The trade deadline came and went, and the Mets ended up not landing the front-line starter that they were seeking. Of course, Randolph says the current roster is fine, and Minaya apparently is on board, because Schmidt was probably available for the right price.
At first blush, I can't criticize Minaya for not bringing in Schmidt. Not without knowing what San Fran wanted. I'll assume the price was too steep, especially based on the fact that they said they were going to have to bowled over by any offer they accepted. If the Giants asked for Milledge or Pelfrey the price was too high. If they wanted Heilman as the centerpiece of the deal, that was a trade that I would have made. Yesterday.
That was before the big news came down. Duaner Sanchez, our 8th inning stopper, is done for the year. He needs surgery on a separated shoulder, thanks to some cab driver in Miami who took his devotion to the Marlins a little to seriously. Once that news hit Minaya's desk, there was no way he could afford to trade Heilman. That, I'm sure, killed the Schmidt talks once and for all. With Heilman, Milledge and Pelfrey off the board, there were probably no pieces the Giants (or A's) really wanted.
All told, I've got to give Minaya credit. The Cameron for Nady trade, in hindsight, was a big win. It layed the foundation for this trade, which allowed us to pick up Hernandez in an absolute cinch. Another set up man was a must-have after Sanchez got hurt. Hernandez is a hard throwing veteran who, while not as dominant as Sanchez has been this year, still inspires confidence in a tight game. As dissapointed as I am that Sanchez is done for the year, it's an absolute blessing that the car wreck didn't happen 24 hrs later. The Mets would have been totally out of luck.
All told, Hernandez was a guy the Mets had to get right now. Milledge instead of Nady in the 7 or 8 slot is probably a wash in terms of numbers, but allows Lastings to get some experience. Perez is a wild card that I'm not counting on but could turn out to have some value down the road.
Minaya played it safe, which makes sense when you're up 13 games. Unless I hear he could have got Schmidt for Bannister, I've got to give the guy credit for not wasting young talent just to compete for space on the back page.
Monday, July 31, 2006
Schmidt window shut?
Mark Hale of the N.Y. Post is reporting in Monday's column that the window to acquire Jason Schmidt has already closed:
I'm not sure I buy Hale's logic. Schmidt would rather ride out the Barry-circus in San Fran, and play golf in October, than have a great shot at World Series glory with the Mets? If Mark's column had cited some kind of inside source, I'd be more likely to believe him. Instead, he seems to just be speculating.
Schmidt, who is 7-7 with a 3.18 ERA and will be a free agent after the season, became a 10-and-5 player as of midnight ET last night, meaning he can reject any trade. So even though the actual trade deadline is today at 4 p.m. ET, the deadline for Schmidt was basically 16 hours earlier.
I'm not sure I buy Hale's logic. Schmidt would rather ride out the Barry-circus in San Fran, and play golf in October, than have a great shot at World Series glory with the Mets? If Mark's column had cited some kind of inside source, I'd be more likely to believe him. Instead, he seems to just be speculating.
Steinbrenner is #2 on the "greedy list"
With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, anxious fans scour the web for any tidbits they can find to bolster the hopes that their favorite team will pull off a blockbuster deal.
Many will flock to "The Worldwide Leader in Sports" to quench their thirst for advance knowledge. Links to juicy rumors abound on the MLB frontpage, raising hopes of obtaining that frontline starter or big lefty bat.
They click away anxiously, holding their breath until the page loads. And what awaits them? "Subscribe now to ESPN INSIDER." ...Huh?
Yes, to find out anything on this garbage site you have to pay for it. ESPN.com is basically a porn site. They tease you with tempting crumbs until you pay for the whole cake. And like most porn sites, the money just isn't worth the content.
Most of these "insider" rumors pan out to be as accurate as Rick Ankiel's fastball, thrown blindfolded. Apparently, they have a room full of monkeys who hurl darts labeled with players' names at lists of teams and their rosters. Whoosh--thunk! Barry Zito to the Mets for Lastings Milledge! Whoosh--thunk! Alfonso Soriano to the Royals for Brandon Duckworth! Whoosh--thunk! Pat Burrell to the Red Wings for Chris Chelios!
I find it outrageous that they expect people to pay for information that pans out about as well as next week's weather forecast. This is the height of arrogance and greed.
I personally would rather find out the facts for free that cough up dough for stories that must have been written by the New York Times.
Many will flock to "The Worldwide Leader in Sports" to quench their thirst for advance knowledge. Links to juicy rumors abound on the MLB frontpage, raising hopes of obtaining that frontline starter or big lefty bat.
They click away anxiously, holding their breath until the page loads. And what awaits them? "Subscribe now to ESPN INSIDER." ...Huh?
Yes, to find out anything on this garbage site you have to pay for it. ESPN.com is basically a porn site. They tease you with tempting crumbs until you pay for the whole cake. And like most porn sites, the money just isn't worth the content.
Most of these "insider" rumors pan out to be as accurate as Rick Ankiel's fastball, thrown blindfolded. Apparently, they have a room full of monkeys who hurl darts labeled with players' names at lists of teams and their rosters. Whoosh--thunk! Barry Zito to the Mets for Lastings Milledge! Whoosh--thunk! Alfonso Soriano to the Royals for Brandon Duckworth! Whoosh--thunk! Pat Burrell to the Red Wings for Chris Chelios!
I find it outrageous that they expect people to pay for information that pans out about as well as next week's weather forecast. This is the height of arrogance and greed.
I personally would rather find out the facts for free that cough up dough for stories that must have been written by the New York Times.
Willis off the board, Schmidt back on?
Jayson Stark at Espn.com says it's official--the Marlins aren't moving the D-Train:
Meanwhile, apparently Jason Schmidt is back in the mix:
If you could get Schmidt (another 3 month rental, like Zito) for, say, Heilman and a mid-tier prospect, would you make the deal? I would.
OK, now that we've got your attention ... the Marlins made sure nobody would even waste their time asking about Willis this weekend. How? They put both Willis and their other walking trade rumor, Miguel Cabrera, on waivers late last week, according to multiple sources in both leagues. Those waivers were a meaningless technicality, and the Marlins clearly would have revoked both names if any team claimed them. So the only possible reason to place those particular players in waiver limbo at that particular moment in pre-deadline time was this: Players aren't allowed to be traded until their waivers expire. In the case of Willis and Cabrera, that happens to be just after Monday afternoon's trading deadline. So any Dontrelle rumors that pop up between now and the deadline are as fictional as "Gone With The Wind." And that's official.
Meanwhile, apparently Jason Schmidt is back in the mix:
Clubs that made contact with the Mets on Sunday say they were talking to the Giants about a potential deal to bring Schmidt to New York. And the Giants were said to be listening...
[The Giants] would want at least two players back -- either two top-tier young players they can rebuild around or one player like that and a young starting pitcher who could replace Schmidt in the rotation now and down the road. But the Mets are adamant that they aren't trading Lastings Milledge for a rent-a-pitcher. So an official of one team described this deal Sunday as "more unlikely than likely."
If you could get Schmidt (another 3 month rental, like Zito) for, say, Heilman and a mid-tier prospect, would you make the deal? I would.
Sunday, July 30, 2006
Rumor Central's latest
Here's what espn.com is reporting right now:
Here's my wishful thinking: Minaya is sticking to his Livan Hernandez strategy to keep Beane from thinking Zito's the only valuable card out there.
In reality, Minaya knows Zito's the only pitcher out there worth trading for, Beane won't deal unless he can plunder the other team, and no deal will be forthcoming. Which isn't the worst thing in the world. The Mets are built pretty well right now. I'd hate to give up Milledge for a rental, or give up Pelfrey for any reason.
Staying put
Jul 30 - It appears as though Barry Zito will not be traded, ESPN The Magazine's Amy Nelson reports. But the Mets and Diamondbacks still have made offers. The D-Backs, according to one baseball executive, offered either right-handed pitchers Dustin Nippert or Tony Pena -- both of whom are top prospects -- for Zito. The A's thought that "wasn't enough" and wanted another young arm.
According to an executive speaking to the Oakland Tribune, there's a "95 percent chance" that Zito will remain with the A's.
Even though the A's have expressed a strong interest in dealing Zito to the Mets, the New York team is apparently looking for a pitcher who's a notch below Zito in quality, reports ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.
Here's my wishful thinking: Minaya is sticking to his Livan Hernandez strategy to keep Beane from thinking Zito's the only valuable card out there.
In reality, Minaya knows Zito's the only pitcher out there worth trading for, Beane won't deal unless he can plunder the other team, and no deal will be forthcoming. Which isn't the worst thing in the world. The Mets are built pretty well right now. I'd hate to give up Milledge for a rental, or give up Pelfrey for any reason.
(Slight) redemption for McIlvaine?
It seems that after all the abuse the Mets front office has taken for the Scott Kazmir/Vitor Zambrano deal that their magic 8-ball may have been right--Kazmir will apparently be placed on the DL for problems stemming from shoulder tendinitis.
Now we all know that these claims of foresight from the execs that Kazmir's delivery would lead to his inevitable breakdown were just attempts to rationalize trading a younger, cheaper, more talented player for what amounts to a bag of fertilizer.
However, this makes them looks like a slightly smarter pack of jackasses. Frankly, I would much rather have had Kazmir for the last two seasons (at this point) than Zambrano. Especially since they are both injured now.
It's still one of the worst trades in MLB history, rivaling Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen, but at least their lame excuse may turn out to be the truth...
Now we all know that these claims of foresight from the execs that Kazmir's delivery would lead to his inevitable breakdown were just attempts to rationalize trading a younger, cheaper, more talented player for what amounts to a bag of fertilizer.
However, this makes them looks like a slightly smarter pack of jackasses. Frankly, I would much rather have had Kazmir for the last two seasons (at this point) than Zambrano. Especially since they are both injured now.
It's still one of the worst trades in MLB history, rivaling Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen, but at least their lame excuse may turn out to be the truth...
The Jankees is trading
So they got Abreu ($13Mil+ for a corner outfielder on pace to hit 13 HRs) and Cory Lidle (enough said). I guess if you're going to spend 200 Mil you might as well spend 216 Mil. Lets see if this extra payroll actually makes them any better in the postseason. Since Abreu's at bats will take away from Bernie's (Damon/Sheff/Matsui should all be playing come October), I'm guessing it makes them worse. Plus it means Giambi has to play the field if all 4 OF bats are going to be in the game.
I'd take Bernie in the post-season over Mr-tepid-don't-really-care-too-much-Abreu any day of the week. There's a reason Philly was hoping someone else would start writing his paycheck.
I'd take Bernie in the post-season over Mr-tepid-don't-really-care-too-much-Abreu any day of the week. There's a reason Philly was hoping someone else would start writing his paycheck.
WaPo on possible trades
Mets Eye Nats
The New York Mets continue to be the most likely suitors for two available Nationals' pitchers, right-handers Livan Hernandez and Tony Armas Jr. The Mets are one of the few teams that might not balk at Hernandez's $7 million salary for next season. Armas, who earns $2.5 million this year, will be a free agent in the offseason.
Both pitchers have struggled (Hernandez's ERA is 5.70, Armas's 4.79), but they each have a history with Mets GM Omar Minaya, for whom they played in Montreal.
Boy is this disappointing. If I had to read the tea-leaves right now, I'd bet one of these trades will happen, and it's going to be a waste of a prospect, as well as an unnecessary increase in payroll. The Hernandez rumor has been a constant for a couple of weeks now, and has been heard from several different reporters. This has the feel to me of a "where there's smoke there's fire" situation.
It's not that Livan couldn't do a good job in the postseason (though his ERA this year is horrible). But I would rather give the innings to a younger, cheaper alternative like Maine or Pelfrey and see what develops. I'd bet that come October one of the Mets rookies will be in the rotation and doing a better job than Livan.
Saturday, July 29, 2006
Good News, Bad News
Jayson Stark at espn.com wrote the following late last night:
If Heilman and a lesser player gets the Mets Zito, we're close to a deal that could really work for the Mets (and, in my opinion, be fair for the A's as well). The bad news is Stark's feeling that the Mets just don't want to add payroll, which would be the height of silliness when you consider how much has already been invested in this season and how much is possible in the next few months.
So there's no reason to think they're suddenly about to turn their attention to Zito, who would require them to deal Lastings Milledge or Aaron Heilman, plus another lesser player. Zito is a Nordstrom's kind of item. And the Mets clearly are just Target shoppers these days.
If Heilman and a lesser player gets the Mets Zito, we're close to a deal that could really work for the Mets (and, in my opinion, be fair for the A's as well). The bad news is Stark's feeling that the Mets just don't want to add payroll, which would be the height of silliness when you consider how much has already been invested in this season and how much is possible in the next few months.
Friday, July 28, 2006
5-Alarm Fughazi
Dan Graziano of the Star-Ledger offers today's round of trade deadline bunk. Like many other sportswriters, who need a new topic to meet deadline every couple of days, Dan's building up a crisis in his column so that he can sound the alarm. The upshot of his column? Since the Mets will make the playoffs this year, and probably the World Series, they need to trade for Barry Zito now, or the fate of the 2001 Mariners awaits them.
"Tough" is the understatement of the year. What Dan wants Omar to do is give up a "system jewel" (his words), one who will likely start in LF next year at a bargain basement price, while all we get back is 3 months of Zito. Dan thinks the Mets need to make the deal because they have to win NOW. Meanwhile, all the sports columns you read back in April and May were about how Omar was wise to build a core of players that could compete at a high level well into the future. A core that was full of 20-somethings, like Wright, Reyes, Pelfrey, Beltran, Nady, and possibly Bannister and Maine. I guess those columns are good for May, but panic and alarmism are what the sportswriters need to get through July.
To throw Milledge aside, who has a chance to be one of the best members of that core, in return for one post-season of work from Zito (which may or may not end successfully, even with Zito), makes no sense whatsoever. Sign Zito in the offseason. There's no reason to think Delgado or LoDuca is falling off the map next year. If this year doesn't work out, come back next year with Milledge AND Zito.
I don't want to make it seem as though Dan's the only one with an itchy trigger finger. Just wait and see what happens come Sunday and Monday. The Post and News will be raising the alarm bells to deafening levels.
So, if what we're hearing is true -- if the Oakland A's really would trade Barry Zito to the Mets for Lastings Milledge -- the Mets should go ahead and do it.
Right now, what Mets GM Omar Minaya is saying is that the price teams are asking for "rental players" is too high. He can't mention specific players, but the hint is clear. Zito, who can be a free agent at the end of the season, is no guarantee to be a Met in 2007 even if they trade for him. To give up a system jewel such as Milledge for a pitcher you may have for only three months is tough...
"Tough" is the understatement of the year. What Dan wants Omar to do is give up a "system jewel" (his words), one who will likely start in LF next year at a bargain basement price, while all we get back is 3 months of Zito. Dan thinks the Mets need to make the deal because they have to win NOW. Meanwhile, all the sports columns you read back in April and May were about how Omar was wise to build a core of players that could compete at a high level well into the future. A core that was full of 20-somethings, like Wright, Reyes, Pelfrey, Beltran, Nady, and possibly Bannister and Maine. I guess those columns are good for May, but panic and alarmism are what the sportswriters need to get through July.
To throw Milledge aside, who has a chance to be one of the best members of that core, in return for one post-season of work from Zito (which may or may not end successfully, even with Zito), makes no sense whatsoever. Sign Zito in the offseason. There's no reason to think Delgado or LoDuca is falling off the map next year. If this year doesn't work out, come back next year with Milledge AND Zito.
I don't want to make it seem as though Dan's the only one with an itchy trigger finger. Just wait and see what happens come Sunday and Monday. The Post and News will be raising the alarm bells to deafening levels.
Let the fun begin
Ah, excellent news. The trading wheel is now in spin. Carlos Lee gets shipped to the Rangers.
Here are the reasons I like the deal:
1) It robs the Brew Crew of their big bopper right before they start a 3 game set with the Reds. Of course, we want the Reds to sweep so that the Marlins get pushed further behind in the wild card race. Hopefully they will realize the futility of their playoff push and be more willing to deal Dontrelle. (Yes, I've been hitting the kool aid hard this morning)
2) Lee didn't end up in the Bronx, where he might have been valuable. Maybe he'll still be on the table this off-season if the Mets decide to replace Floyd. Doubt the Rangers will throw cash at Lee to lock him up now, as the Yanks would have been able to do (whether they would have, I don't know).
I don't know or care if this trade will work out better in the long term for the Rangers or Brewers.
Here are the reasons I like the deal:
1) It robs the Brew Crew of their big bopper right before they start a 3 game set with the Reds. Of course, we want the Reds to sweep so that the Marlins get pushed further behind in the wild card race. Hopefully they will realize the futility of their playoff push and be more willing to deal Dontrelle. (Yes, I've been hitting the kool aid hard this morning)
2) Lee didn't end up in the Bronx, where he might have been valuable. Maybe he'll still be on the table this off-season if the Mets decide to replace Floyd. Doubt the Rangers will throw cash at Lee to lock him up now, as the Yanks would have been able to do (whether they would have, I don't know).
I don't know or care if this trade will work out better in the long term for the Rangers or Brewers.
Deadline rumblings
As Monday's 4 PM trade deadline fast approaches, here's a couple of points that Fred really wants Omar to keep track of:
1) Trading Milledge or Pelfrey for Zito is definitely a no-go. The guy's a nine week rental. I'd love to sign him in the offseason, but to give up someone who can be an immediate impact player at $400K for the next 3 years is madness. Not to mention both of these guys have the talent to turn this trade into a Kazmir-redux.
2) Trading Heilman (and, if necessary, B-level prospects) for a Zito rental makes a lot of sense. Heilman's not excelling in his assigned role, 7th or 8th inning set-up man. He's clearly unhappy with being passed over 99-or-so times for a spot in the starting rotation. He requested a trade last winter if the Mets wouldn't start him. His unhappiness is clearly affecting his performance. His low salary, relative youth, good overall track record, and long-term potential make him attractive to other teams. Most importantly, the Mets will lose him as soon as he's able to test free agency. As Heilman said, "It's one of those things that, until you get to 10-and-5 [veto power over trades], I don't think you're ever fully comfortable with where you're at." Dave Lennon translates that statement nicely for us in Newsday: "it's not as if Heilman is feeling any special attachment to the Mets these days." Get something for him while you can.
3) Get Willis for Milledge. I still refuse to believe the Marlins would be dumb enough to trade him, given his relatively attractive contract, his age, and his already proven major-league track record. But if they want to offload his $4Million salary for Milledge, Humber and, say, Bannister, we'd be happy to accomodate them. I'll trade youth for youth when the incoming player is locked up for 3 years and already has the track-record of being a top-tier major league power pitcher.
4) If we make the trades that are being rumored, like Heilman-Milledge-Maine for Zito, you will all be fired post haste. Going after Maddux would also be not helpful. What's the guy's ERA since his magnificent April ended? I'll answer that: 6.03. He's done. Sure, you wouldn't have to give up much for him, but there's probably a really good reason for that. Besides, let's give Maine and Pelfrey the innings and save the pen another 5-inning starter.
1) Trading Milledge or Pelfrey for Zito is definitely a no-go. The guy's a nine week rental. I'd love to sign him in the offseason, but to give up someone who can be an immediate impact player at $400K for the next 3 years is madness. Not to mention both of these guys have the talent to turn this trade into a Kazmir-redux.
2) Trading Heilman (and, if necessary, B-level prospects) for a Zito rental makes a lot of sense. Heilman's not excelling in his assigned role, 7th or 8th inning set-up man. He's clearly unhappy with being passed over 99-or-so times for a spot in the starting rotation. He requested a trade last winter if the Mets wouldn't start him. His unhappiness is clearly affecting his performance. His low salary, relative youth, good overall track record, and long-term potential make him attractive to other teams. Most importantly, the Mets will lose him as soon as he's able to test free agency. As Heilman said, "It's one of those things that, until you get to 10-and-5 [veto power over trades], I don't think you're ever fully comfortable with where you're at." Dave Lennon translates that statement nicely for us in Newsday: "it's not as if Heilman is feeling any special attachment to the Mets these days." Get something for him while you can.
3) Get Willis for Milledge. I still refuse to believe the Marlins would be dumb enough to trade him, given his relatively attractive contract, his age, and his already proven major-league track record. But if they want to offload his $4Million salary for Milledge, Humber and, say, Bannister, we'd be happy to accomodate them. I'll trade youth for youth when the incoming player is locked up for 3 years and already has the track-record of being a top-tier major league power pitcher.
4) If we make the trades that are being rumored, like Heilman-Milledge-Maine for Zito, you will all be fired post haste. Going after Maddux would also be not helpful. What's the guy's ERA since his magnificent April ended? I'll answer that: 6.03. He's done. Sure, you wouldn't have to give up much for him, but there's probably a really good reason for that. Besides, let's give Maine and Pelfrey the innings and save the pen another 5-inning starter.
Mets are set for the long haul
ORIGINALLY POSTED JUNE 2006
OK, so we're up 9.5 games in the NL East and the All-Star break still isn't in sight. Like most Mets fans, I'm feeling pretty good about our chance to make some noise in October this year. Beltran is hitting to his contract, not his past performance, Delgado been the big bat in the middle of the lineup the Mets needed, Wright is meeting and exceeding expectations, and even Jose Reyes is managing to get some walks (now if he'd stop hitting fly balls...). Coming off of a 9-1 road trip the Mets offense looks like a juggernaut, pummeling even the ace of our opponents staff (Myers) and scoring in the first inning in 8 straight games. That's how you put your opponent on its heels.
Meanwhile, the pitching has been more than good enough. Dumping Julio for El Duque looks like genius now. Glavine and Pedro have done what they get paid the big bucks to do. And the back end of the rotation is looking young and capable with Bannister (before the injury) and Soler (more recently) looking major league ready.
So after we win the Series this year, how do the Mets pursue dynasty?
Well, reviewing the free agent options that are expected to be on the board this winter, there are a few interesting possibilities:
Alfonso Soriano could be brought in to fill the Mets biggest hole at second base. Valentin is filling in nicely for the time being but he is not the future. With Floyd's body in decline, and the ever-present threat that his productivity might finally start to drop off, the Mets would do well to add another RBI producing bat. Especially if they make the expected move of letting Floyd walk and giving Milledge his shot.
One never knows how a rookie will produce, and expecting him to be a run-maker in the middle of the lineup like Floyd is setting the bar too high. People forget what a service Willie did for Wright by keeping him at the bottom of the lineup while he got his major league bearings. I was at wits end with the hysterical-crew, with leaders like Benigno, who wanted him in the cleanup slot his third week with the Mets. I'm convinced that Willie deserves credit for bringing David along slowly, which has enabled him to take on additional responsibilities without hitting the wall the way so many young players do.
The same should apply with Milledge next year, which means a bat like Soriano's could play an important role in the offense. Ultimately, I think this move will not happen for three reasons: (1) he's probably going to be traded and locked-up by another team before the post-season; (2) the Mets could really use a left-handed bat at second base to preserve the great balance they've had in the lineup this year, since a righty in Milledge will be replacing a lefty in Floyd; and (3) I think Nady will emerge as someone who can handle the 6-slot responsibilities that Floyd currently occupies, and do it well. That said, despite Soriano's obvious appeal, I think the Metties will still be in the second base market after Soriano's off the board.
The guy who I think makes a lot of sense for the Mets is Adam Kennedy. He's proven himself capable of hitting .300 in the past, and is a lifetime .280 guy. He's a left handed bat, 30 years old, a gold-glove caliber fielder, and can likely be had for a lot less money than the big names that will be out there this winter, which will save up money for pitching. As a 7 or 8 hitter he would be more than adequate, a huge upgrade over say, Anderson Hernandez.
Starting pitching is where the Metties need to make some hay. Glavine and Pedro are doing the job, but next year will almost certainly be Glavine's last and Pedro's penultimate campaign. Top-of-the-rotation talent needs to be acquired that will go beyond the next two years. Pelfrey is being considered a top-three type pitcher right now, but even if he pans out as such in a couple of years, we'll need another playoff type starter next year and another one the year after that. The obvious name right now is Barry Zito, and I think the Mets need to throw money at him. He's been dependable, sucks up tons of innings, hasn't shown a lot of drop off from his earlier years (a la Mulder), is a lefty among a sea of young Met righties, still has another 5-10 years left in his arm (in all probability), and has a great rapport with Mets pitching coach (and former A's pitching coach) Rick Peterson.
So there's my wish list for this off-season to keep the dynasty going: Kennedy and Zito. The year after another starting pitcher might be needed for Pedro, if he retires post-'08 as he's already indicated he's considering, and we'll have to see how LoDuca's body is holding up behind the plate. But that's two years away. First, I want to enjoy the ride to post-season meaningfulness this year, and see the pieces put in place to maintain success into 2008.
Cross posted at The Occasional Observer
OK, so we're up 9.5 games in the NL East and the All-Star break still isn't in sight. Like most Mets fans, I'm feeling pretty good about our chance to make some noise in October this year. Beltran is hitting to his contract, not his past performance, Delgado been the big bat in the middle of the lineup the Mets needed, Wright is meeting and exceeding expectations, and even Jose Reyes is managing to get some walks (now if he'd stop hitting fly balls...). Coming off of a 9-1 road trip the Mets offense looks like a juggernaut, pummeling even the ace of our opponents staff (Myers) and scoring in the first inning in 8 straight games. That's how you put your opponent on its heels.
Meanwhile, the pitching has been more than good enough. Dumping Julio for El Duque looks like genius now. Glavine and Pedro have done what they get paid the big bucks to do. And the back end of the rotation is looking young and capable with Bannister (before the injury) and Soler (more recently) looking major league ready.
So after we win the Series this year, how do the Mets pursue dynasty?
Well, reviewing the free agent options that are expected to be on the board this winter, there are a few interesting possibilities:
Alfonso Soriano could be brought in to fill the Mets biggest hole at second base. Valentin is filling in nicely for the time being but he is not the future. With Floyd's body in decline, and the ever-present threat that his productivity might finally start to drop off, the Mets would do well to add another RBI producing bat. Especially if they make the expected move of letting Floyd walk and giving Milledge his shot.
One never knows how a rookie will produce, and expecting him to be a run-maker in the middle of the lineup like Floyd is setting the bar too high. People forget what a service Willie did for Wright by keeping him at the bottom of the lineup while he got his major league bearings. I was at wits end with the hysterical-crew, with leaders like Benigno, who wanted him in the cleanup slot his third week with the Mets. I'm convinced that Willie deserves credit for bringing David along slowly, which has enabled him to take on additional responsibilities without hitting the wall the way so many young players do.
The same should apply with Milledge next year, which means a bat like Soriano's could play an important role in the offense. Ultimately, I think this move will not happen for three reasons: (1) he's probably going to be traded and locked-up by another team before the post-season; (2) the Mets could really use a left-handed bat at second base to preserve the great balance they've had in the lineup this year, since a righty in Milledge will be replacing a lefty in Floyd; and (3) I think Nady will emerge as someone who can handle the 6-slot responsibilities that Floyd currently occupies, and do it well. That said, despite Soriano's obvious appeal, I think the Metties will still be in the second base market after Soriano's off the board.
The guy who I think makes a lot of sense for the Mets is Adam Kennedy. He's proven himself capable of hitting .300 in the past, and is a lifetime .280 guy. He's a left handed bat, 30 years old, a gold-glove caliber fielder, and can likely be had for a lot less money than the big names that will be out there this winter, which will save up money for pitching. As a 7 or 8 hitter he would be more than adequate, a huge upgrade over say, Anderson Hernandez.
Starting pitching is where the Metties need to make some hay. Glavine and Pedro are doing the job, but next year will almost certainly be Glavine's last and Pedro's penultimate campaign. Top-of-the-rotation talent needs to be acquired that will go beyond the next two years. Pelfrey is being considered a top-three type pitcher right now, but even if he pans out as such in a couple of years, we'll need another playoff type starter next year and another one the year after that. The obvious name right now is Barry Zito, and I think the Mets need to throw money at him. He's been dependable, sucks up tons of innings, hasn't shown a lot of drop off from his earlier years (a la Mulder), is a lefty among a sea of young Met righties, still has another 5-10 years left in his arm (in all probability), and has a great rapport with Mets pitching coach (and former A's pitching coach) Rick Peterson.
So there's my wish list for this off-season to keep the dynasty going: Kennedy and Zito. The year after another starting pitcher might be needed for Pedro, if he retires post-'08 as he's already indicated he's considering, and we'll have to see how LoDuca's body is holding up behind the plate. But that's two years away. First, I want to enjoy the ride to post-season meaningfulness this year, and see the pieces put in place to maintain success into 2008.
Cross posted at The Occasional Observer
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