or not Mota fits this mold by April or May.

3. From Omar: Trade or do not re-sign at least some of the following players: Glavine, Delgado, Duque, and Green. Dump some salary here to make room for request #4.

4. Pick up a #1 pitcher, preferably Santana. If not, look to trade with Indians, Dodgers, Pads, Sox (red or white), or A's. Then, consider a rotation of: new pitcher / Pedro / Maine / Perez / Pelfrey, and move Duque to the pen. Even though you will be overpaying for a reliever, he will be phenomenal: he can eat up a ton of innings, and baffle hitters along the way.

Los Bravos...

...are starting to move quickly in offseason. Right away they cut Andruw Jones, an expected move. Reasoning is given here:

The Braves plan to use the money they'll save on Jones to bolster their starting rotation -- a glaring weakness beyond John Smoltz and Tim Hudson -- and to sign first baseman Mark Teixeira, who made $9 million this year and is eligible for arbitration.

I forgot Teixeira wasn't signed to a multi-year deal. Wonder if there's any chance Mets could snag him if he goes for arbitration and value goes too high. That would be a massive coup, and instantly bolster the lineup. Can you imagine a 3-4-5-6 of Wright-Beltran-Teixeira-Alou? Or Beltran-Tex-Wright-Alou.

Now, I wonder what pitchers the Braves had in mind to pursue. Not a lot of good options on FA market. And fortunately I don't think they have any prospects of interest as trade bait.

In summary

Fredo posted a similar quote below, but I reproduce another one from Delgado here:

"I think we have to play harder, execute better and stay focused for 162 games," Delgado said.

That this quote is in fact true, and confirms suspicions that the Mets were often mailing it in, is infuriating to no end. The whole point of having veteran players and role models on the team, and a coach who learned under Torre, is precisely to avoid this type of situation. They are supposed to kick the ass of any rookies who have the attitude of entitlement and lackadaisical approach, keeping them honest that "the division is theirs to lose" is a loser attitude. You've got to go out there and fight for it every day.

The sad thing is that this attitude permeated all aspects of the team. The batting throughout the entire season. Fielding down the stretch. And pitchers would constantly seem disinterested in slamming the door on an inning once they had 2 outs. I don't know how many 2 out rallies against the Mets I had to watch this year, that started with no one on base. Or Maine and others would cruise through three then seem like completely different players who were physically but not mentally present come innings 4-6.

This ought to be a solid lesson for those who remain on the team, one that I hope is grounded into their heads every game and every inning next season.

Buster Olney steals my idea

From his blog:

Santana for Reyes make sense?
posted: Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Johan Santana is willing to waive his no-trade clause if the Twins want to deal him, writes La Velle Neal.

If the Twins look to deal him, the Angels and Dodgers and Diamondbacks might have the best collection of prospects from which to make trades. In the aftermath of the Mets' collapse, here's another thought -- Minnesota could ask for Jose Reyes in a deal, offering Santana, shortstop Jason Bartlett in return for Reyes and outfielder Carlos Gomez and at least one pitcher (Mike Pelfrey?).

Pure speculation, but it makes a lot of sense for both sides to have the conversation -- the Mets would get the kind of staff ace they need, the Twins could benefit in a big way from landing Reyes, who is already locked up to an affordable multiyear deal (he'll make a total of $18.75 million over the next three seasons, and has an $11 million option for 2011). If the team trades Santana and lands the affordable contract of Reyes, Minnesota would have enough money to re-sign Torii Hunter.

Before the Twins get to that point, of course, they should make their best possible pitch to sign Santana, and if he says no and seems headed for free agency, than they should talk to the Dodgers, Angels, Mets and any other interested team. If they did work out a Reyes trade, this is what the top of their lineup could look like next year:

SS Reyes
LF Gomez
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
CF Torii Hunter
DH TBD
3B TBD
2B Alexi Casilla


The Twins would have a team in place that could contend next year, if Francisco Liriano were to come back and be a factor. Joe Mauer soon will learn if he needs hernia surgery. Liriano remains on schedule from elbow surgery, writes Joe Christensen.

This makes sense for the Mets because they would have the young ace pitcher they desperately need -- but the Mets or any other team should insist, before making any deal, that they be given a negotiating window to talk with Santana about his next contract.

Reyes and a lower level prospect for Santana, OK. I don't think I could do Reyes&Pelfrey&Gomez for Santana.

BTW, Bartlett's career stats, from espen:

Batting
Year G/AB Avg/HR/RBI BB/K
2004 8/12 .083/0/1 1/1
2005 74/224 .241/3/16 21/37
2006 99/333 .309/2/32 22/46
2007 140/51 .265/5/43 50/73

He's been with Minny his whole career. He also had 10 SB in '06 and 23 in '07

Good news, boys!

These just arrived in the mail over the weekend:

So I guess now I can invite SHK and DC to join me at Shea Thursday night. How about Cristo's for some pre-game eats and beverages at 5:00?

Willie

Interesting tact by Wilpon, if true. He has basically told Minaya that he either sinks or swims with Willie, his call. I do have to reiterate that this is the 2nd year in a row that the Mets have had a September meltdown and finished poorly. While clearly Omar and the players bear a huge amount of the responsibility for this debacle of a season, this particular aspect has to be on Willie.

Oh, and in case you needed another reason to hate Scho.

More questions than answers

There's only one thing to do: focus on the fight to get better, and not dwell over the misery of the past few weeks. As Blutarski said, "Did we quit when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"

That said, there are going to be some large questions that confront the Wilpons and (assuming they keep him) Omar. In no particular order those questions are:

1) Is Jose Reyes part of this team's core, or put another way, can Jose Reyes be a part of a championship core?

Jose has been baffling me and frustrating me since arriving in Flushing. Obviously a player of great talents and gifts, he simply has not been able to put it together and maximize those talents. On the upside, he's got a quick bat, some power, blinding speed, a great arm, good range at short, and all the tools needed to be one of the best SS in MLB.

On the downside, he's immature, unfocused, free-swinging, has poor strike zone recognition, poor pitch recognition, classless (constantly yapping and showing up his opponents), selfish (refusing to accept a lower HR total when that's what would help the team), tremendously unclutch this year (hitting .187 over his last 32 games, and horrible RISP-2O), and he sulks and quits giving effort when things aren't going his way.

You'd like to trade Reyes for a player with similar talent who's not such a head case. Problem is, Phils aren't dealing Rollins.

Point being, you're not going to find a SS of equal talents. So the real question is, can Jose become the type of player that can be a champion, which is not necessarily the same thing as a great player? Can the right manager help him become so? Or maybe the right balance in the clubhouse (maybe a new veteran leadership presence) could get him there? Or is Jose just Jose, kind of like Manny being Manny--just a permanent enigma (although in Jose's case, without the head petting)?

Jose's future, in my mind, is the #1 question for ownership to address, because Jose's trade value at this point in his career is so high that a decision to trade him could lead to a blue chip franchise player coming back--this decision must be made before other needs can be assessed.

2) Can this team move forward under Willie?

The question is not "does Willie deserve to keep his job," even though that's what most fans will be asking. The Wilpons are just finishing, or maybe just finished, paying Art Howe. They just locked Randolph up to a 3 year extension last winter. They don't want to pay another manager to go fishing.

If ownership thinks the team can win under Willie, they'll keep him, even if there's a "better option" out there. Of course, whether the team can follow Willie without being forever reminded of this collapse is an open question at this point. It is so hard to know what goes on behind closed doors, and hard to know if Randolph is still respected by the players. Or whether any blown lead or 3 game losing streak will cause deja vu to settle in over a Randolph-lead clubhouse.

If Willie stays, the next question becomes if he is willing to confront players, and change the culture of this team. It's been a very laissez-faire culture all year long. That might work when you have a team full of veteran professionals, but not when you've got kids like Reyes and Milledge running around making spectacles of themselves.

3) Can this team be championship threat next year?

Look, we know there are FA holes that Mets will have open next year b/c of players who were opening day starters in '07 whose contracts are up: LF (Alou), RF (Green), 2B (Valentin), C (LoDuca). Castillo and Castro's contracts are also up. With the possible combination of retaining some of these players and the rest of the FA market out there, can the Mets realistically win the title next year? That will go a long way towards determining who is retained and what kids get the opportunity. They're not starting the season with Milledge in LF, Gomez in RF, and Gotay at 2B if they think they have a shot to get to the Series.

Of course, if the pitching just isn't available, why not give the kids a shot? The fans love to see home grown talent, the ownsership loves to pay the smaller contract, and the GM loves to have budget flexibility to go after players at other positions when needs come up.

4) Is Delgado finished?

Delgado has 2 years left on a rich contract. If we use a linear model to predict next year's performance, Delgado will hit .039 in 2008. OK, maybe not, but the fall off has been pretty dramatic. I was worried before '07 started that when the end comes for Carlos, it will come quickly. Delgado might have some value left if only for the power numbers he put up this year (still decent in absolute terms, just terrible relative to his career). Does management want to dump him now and not pay him another 8 figure sum in '08 to go .232/22/83, at which point he will also have no value and another season of an 8-figure salary due him. There are no inspiring FA's to be had at 1B (Sean Casey seems the best of the lot, with his .290-something average and single digits homers). Then again, could Wright be moved to 1B or 2B to accomodate a new 3B (ARod? Cabrera?) and eliminate his throwing issues, all in one fell swoop?

5) Is Santana available in a trade?

The answer to this question changes everything.

Surprising, yet not really

Well, I hate to say this collapse was foreseeable and inevitable, but over the past year we've all pointed out the obvious. First, I remind you that we blogged about the exact same September meltdown by the Mets last year. Two years in a row has to be on the manager's head.

Next, we all knew the starting pitching and relief pitching crew assembled by Omar were suspect at best, called out by analysts all season as well as our blogs. We had at least 20 or 30 blogs on this, too numerous to recount, but I highlight the calls about Bannister and bullpen.

Finally, it was obvious that this team was not going to have as good an offense as last year.

I think the entire team, from Minaya to Randolph to the players are to blame. Omar assembled a team that was old, injury-prone, and full of question marks we all identified. Willie had questionable bullpen and lineup strategies, and little to no discipline of the players. And finally the players themselves, who showed poor discipline at the plate all year, sloppy defense down the stretch, no heart or professionalism over the last month, and completely hideous, indescribable pitching.

The bottom line is that I think this meltdown will demoralize and inhibit this set of players for years, and will prevent them from winning down the stretch in a tight race. The inevitable solution is that an infusion of a lot of fresh players and removal of existing players will be key to avoid this. Not sure who you put on this list yet, but definite goners have to be Mota, Scho, and Sele. On the fence have to be Wags, Heilman, Glav (at the money he's going to want, can't afford to keep someone who only pitches as well as the ump is willing to call a sloppy strike zone), Duque (can we afford to pay someone that injury prone that much?), Green, PLD, and Delgado. I think the only definite keepers are Wright, Maine, Pedro, Perez, Milledge, and Reyes (although I think there needs to be a serious sit-down with him in the offseason, to discuss his constant late season meltdowns and tendency towards free-swinging poor plate discipline being flat unacceptable). I'm not sure who you consider trade bait, but the Mets have a LOT of holes to fill, and Omar is going to have his hands full. I don't think Mets will be able to retain Milledge, Gomez, Pelfrey, Humber, and F-Mart, and still make the trades they desperately need to make.

This is a disgrace for the #1 payroll in NL. Absolutely disgusting. I certainly had hoped that all my complaints before and during the season were just excessive caution and pessimism, and Mets would prevail despite these weaknesses. Unfortunately the holes indeed turned out to be real, and too great to overcome. At least with the Mets season over I can now turn my focus to the atrocious Jets, who just lost a stinker to the Bills.

T-minus 30 minutes to gametime

We've got a family tailgate going. Bratwurst on the grill. Potato pancakes and applesauce to top off the Oktoberfest feel. Some Michelob. The missus in a Mets shirt. I'm going with the snow white Jersey and blue hat.

Lets go Mets!

Let the finger pointing begin

Not content to keep any squabbles behind the closed clubhouse doors, Billy Billy Billy has let 'er rip in the second most private place he could think of: an interview with the NY Post. Here we go:

"We've been throwing four innings a night - for months!" Wagner told the magazine. "Our pitching coach has no experience talking to a bullpen. He can help you mechanically, but he can't tell you emotions. He has no idea what it feels like. And neither does Willie. They're not a lot of help, put it that way."

So let me get this straight, Petersen can help you pitch, but he can't help you compensate for your unhappy childhood? Now you know how this guy wore out his welcome in Philly...

Tomorrow's gonna get really interesting

if this quote from Ramirez captures the mood of the Fish:

"I don't care if it's broke," said Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who left the game after being struck on the left hand by a pitch from Maine (X-rays showed the hand was not broken). "I'm gonna play tomorrow. [Screw] everybody on the Mets. I'm going to kick their [butts]."

Not exactly "it's water under the bridge." A beanball-fest ain't out of the question, especially with the Marlins done after tomorrow.

Here's the he-said she-said on how the 2nd bench clear came to pass:

"When they threw the ball behind Castillo, he was saying to me, 'I'm going to throw the ball to third base and hit you.'" Reyes said. "I thought he was kidding with me because he's good friends with me. When he went to the mound he said, 'Do you want to fight?' I said yes because I thought he was kidding with me. He went after me and then I said, 'OK, let's fight then.'"

Olivo responded: "I went to the mound, waiting for the pitcher and Reyes started talking [crap] about me. He told me he wanted to fight. I said OK. [Marlins third baseman Miguel] Cabrera told him, 'Take it easy.' [Reyes] called me to third base and I showed up. He told me, 'Let's you and me fight.' I said, 'OK, let's go.'"

Wha Happened? Neither of these explanations make a lick of sense.

Best of a bad situation

The last 3 weeks were terrible, but today worked out great. Mets won. Phils lose. Pads lose.

So here are the scenarios for tomorrow:

1&2) Mets Win, Phils Lose, Pads Win or Lose

Mets NL East Champs, Pads WC, Phils go home. Mets get Pads in round 1, D'Backs get Cubs.

3) Mets Win, Phils Win, Pads Win

Mets vs. Phils in 1 game playoff, winner is NL East Champ, loser goes home.
Pads WC. If Mets win playoff, they would get Pads in round 1.

4) Mets Win, Phils Win, Pads Lose

Mets vs. Phils in 1 game playoff, winner is NL East Champ, loser plays Pads in one game playoff Tuesday for WC.

If Mets win NL East and Phils take the Pads, Mets get Cubs in round 1. If Mets lose to Phils but win the WC, they get the D'Backs in round 1.

5&6) Mets Lose, Phils Win, Pads Win or Lose

Phils NL East Champs, Pads WC, Mets go home

7&8) Mets Lose, Phils Lose, Pads Win or Lose

Phils vs. Mets one game playoff, winner NL East champ, loser goes home,
Pads WC

Gary Cohen summed it up nicely

1 Hit, 2 Walks, 14 Strikeouts, and the best pitching performance by a Met in years.

You've got to love this game

5th inning, Maine's throwing a no-hitter, Mets are piling on runs, and now the first bench clearing brawl I can remember.

Just as a side-note, the Mets announcing crew is so down on Reyes. They wanted him benched for not running out the ground ball (as did 80% of respondents from their cell phone text message poll), then rode him for laughing and joking with Lindstrom while the teams nearly got into a bench clearing brawl. Then, after his gesture did set off a scrum when Olivo charged Reyes, it was interesting to see Reyes meekly vanish into a Cabrera bear-hug while the other 40 guys on the field were ready to rumble. It's like the "don't care too much club" with Reyes and Cabrera. Not the "they pay me whether we win or not" club like Cabrera, and more and more, like Jose.

JT has it covered

When you're down and troubled
and you need a helping hand
and nothing, whoa nothing is going right.

If the sky above you
should turn dark and full of clouds
and that old north wind
should begin to blow

Keep your head together
and call [for #5] out loud
and soon [the playoffs] will be knocking upon your door.

[The Phillies] can be so cold.
They'll hurt you and desert you.
Well they'll take your soul if you let them.
Oh yeah, but don't you let them.

You just call out [Wright's] name
and you know wherever [he is]
[He'll] come [raking], [and start winning] again.

Winter, spring, summer or fall
All you got to do is call
And he'll be there...
You got a friend.

Time for some mean reversion, baby!

HT: NY Times

Time to bleed Orange & Blue

Sometimes being a Mets fan is all milk & honey. 1986, for example. Then there's...

1986 was a sweet year.

Right now is one of those rough patches. This situation is like one of those long hikes over rugged mountains, wearing only flip-flops and carrying a suitcase of beer in front of you until your back goes out, b/c you thought that when your friend said you were going "camping", that meant pulling up to a campsite and drinking beer, and not hiking overland to a remote river location. But I digress.

If my back has to hurt and I have to delay my beer consumption, I will do so. Because I'm a baseball fan. And a Mets fan. And I bleed Orange & Blue. Yesterday, today, and tomorrow, too.

Perez...

...will pitch a gem tonight and win.

Quotable

"I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally."

-- Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins, on Jan. 23

Well, as of tonight Jimmy Rollins is no longer a liar. It took the worst late-season meltdown in the history of baseball and the worst baseball I've ever seen in my life at any level, but the Mets managed to make an honest man of Rollins. Well played Jimmy, well played.

At least the Mets will always have '06. Oh wait, that didn't work out either.

Oh, and luckily thanks to their 12-6 record against the Mets the Phils are now in the driver's seat.

Braves

Glad to see smoltz and hudson saved their worst for last, and chose these last two games to stink. Thanks for nothing guys...

Feliciano

I have a few points I want to make about the pen, but before getting there, I'd like to review Feliciano's most recent 5 performances:

9/20: @ Florida. Feliciano comes into to start the bottom of the 9th. Metties have just scored 3 in the top to turn a 4-3 deficit into a 7-4 advantage. Sosa's warm in the pen, and everyone's clear that Feliciano is in to pitch to one batter, left-handed Jeremy Hermida. Sosa will be coming in next to face Cabrera. Feliciano starts off wild, missing badly with two balls. Gets a strike to bring the count to 2-1, and then gives up a single up the middle. The Fish have a rally brewing, and go on to score 3 to tie the game, later winning in extras.

9/21: @ Florida. The line pretty much speaks for itself: 2/3 IP, 2 BB, 1 H, 2 ER's. Comes in for the bottom of the 8th. Strikeout. Walk. Walk. Strikeout. Gives up a 2 run double. Pulled for Joe Smith.

9/23: @ Florida. Relieves Maine in the bottom of the 6th, 2 on, nobody out. Game tied 2-2. Gets a K, gives up a single letting an inherited runner score, lifted for Sosa. Leaves game with Mets trailing 3-2.

9/24: vs. Nats. Starts the 7th and pitches an effective inning in a fairly low-pressure spot, with the Mets already down 7-4. Stays in to start the 8th, and commits the cardinal sin for a reliever: issuing a leadoff walk. He's then lifted, and the leadoff walk turns out to be the start of a 3 run rally.

9/26: vs. Nats. Comes into the bottom of the 5th with no outs, and the Mets clinging to a 6-5 lead with two men on. Gives up the GWRBI hit, a double to Willie Mo Pena, scoring both inherited runners and giving the Nats a 7-6 lead which would grow to become a 9-6 win.

That's 5 straight outings from one of our supposed "better" relievers in which he has been ineffective. Right when the Mets are tailspinning and need him most.

4 of the 5 games were losses. In 3 of the 5 appearances, he is involved in the game turning rally (for the other team).

Where are they now?

In assessing the Mets horrific and potentially historic meltdown, look no further than the following four players: Bradford, Oliver, Bannister, and Kazmir.

Let's begin our painful review of recent mind-bogglingly bad deals by the Mets by first looking at the stats each has posted this year:

Bradford (Bal): 3.41 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 18 holds, only 1 HR in 63.1 IP
Oliver (LAA): 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8 holds, 3-1 record
Bannister (KC): 3.87 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 12-9 record
Kazmir (TB): 3.54 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 13-9 record, 229 Ks

Now, let's review why those players are no longer on the Mets. Bradford: for some reason a one-year deal for $3 M was too rich for Omar. Oliver: don't know. Bannister: we got Burgos. Kazmir: we got Zambrano (the wrong one).

Bottom line: if we had kept these young and/or proven talents, we would NOT be in a downward death spiral at this point. I'd guess we'd have 90-92 wins and a comfortable 5-6+ game lead. Instead of retaining these players, the Mets went the much riskier route of sticking with injured and/or old and injury-prone players, including Sanchez, Duque, Glav, Pedro, and I'll throw Mota in the mix b/c I was confident he would stink this season after coming off the juice. Pitching is essential, especially in the playoffs, and we got rid of ours.

To make things worse, we got rid of these players for nothing. Literally we either let them walk and got nothing in return, or got garbage in return. I just don't understand the logic in any of these four cases. And that's not 20/20 hindsight: I didn't understand any of these moves at the time, especially oliver, bradford, and bannister.

Accountability

There is no way to excuse not holding onto leads of 5-0 in multiple games in the last week, and especially blowing leads to Nats. No way. This team is a mockery of a playoff contender.

Bottom line is Omar needs to reject his absurd position a year ago that the Mets already had all the core players they needed, and they were only looking to add some peripheral role players. He must now admit that this team needs legitimate, established pitching in the worst possible way. If he starts next season with Pedro, Glav, and Duque as "the core", he is making a huge mistake in my opinion. We need young, non-injury-prone proven starting talent, and from what I've seen this year of Pelf and Humber (in AAA), I doubt they will be anything better than #4 guys all next season. I also can't place a lot of faith in Maine and Perez since both have yet to put together a consistent season. Without a top 5 pitcher I don't see this team doing much in the future.

Also, I'm sorry, I don't care what Willie's management style is: he needs to be visibly tearing some ass on this team right now. Even Glav said so the other day, that sometimes a team needs a real chewing to light a fire under them and get going. He needs to call out every pitcher on this team, and force them to prove that they belong in the majors. Even if it doesn't work it's better than sitting around and issuing stupid post-game comments like "We'll get 'em next time", or "This is championship baseball... The champagne will taste that much sweeter." Guess we'll have to ask the Phils if that's true.

Why MLB is also a steaming pile of dung

Earlier this year I happened to notice that MLB has granted TBS exclusive rights to cover a portion of the playoffs for the next 10 years or so. In particular, this year they will cover all LDS games and NLCS, while Fox covers everything else. I didn't really give this much thought, until I just realized the ridiculousness of this situation: MLB is going to let a station that is already affiliated directly with a team, the Braves, cover national playoffs. Worse yet, TBS is using its same crew to call the games! It's bad enough I have to listen to those morons call Mets-Braves games during the regular season as an out-of-market viewer. But to now have to suffer through listening to them in the playoffs is intolerable. If the Braves are in we'll have to hear biased coverage about how great they are, and if they're out we'll have to hear about how they're so much better than whoever is in, and it should've been the Braves.

At least MLB should have insisted that a national, non-affiliated crew call the games.

Tonight's Pile of Dung

Absent some ole fashioned Mets Magic, this game ain't lookin' good. Plenty of goat horns to go around:

1) Glav - With a rookie making his 1st ML start tomorrow, we really needed Glav to go deep into today's game and save the pen (plus keep us in the game). Instead it was batting practice for the NL's worst offense, yet again. 4 HR's and another 4 deep fly balls that mercifully went foul.

2) Reyes - Where to start? Leads of the game with a solo HR with us already down 4, a nice start but obviously not a pressure situation. With a chance to tie the game in his 2nd AB with 2 RISP and 2 outs, gets to a 2-0 count. The opposing pitcher has already walked one hitter on 4 pitches, and seems crazy wild. Jose proceeds to swing at two straight balls, limply hitting a lazy fly to LF. In his 3rd AB, he has a runner on 2nd base with 0 outs. A base hit tacks on a run. Even a productive out gets the runner to 3rd with 1 out. Instead, more wild swings and another lazy pop to CF, no runner advance. The kicker is his mental error fielding in the 7th which would have ended the inning, instead leading to two runs and turning a 3 run deficit to a seemingly insurmountable 5 run deficit.

3) Willie - As Gary Cohen laid out ad nauseum, curious move to bring out Muniz for a second inning. More curious to wait until he's walked to batters to start warming a right-hander. And more curious yet to not bring on the lefty, who was long-since warmed up, to face the lone lefty in Nats lineup.

Two things

These two things must happen for us to have even a remote chance of winning in the playoffs:
1. El Duque must be back and near 100%
2. We must stop giving up massive 2-out rallies. Once you have the 2nd out, man up on the mound, and SHUT IT DOWN.

Without El Duque we have no chance, b/c our starters stink and our bullpen is done. At this point the bullpen collapse has gone on long enough that it's not a "fluke" bad game or week; it's here permanently and going to carry through the rest of the season including playoffs. If we don't get 8 solid innings from our starters giving up no more than 3-4 R, we're done.

Furthermore, if this month-long meltdown isn't proof positive to Omar & Co that they need to acquire legitimate pitching talent in the offseason to shore up starting rotation and pen, I'm not sure what is.

Ups and downs

Mets got the wins this weekend, which is the #1 most important thing down the stretch. That was essential, and they were rewarded by picking up a game on the Phils, cutting magic # to 5. Nice job boys. Also on the positive side: Oliver perez's brilliant gem at an absolute must-have time; Delgado still showing some pop; return of Reyes; and D-Wright.

On the brutally negative side and likely to result in elimination from playoffs in round 1 if it continues:
1. Continued bullpen implosions. There simply is no way to describe the hideousness of blowing a 3 run lead in the 8th twice in 4 games. None. Their month-long meltdown is the worst I have ever witnessed and makes me think the most likely outcome for this team is exit from first round of playoffs.
2. Starting pitching. While we got the Ws this weekend, the starting pitching (minus Perez) was not sharp. Specifically, only getting 5 or 6 innings out of our starters while they give up 3 Rs is not good enough. Especially not in light of point (1).
3. Beltran's re-aggravated tendinitis in both knees. Hopefully he can fight through it for another 5 weeks.

As of right now it looks like we'll draw the Pads in round 1 unfortunately, regardless of whether we or Arizona end up with best record in NL..

High Hopes

I wish the Mets lead was thiiiis big!

Tonight

Tonight's lineup:

NYM: Martinez (2-0, 1.69 ERA)
FLA: Olsen (9-14, 6.06 ERA)

The Mets lineup will now face Florida's Scott Olsen (9-14, 6.06 ERA), who is 0-5 with a 9.43 ERA in his last six starts. The left-hander gave up six runs and eight hits in two innings of a 13-0 loss to Colorado on Sunday.

If we don't win this matchup, we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Period.

Mets Lose a heartbreaker! Phils Win in a stirring comeback! I'm running out of whiskey!

Leh.

Mets Win! Phils Lose!

That is all.

drink 'em if you got 'em

classic post summary over at the geek:

Eric is busy holding a closed-door meeting with a bottle of whiskey.

Fire willie now. clearly maine is injured, i can think of no other reason to give up 8 runs to nats. So, he should have been benched to get his finger healed instead of making it worse AND screwing our team in the process. Certainly after nats started closing in on our 7 run score willie should have pulled maine.

The Maine Event

Normally I'd bet the house on Mets winning tonight, with Maine shutting Nats down. I'd say that's the most likely outcome, but this from espn.com is a bit troubling:

The blister problem could be the root of a second-half fade by Maine, who is tied with Oliver Perez for the team lead in wins. Maine was 10-4 with a 2.71 ERA in 17 first-half starts, with the Mets going 12-5. After the All-Star break, though, he's 4-5 with a 5.46 ERA and New York has split his 12 starts.

Apparently maine has developed a blister on his finger at some point. This is the same issue that has shut down Beckett for weeks or more at a time in the past..

Willie

From NYPOst: ...said manager Willie Randolph, who insisted he wasn't angry and wasn't questioning anyone's effort.

Of course he's not, willie's never upset with anyone's effort. Too lazy to run down a fly ball? Too lazy to run out an infield hit? Too stupid at the plate to realize that with an 0-2 count and RISP and 2 outs now is not the time to be taking a big cut, but rather time to choke up and make contact? No problem, that's just player's "learning" on the job.

Here's a nugget: According to the Elias Sports Bureau, if the Mets blow what was a seven-game lead with 17 games to go, it would be unprecedented - no team has ever been up seven with 17 to play and not captured the division or league.

The Mets are a disgust right now and a mockery of the 3rd highest payroll in baseball, 1st in NL. They are somewhere between 4th and 7th in the NL in nearly every major batting and pitching category of significance. I strongly suggest they look to pick up some free agents or major trades with AL teams in the offseason to actually get some real talent (particularly pitching) on this team. I would also lay down the law on their hitting and batting approach and say either it changes (and say how), or else they will be riding the bench. Their inability to score runs against garbage, mediocre, over-the-hill or rookie NL pitching is an absolute joke. Except only the Phillies are laughing.

Rollins and other musings

Looks like Jimmy Rollins was close but off a little with his pre-season prediction. He should have said, "I think we are the team for the Mets to beat in the NL East..." Apparently other teams do not share the same problem the Mets have against the Phillies, and particularly against 44-year-old Moyer and his bloated 5+ ERA.

Remember how everyone was celebrating the brilliance of Braves GM Schuerholz? Looks like it hasn't done much for them. In fact, they parted with an impressive top prospect (Saltalamacchia), and next year they'll likely have to part with Andruw Jones to re-sign Teixeira. The mistake they made was in thinking they were only one player away from winning the division. Only their arrogance could truly have believed that - the current Braves are a shell of the team they used to be.

Finally, the red sox continue to bring up dominant rookie after dominant rookie - they must have the best farm system right now hands down. Latest is jacoby ellsbury, their blue-chip top OF prospect. He has been nothing short of spectacular at MLB level: in 20 games he has a .394 avg, .621 slg %, 3 HRs, 14 RBIs, and 5 SBs. That includes 2-2 w/3 RBIs in yesterday's mauling of Yanks. I notice that unlike many Mets, he uses a level swing that (gasp!) actually makes contact, rather than a fugly uppercut going for the fences. Maybe there's something to that after all...

Shady Brady and Bill Belicheat

Post-season pitching roster

I would say emphatically that three players who should not be on the post-season roster are Scho, Sele, and Mota. I'm on the fence with Heilman b/c his numbers are so jekyll and hyde, but in the hopes that the good aaron shows up (and since we don't have a lot of other options), I'd say include him. But if this team has any hope of winning a close, low-scoring game against top notch starting pitchers of SD, LA, or in WS Angels, Indians, or Red Sox, they cannot afford any of the garbage time that those three guys bring. I'm sick of watching close lead after close lead blown by the Three Stooges.

I'd say here is the rotation:
Starting pitchers: Glavine - Duque - Pedro - Maine.
Pen: Perez - Feliciano - Pelfrey - Heilman - Sosa - Wagner - ??.

I assume Lawrence, Collazo and Humber will not make the roster. I also wonder whether duque is more valuable coming out of pen or starting? On most teams I'd say clearly the answer is starting, since he is a rock in playoffs. But given our shaky bullpen, and the fact that most of our starters only go 6 innings thus really increasing the importance of the pen, I think you could make an argument that he could win us more games by coming in as a reliever to shut things down.

Just in case you were wondering...

Brian Bannister is panning out extremely well.

Big (and surprising) news

Apparently, Glavine wants to play in '08.

Now Omar has to figure out if he has one more good year in that left arm.

Kazmir

It would be great if Kazmir filed for arbitration after this season and were let go by D-rays. D-rays whole payroll is only $24 M and top player is Crawford at $4.1 M. Kazmir only gets $424 K now, and clearly in arbitration he would be awarded more than D-rays probably want to pay.

I would love to see Mets re-sign him; he would give them the youth and options they need on their pitching staff. Of course, the Yankees or Red Sox would probably outbid us, so I doubt we'd get him. The main benefit of Kazmir - besides his awesome talent - is that he owns the Red Sox. This is obviously a huge upside for the Yankees and would be worth whatever they can pay, especially given their suspect rotation. But who knows, perhaps we could put together a package that would be more attractive for one reason or another.

J-E-T-S.......Oooofff

Well, I'll take some liberties on this Mets blog to post about the Jetties. I'll keep it brief since thinking about yesterday's debacle for more than a minute will cause temporary insanity and blindness. Looking not just at yesterday's game but at last few seasons as well, I'd say:

1. Not re-signing Pete Kendall was an even more colossal blunder than it appeared in pre-season. This was a "cut off your nose to spite your face" move of epic proportions by Jets ownership. To not simply give him an extra $1M/yr, that he clearly deserved, is coming back to haunt them. The O line sans Kendall simply could do nothing useful yesterday - no pass protection, no run-blocking holes, ...

2. Jets rush D is still atrocious. They couldn't be more porous, and the inability of their LBs to come up and hit the gaps HARD is appalling. I think partly this might be due to the fact that Jets front 7 can't commit to crowding the box or blitzing b/c they are (rightfully) worried that their secondary will get burned, so see point (3).

3. Barrett and Miller must go. They are simply too slow to be of any use, and I'm sick of Barrett always playing the interception only to mistime it and get burned deep. Hopefully Revis pans out and Dyson's injury isn't too serious.

4. Living near Boston with the Sox and Pats is really starting to ride this Mets/Jets fan! Can ONE NY team step up? It's a friggin' embarassment that NY has TWO football and TWO baseball teams, and still can't take down the ONE team for each in New England. In particular the Jets recent 0-7 record against Pats IN THE MEADOWLANDS is absurd. Take some pride and defend your home - at least make it more of a game. Not to mention, nearly all the players the Pats picked up in offseason were free agents - they were available to Jets as well.

Article on mets

Article on mets in SI here. Basically questions whether they really are best team in NL; touches on most of the issues mentioned on this blog.

I think three changes would improve mets.

1. Bullpen. First, I will continue to state that I think we are paying the price for not re-signing Bradford and Oliver, two guys we could critically use this year since their replacements have come up flat. Beyond that, I think Willie has caused some issues by not being totally consistent in who he uses for what role. Given that the Mets are in the mode of starters should only last 6 innings, they need to put some serious focus on beefing up their bullpen in offseason.

2. Stability in lineup, and stop placing so much blind faith on veterans. Willie's constant shuffling of lineup causes reduced production from the players, in my opinion, although I don't have any stats to back this up. They are doing too much (random) platooning at too many positions, and as a result I don't think it allows those players to get into a comfortable batting rhythm.

3. Hitting approach. Discussed this ad nauseum before so I won't beat it to death here, but I think they need to have certain players focus more on being contact hitters and less on power. They have too many rally-killers due to poor plate approach.