Alex Nelson plays the Blame Game

Over at MetsGeek, Alex has posted a very clear-headed analysis of Minaya's performance last offseason. Well worth reading. In the end, he finds the Scho and Mota signings the most questionable moves, moreso than the trades which look bad with the benefit of hindsight. His discussion of the roster moves follows:

...Minaya isn’t in danger of being fired, but there is still a bad taste left over from the job he did with the roster construction.

But is he really to blame for every fault with the composition of the team? I’m not sure. To figure that out, here are two questions we can ask about each “mistake” Omar made this year:

1. Could the [departing/arriving/returning] player’s [success/failure] have realistically been forecasted prior to the move?

2. Did the player [departing/arriving/returning] fit into the team’s long- and short-term plans?

I’m going to attempt to apply these questions to a couple of the maneuvers that Minaya has taken the most flak for.

November 15th: Traded RP Heath Bell and RP Royce Ring to the Padres for OF Ben Johnson and RP Jon Adkins

With the bullpen’s late-season meltdown, many suddenly noticed that Bell had been lights-out for the Padres, finishing with a 2.02 ERA over 93.7 innings, while striking out 104, walking 30, and giving up just three homers. I can’t say his success came as a huge surprise to many at MetsGeek; Bell was named the site’s official pitcher way back in spring 2005. Here were Bell’s career numbers up to the point of the trade:

Where ERA K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9
Minors 3.17 10.4 2.5 7.9 0.71
Majors 4.92 8.8 2.5 10.8 1.17

Great strikeout numbers, great walk numbers, but he had a tendency to leave the ball out over the plate at the big league level which resulted in too many hits and more homers than you’d like. Ultimately, his success wasn’t a fluke, but a reflection of his prior performances.

Did Bell fit into the team’s short-term plans? Honestly, probably not. Bell was out of options and didn’t offer any sort of roster flexibility if he failed to impress Randolph and Rick Peterson (again). After giving up some big innings in 2006, the coaching staff’s faith in Bell was obviously shaken—not to mention the fans’ faith as well. There was no outrage when Bell departed. Long-term? 29-year-old middle relievers just shouldn’t factor into those plans. I was sorry to see him go, but I also thought he needed a change of scenery. He just wasn’t going to get a fair shake in New York.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Johnson, who was Minaya’s primary target in this deal. Johnson was a toolsy prospect who never quite figured things out at either the minor or major league levels. Projected as a fourth outfielder, who could provide some pop off the bench, despite possessing limited contact ability and on-base skills. Adkins was an arm with no upside but had the benefit of still having options, providing some depth to make up for the losses of Ring and Bell.

Final verdict: Letting Bell go wasn’t a big mistake; getting Johnson and Adkins in return probably was. Had they received an arm with upside and a safer fifth outfielder in return instead (the inverse of what they actually received), I’d be happier with the deal.

November 20th: Traded RP Matt Lindstrom and RP Henry Owens for SP Adam Bostick and SP Jason Vargas

Owens pitched okay in 2007, even winning the closer’s job at one point, but got hurt frequently and really didn’t make much of an impact. The big loss is Lindstrom. Was Lindstrom’s success something I saw coming? Not really, but I should have. He had made nice strides after repeating AA at Binghamton, where he went 2-4 with a 3.76 ERA while striking out 54 and walking 14 over 40.2 innings. The walk and strikeout rates represented huge improvements over anything he had shown previously (especially the walk rate). Lindstrom had a phenomenal arm, but he was considered very raw for a 27-year-old pitcher due to his going on a Mormon mission early in his career. Owens was in a similar place thanks to his early years as a catcher.

Vargas was a guy with a pretty good fastball and a great changeup. He was considered relatively major league ready, had solid stuff, and had performed fairly well at the minor league level. In truth, he was a good guy to have around as a sixth or seventh starter, which was important when the bottom of the rotation was as uncertain as it was.

Was Lindstrom in the Mets short-term plans? No. I felt he needed at least a couple months at AAA to determine whether the 40 innings at Binghamton represented true improvement. Since the Marlins were desperate for help in the bullpen, they kept him with the big club and he pitched very well (3.37 ERA with strong peripherals). Lindstrom might have fitted into the Mets’ long-term plans, but it’s tough to really think of minor league relievers in that way.

Final verdict: Omar traded two minor league relievers—albeit good ones—for two so-so minor league starters. I have mixed feelings about this one; I generally like it whenever you can turn relievers into starters, and the depth Vargas provided was reassuring at the time. But Brian Bannister, a pitcher I liked better than Vargas, was around, and Lindstrom had really become an intriguing pitcher. With his stuff and a breakthrough in AA, I’d want to see more. A mistake, though really only when considered next to…

December 6th: Traded SP Brian Bannister to the Royals for RP Ambiorix Burgos

Bannister had made the Mets out of spring training and hadn’t pitched great. But his minor league track record was fantastic, and it was reasonable to assume he’d sort out his control issues with time, which is just what he did with the Royals in a great rookie campaign. His strikeout ratio is poor and he gives up too many flies for my liking, making him due for a regression next season, but he’s certainly capable of being an average starter in the AL.

Burgos is where things went wrong. Burgos has a live arm, and he had a promising season at the big league level.in 2005, but struggled badly in 2006. The truth of the matter was Burgos’s total lack of control has always prevented him from being a good pitcher at any level. But that wasn’t even the most distressing thing. In a blog post, Kansas City Star columnist Joe Posnanski questioned his pitching intelligence, reporting that he had a tendency to fall in love with his splitter and had no feel for the art whatsoever. In a particularly prescient moment, he even questioned Burgos throwing so hard his first days in camp, wondering if elbow ligament surgery was on the horizon.

Bannister could have fit into the Mets’ short-term plans by serving in Vargas’s supposed role as a starter in reserve at New Orleans quite capably. Long-term, he didn’t fit in well; top pitching prospects Phil Humber and Mike Pelfrey were around, as were Oliver Perez and John Maine. There just wasn’t much room for him. Meanwhile, Burgos fit into the Mets’ long-term plans better, since he was more of a reclamation project than a true major-league ready reliever. I’m sure when Minaya traded for him, he had images of Billy Wagner’s replacement in his head.

Final verdict: Mistake. Bannister was more valuable to the Mets than Vargas, and Minaya got mesmerized by Burgos, who still has time to turn things around.

Signed RP Guillermo Mota and RP Scott Schoeneweis to multi-year deals

I won’t spend too much time on this, but it was a mistake. There were legitimate questions about both players’ performances, especially with Mota serving a steroid suspension to start the season. Furthermore, it’s never a good idea to sign veteran relievers to long-term deals, and it’s even worse when they’ve had long stretches of ineffectiveness throughout their careers.

Omar Minaya did not have a great offseason. However, some of the moves don’t look as bad in retrospect. Heath Bell had a great season, but he didn’t fit into the Mets’ plans, and with him out of options there was a fair chance he would have been lost for nothing come April anyway. And while Lindstrom and Owens were promising pitchers, let’s not ignore that they were old minor league relievers with little-to-no experience past AA. They could have been useful, but Minaya did turn them into two starting pitchers who weren’t without upside. Even the Bannister trade wasn’t totally without merit at the time, because he really didn’t fit into the Mets’ plans either, and Omar wanted some more relief depth. They really only don’t make sense when considered together. I can’t defend the latter two free agent acquisitions; they were bad contracts at the time and look worse now.

Ultimately, the sorts of moves that were working for him the year before, just didn’t pan out this season.