Free Agents

Rumors that the Mets will pursue Posada. I'm on the fence with this one since he'll probably command at least $12-13 M/yr for 3 years. I doubt he'll be as good as he was this year, but we don't have a lot of great options here, and Posada certainly adds the right character influence to the team and potentially a solid bat.

I wonder if the Mets will try to pursue Schilling. Normally I'd be opposed to going after someone his age, especially since I think it is essential that this team gets younger in the offseason. However, I like the fact that Schill is only asking for a one-year deal. My guess is Sox will want to keep him, since they can't quite be sure whether Daisuke will be another Beckett (rough first year, dominant after that), or show no improvement. Also can't be positive what they'll get out of a full season of Lester, Buccholz, etc. But I could see a rotation of Pedro, Schilling, Maine, Perez, Pelfrey, and then try to pick up Santana or Haren.

A-rod is most likely going to Dodgers with Torre, so Dodgers will be a force with offense + pitching. At least we have Penny's #.

Red Sox prove to be real deal

Unlike the Mets prospects--Pelf, Humber, Milledge, and Gomez--who are supposedly right on the verge of breaking through, the Red Sox prospects have broken through since day 1, right through world series. Whether you look at the superb hitting and fielding of pedroia and ellsbury, or the top-shelf pitching of papelbon, buccholz, and lester (not to mention gabbard who they traded for gagne), the red sox seemingly have not only the deepest and most talented farm system, but also the players who are most likely to make an impact immediately upon being brought into majors. Whether this is a reflection of: (a) good minor league coaching, (b) solid coaching and veterans at MLB level to guide the youngsters, (c) good scouting by Sox, or (d) a combo of all three, is unclear but probably (d). In any case you can all but guarantee that with the pitching, hitting, fielding and youth the Sox have they will be WS favorites for several years to come.

A-roid

Might the Mets pursue A-rod? I think there is an outside possibility, due to the following reason. The Mets desperately need pitching, yet it seems hard to envision a way that the Mets could pick up any top pitchers this offseason. With no good free agents, and a thin farm system for the Mets to use as trade bait, I'm not sure they will be able to land the top pitchers they need. So, it is possible that as an alternative they might go the way of the Yankees: all offense. If you pick up A-rod and move Wright to first, you can dump Delgado and also improve infield defense.

I must reiterate my earlier position though, the Mets should not pursue A-rod at the salary #s they're talking about. Unless Boras is willing to significantly drop A-rod's salary to $20 M/year or less, he's not worth it with his pathetic post-season stats.

NL

NL must stand for "novice league." Nice to see that the rockies are being embarrassed, about to be swept out of WS. The team that couldn't lose in NL, won 21 of 22, and 7 in a row in playoffs, is about to be handled by the red sox. Yet another embarrassment for the NL. Rockies shouldn't even be in WS.

Good news

Good news for me. I get to spend all day listening to the radio, TV, and co-workers talking about how great New England sports are. They are the best, and NY is the worst. The Red Sox are in WS, yet again, unlike the pathetic Mets and Tankees. The Pats are all but guaranteed another SuperBowl victory and perhaps a 16-0 season on top of it, while the Jets are losers. Luckily no one follows the NBA anymore (I haven't since 2000), b/c if I did then I'd have to hear about how the Celtics look like the team to beat in East, and they outmaneuvered every other GM with their offseason acquisitions, while Knicks are embroiled in Isiah Thomas land.

Oh yeah, and BC is now ranked #2.

Apparently no one else around the country knows how to assemble or manage a team, since no one can beat Boston.

Good stuff. Hope Omar and Tannenbaum are taking notes.

Jose Jose Jose

In considering Jose's season, I've read a lot of comments by different analysts and blogs, with a wide range of opinions as expected. However, one thing I really haven't seen discussed much is the importance of consistency. Look at Jose's #s on the season:

.280 / .354 / 119 R / 78 SB / 12 HR / 57 RBI

On the whole a good year. Not a great year, but certainly not a bad year, when only considering the final #s. The problem is that as is often the case with #s, they don't tell the whole story, the whole story being a brilliant first half and hideous second half. It is no good to end up with those #s the way Jose did. It doesn't help the team if he is that inconsistent during the season, regardless of how great his first half was. I realize baseball is a game of streaks, but the truly great players find a way to smooth those out as much as possible, and minimize extended downturns.

Now, despite the fact that Jose's been in the majors for 5 years, he is still only 24. So perhaps he needs another season or two to fully develop. And one very positive thing is that in almost every category he has generally improved one season to the next. Which gets to my key point: if I'm the Mets, I make sure I have someone emphasizing to Jose the importance of consistency and making that a goal next season. He has always had what seem to be very long hot and cold streaks, perhaps he needs another approach during cold times. Simply slap the bat and try to get a single here or there, it will make all the difference in the world. I think at times a lot of these players either forget or underestimate the value of a simple single. String a few of them in a row, and you've got a bona fide rally. You don't need a 4 HR game to pull yourself out of a slump and endear yourself with the fans again. Getting on base will do that.

Zero sum game

I can't say I'm too surprised that Sabathia and Carmona have had poor performances in the playoffs thus far. Carmona b/c he's so young, and Sabathia b/c he has so little post-season experience. In many cases the somewhat inflated #s these types of players put up in the regular season quickly get shattered once you hit the playoffs and tough competition. What is surprising, however, is just how well Westbrook and Byrd pitched against Sox, stepping up for their team. Very similar to Maine and Perez last year. Those are always pleasant surprises.

Trade

I'm sure there are a lot of good trades the Mets could make in the offseason that will improve their chances in '08; I certainly haven't thought through them. However, here's one off the top of my head that might make a lot of sense. Pick up Torii Hunter and trade Beltran to Red Sox. First, let's compare Hunter to Beltran to make sure we don't lose too much:

Hunter (career): .271 / .324 / 25 HR / 93 RBI / 88 R, age 32
Beltran (career): .280 / .354 / 29 HR / 107 RBI / 113 R, age 30
Hunter ('07): .287 / .334 / 28 HR / 107 RBI / 94 R
Beltran ('07): .276 / .353 / 33 HR / 112 RBI / 93 R

While Beltran has an edge, it's not huge, and their '07 production was very similar.

Now to the Red Sox. They are dying with the combo of Nancy Drew and Coco Crisp in OF. The run production stinks. While Manny is awesome and they look to have a super rookie in Ellsbury, they still need a good veteran offensive CF. While Coco is perhaps the best fielding CF I've seen this year, Sox wouldn't lose much defensively by switching to Beltran, and they'd gain a ridiculous amount of offense. So I'm sure if they don't get Torii themselves as FA, they'd love a trade for B-tran. In return, what do we get? Not sure exactly, but here are some attractive options:

Manny Delcarmen: RP, solid reliever, age 25. In '07: 44 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 41 Ks:17 BBs, 11 holds, 1 sv, 1 BLSV.
Clay Buccholz: SP, age 23, threw NH this year. In '07: 4 G, 22.7 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 22 Ks:10 BBs, 0 HR. One of Sox's top pitching prospects.
Dustin Pedroia: rookie 2B, likely to win AL rookie of the year, age 24. In '07: .317 / .380 / 8 HR / 50 RBI / 86 R. Turned 78 DP with .990 fielding % (5th best of all MLB 2B).
Kevin Youkilis: 1B, age 28. Career: .280 / .383 / 15 HR / 79 RBI / 93 R. Perfect 1.000 fielding %, 0 errors in '07. We could dump Delgado and his huge salary.

Good to Great

I am reminded of a saying I once heard with respect to company performance, that the enemy of being great is not being bad, but rather being good. The reasoning is quite simple: if you are bad, everyone knows it and it is easy to justify the radical restructuring necessary to turn things around and become great. When you are good, however, performance improvements are much harder to undertake. Who wants to rock the boat and risk making things worse when they are already good?

The problem is that good is not good enough. The Mets must strive to be great. A lot of people say keep player 'x' or 'y', for example Glavine. While it's true that Glavine is certainly an above average pitcher and certainly good, what he is not (anymore) is great. And the Mets need great. If Glavine is in our top 3 starters next year, we will not be great. Same goes for the collective lot of Green, Delgado, PLD, Duque, Castillo, Chavez, and Heilman. They are definitely good, no question. But they are not great. Not once you factor in either the extended time off they each face due to injuries or drop-off in performance due to aging.

This will be the biggest question confronting Mets management and fans - do they want a good team, or a great team? Picking up re-treads is simply not a way to be great. I hope the Mets try to next-level it in '08 and '09 and go for being great.

Just say no...

...to Boras and A-Rod.

So over the past week or two we had kicked around the idea (as had all of NY) that what if the Mets traded Reyes and went after A-rod. I've thought about it more and I am strongly against this idea for a few reasons.

1. Post-season performance. While A-rod is one of the best (see point 2) during the regular season, his inability to produce in post-season a la Bonds cannot go overlooked. I'm sorry, but getting your team to the playoffs is only half the battle - what you do in the playoffs is just as important, perhaps more. So I have a hard time getting fired up about someone who doesn't perform well in playoffs, despite whatever #s they put up in regular season.

2. Regular-season #s and $. Boras claims A-rod is perhaps the most valuable player of all time, and is seeking completely over-the-top, unjustifiable salary #s. I don't think he even comes close to being worth it. For one, how much better is he really than other players? A-rod's seasonal career averages: .306 / .389 / 44 HR / 128 RBI. Pretty good. But if A-rod is worth that much, then how about Manny Ramirez: .313 / .409 / 41 HR / 133 RBIs. Better #s. How about Mike Piazza: .308 / .377 / 36 HR / 113 RBI? How about Ortiz: .289 / .384 / 36 HR / 120 RBIs (and that includes his lean years in Min!) Or Vlad Guerrero: .325 / .391 / 37 HR / 119 RBIs. Or Barry Bonds: .298 / .444 / 41 / 108. And so on and so on. A-rod's #s are excellent, don't get me wrong. But I just don't think they are that much better than quite a few players around the league. Boras is asking too much money for someone who isn't clearly the Michael Jordan of the league, especially when you consider his disappearance in October every year.

3. Age. Despite Boras' claims that A-rod can play until he's 45, I doubt he'll play a good 3B or SS that long. At some point his fielding #s on left side of IF will fall off, so he will become a defensive liability. Perhaps he's still got at least 3-5 more years before that happens, but nonetheless he's already 32.

The Mets have a lot more needs than adding some RBIs during the regular season. They need to seriously beef up their pitching staff if they want to go anywhere in postseason. Look at the 4 teams in ALDS and NLDS. Boston and Cleveland had #1 and #3 ERAs in AL, respectively, while Arizona and Colorado were 4 and 8 in NL. So 3 of the 4 teams had top 5 ERAs, that's not a coincidence. Mets should save their money to go for pitching, and then work on batting approach in spring training.

Alex Nelson plays the Blame Game

Over at MetsGeek, Alex has posted a very clear-headed analysis of Minaya's performance last offseason. Well worth reading. In the end, he finds the Scho and Mota signings the most questionable moves, moreso than the trades which look bad with the benefit of hindsight. His discussion of the roster moves follows:

...Minaya isn’t in danger of being fired, but there is still a bad taste left over from the job he did with the roster construction.

But is he really to blame for every fault with the composition of the team? I’m not sure. To figure that out, here are two questions we can ask about each “mistake” Omar made this year:

1. Could the [departing/arriving/returning] player’s [success/failure] have realistically been forecasted prior to the move?

2. Did the player [departing/arriving/returning] fit into the team’s long- and short-term plans?

I’m going to attempt to apply these questions to a couple of the maneuvers that Minaya has taken the most flak for.

November 15th: Traded RP Heath Bell and RP Royce Ring to the Padres for OF Ben Johnson and RP Jon Adkins

With the bullpen’s late-season meltdown, many suddenly noticed that Bell had been lights-out for the Padres, finishing with a 2.02 ERA over 93.7 innings, while striking out 104, walking 30, and giving up just three homers. I can’t say his success came as a huge surprise to many at MetsGeek; Bell was named the site’s official pitcher way back in spring 2005. Here were Bell’s career numbers up to the point of the trade:

Where ERA K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9
Minors 3.17 10.4 2.5 7.9 0.71
Majors 4.92 8.8 2.5 10.8 1.17

Great strikeout numbers, great walk numbers, but he had a tendency to leave the ball out over the plate at the big league level which resulted in too many hits and more homers than you’d like. Ultimately, his success wasn’t a fluke, but a reflection of his prior performances.

Did Bell fit into the team’s short-term plans? Honestly, probably not. Bell was out of options and didn’t offer any sort of roster flexibility if he failed to impress Randolph and Rick Peterson (again). After giving up some big innings in 2006, the coaching staff’s faith in Bell was obviously shaken—not to mention the fans’ faith as well. There was no outrage when Bell departed. Long-term? 29-year-old middle relievers just shouldn’t factor into those plans. I was sorry to see him go, but I also thought he needed a change of scenery. He just wasn’t going to get a fair shake in New York.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Johnson, who was Minaya’s primary target in this deal. Johnson was a toolsy prospect who never quite figured things out at either the minor or major league levels. Projected as a fourth outfielder, who could provide some pop off the bench, despite possessing limited contact ability and on-base skills. Adkins was an arm with no upside but had the benefit of still having options, providing some depth to make up for the losses of Ring and Bell.

Final verdict: Letting Bell go wasn’t a big mistake; getting Johnson and Adkins in return probably was. Had they received an arm with upside and a safer fifth outfielder in return instead (the inverse of what they actually received), I’d be happier with the deal.

November 20th: Traded RP Matt Lindstrom and RP Henry Owens for SP Adam Bostick and SP Jason Vargas

Owens pitched okay in 2007, even winning the closer’s job at one point, but got hurt frequently and really didn’t make much of an impact. The big loss is Lindstrom. Was Lindstrom’s success something I saw coming? Not really, but I should have. He had made nice strides after repeating AA at Binghamton, where he went 2-4 with a 3.76 ERA while striking out 54 and walking 14 over 40.2 innings. The walk and strikeout rates represented huge improvements over anything he had shown previously (especially the walk rate). Lindstrom had a phenomenal arm, but he was considered very raw for a 27-year-old pitcher due to his going on a Mormon mission early in his career. Owens was in a similar place thanks to his early years as a catcher.

Vargas was a guy with a pretty good fastball and a great changeup. He was considered relatively major league ready, had solid stuff, and had performed fairly well at the minor league level. In truth, he was a good guy to have around as a sixth or seventh starter, which was important when the bottom of the rotation was as uncertain as it was.

Was Lindstrom in the Mets short-term plans? No. I felt he needed at least a couple months at AAA to determine whether the 40 innings at Binghamton represented true improvement. Since the Marlins were desperate for help in the bullpen, they kept him with the big club and he pitched very well (3.37 ERA with strong peripherals). Lindstrom might have fitted into the Mets’ long-term plans, but it’s tough to really think of minor league relievers in that way.

Final verdict: Omar traded two minor league relievers—albeit good ones—for two so-so minor league starters. I have mixed feelings about this one; I generally like it whenever you can turn relievers into starters, and the depth Vargas provided was reassuring at the time. But Brian Bannister, a pitcher I liked better than Vargas, was around, and Lindstrom had really become an intriguing pitcher. With his stuff and a breakthrough in AA, I’d want to see more. A mistake, though really only when considered next to…

December 6th: Traded SP Brian Bannister to the Royals for RP Ambiorix Burgos

Bannister had made the Mets out of spring training and hadn’t pitched great. But his minor league track record was fantastic, and it was reasonable to assume he’d sort out his control issues with time, which is just what he did with the Royals in a great rookie campaign. His strikeout ratio is poor and he gives up too many flies for my liking, making him due for a regression next season, but he’s certainly capable of being an average starter in the AL.

Burgos is where things went wrong. Burgos has a live arm, and he had a promising season at the big league level.in 2005, but struggled badly in 2006. The truth of the matter was Burgos’s total lack of control has always prevented him from being a good pitcher at any level. But that wasn’t even the most distressing thing. In a blog post, Kansas City Star columnist Joe Posnanski questioned his pitching intelligence, reporting that he had a tendency to fall in love with his splitter and had no feel for the art whatsoever. In a particularly prescient moment, he even questioned Burgos throwing so hard his first days in camp, wondering if elbow ligament surgery was on the horizon.

Bannister could have fit into the Mets’ short-term plans by serving in Vargas’s supposed role as a starter in reserve at New Orleans quite capably. Long-term, he didn’t fit in well; top pitching prospects Phil Humber and Mike Pelfrey were around, as were Oliver Perez and John Maine. There just wasn’t much room for him. Meanwhile, Burgos fit into the Mets’ long-term plans better, since he was more of a reclamation project than a true major-league ready reliever. I’m sure when Minaya traded for him, he had images of Billy Wagner’s replacement in his head.

Final verdict: Mistake. Bannister was more valuable to the Mets than Vargas, and Minaya got mesmerized by Burgos, who still has time to turn things around.

Signed RP Guillermo Mota and RP Scott Schoeneweis to multi-year deals

I won’t spend too much time on this, but it was a mistake. There were legitimate questions about both players’ performances, especially with Mota serving a steroid suspension to start the season. Furthermore, it’s never a good idea to sign veteran relievers to long-term deals, and it’s even worse when they’ve had long stretches of ineffectiveness throughout their careers.

Omar Minaya did not have a great offseason. However, some of the moves don’t look as bad in retrospect. Heath Bell had a great season, but he didn’t fit into the Mets’ plans, and with him out of options there was a fair chance he would have been lost for nothing come April anyway. And while Lindstrom and Owens were promising pitchers, let’s not ignore that they were old minor league relievers with little-to-no experience past AA. They could have been useful, but Minaya did turn them into two starting pitchers who weren’t without upside. Even the Bannister trade wasn’t totally without merit at the time, because he really didn’t fit into the Mets’ plans either, and Omar wanted some more relief depth. They really only don’t make sense when considered together. I can’t defend the latter two free agent acquisitions; they were bad contracts at the time and look worse now.

Ultimately, the sorts of moves that were working for him the year before, just didn’t pan out this season.

As they say in the Bronx:

it's all about the rings. And the for the Yanks, it's now been seven (7) straight seasons of leading the ML in payroll and not taking the prize.

Sometimes you get the bear, and sometimes the Tribe can throw Paul Byrd at you.

Better luck next year, Bombers.

Without Torre. And maybe not A-Rod.

Good job, Phils

Mets gift wrapped the NL East for them. Phils stamped it return to sender.

It's an East Coast Thang

When will the Mets or Yankees be better than Sox, or Jets or Giants be better than Pats? That NY - with two teams in each sport - has been shown up by Boston constantly for the past 6 years is growing old. It is time for NY teams to rise up again and win it all.

Jose

As I think about it more, I am leaning strongly against trading Reyes (unless some ridiculously obvious trade presented itself, i.e. Reyes for Santana straight up). I think the Mets should continue to build around the trio of Reyes-Wright-Beltran, but they need to really sit down with Reyes in a few weeks and have a serious conversation. First, they need to understand what happened in the 2nd half of the season. Was his dropoff in production due solely to fatigue (as people speculated about Wright last year after HR derby)? If so, then they need to adjust next year so that he's not playing 160 games and attempting 99 SBs. If it wasn't due to fatigue, then it's due to approach and plate discipline. On the positive side his SOs have held steady at ~80 for 3 years, while his BBs have increased. However, he had way too many fly ball outs. I think they need to adjust his swing and approach (this is true for a lot of the team, but especially Reyes). They need to set a target for Reyes of .310+ BA and .390+ OBP. All he should be thinking about all season is how to maintain those #s. Forget the HRs and 3Bs, focus on hitting singles and if possible stretching them into doubles. It probably wasn't helpful that at the end of '06 Willie made a comment that he could see Reyes being a 20-25 HR guy. I'm sure that enters his thinking and swinging. In any case, if they lay down the law with him and force him to focus on BA and OBP, he will be dominant.

I would say do what you need to do to pick up Santana, then have Santana / Pedro / Maine / Perez / Pelfrey. Put Duque in pen, try to pick up at least two other arms to replace Sele / Scho / Mota / Sosa or whoever is out. Keep Alou, get rid of Green and start Milledge in right. Endy and Gomez are subs, although Gomez could really use another full season at AAA IMO. Dump PLD, sign Posada and give Castro more PT. Whether or not you keep Castillo depends on what terms he wants; if too rich then dump him, and start Gotay for now. I would think though that if Castillo can continue to hit .290+ and give you solid defense, he's worth it. An infield of Wright, Gotay, and Delgado is probably too much of a defensive liability (unless gotay improves), you'll need to find a better 2B and 1B. Not sure where you do that though, since Teixeira isn't FA until '08 and will be resigned by Braves this year anyway.

If I had to guess though, no way we get Santana. We just don't have enough young proven prospects to make it happen. Twins will probably want Pelfrey, Humber, and Milledge / Gomez in return, at least. The problem is one of numbers: with practically no one good available as FA, we can't afford to give trade away all those players we are banking on to be starters next year. I don't think we can keep all of Green, Delgado, Alou, Duque, and Glavine. It's just a re-tread of the same team from the last two years, and they are not getting any younger or less likely to be injured. But who do you replace them with, if we have to trade Milledge, Pelfrey, etc.?

Kaz Matsui

That's good stuff. Grand slam, 3B, 2B, 3-5 with 5 RBIs.

Glavine will not exercise his player option

So says ESPN. This means that the Mets hands cannot be forced into bringing him back. I think it would be all but impossible for Tommy to perform here going forward, so a parting of the ways seems inevitable.

I will miss for Glavine for all the great attributes he brought to the table, on which I elaborated here.

Alas, Tom, in your final three starts, you have stomped on my broken heart. Why Tommy, why?

Party like it's 1999 (or 2007)

Red Sox show how to party after clinching at sports bar right across the street from Fenway. Perhaps the metties could take a lesson in '08 and save the celebrating for when they actually have something to celebrate.

Walking wounded

The Mets seem to be piling up injuries faster than the law of statistics would suggest is expected. Of course we can write-off the older players as expected, including Valentin, Alou, and Duque. Now add to that from the end of last year Pedro, Sanchez, and Delgado (wrist at start of season, broken hand at end of season). But what's troubling is the younger players also injured: Beltran just had arthroscopic surgery on both his knees, Maine is now indicating he had an injured hip all year and might need surgery, and Humber has already had Tommy John surgery.

Omar's in a very bad place this offseason. Practically no one the Mets need is available as free agent, and we don't exactly have a lot of young cheap prospects to trade. The best bet may be a three-way trade between the Mets, a team with a player we want, and a team who would take one of our older vets that they think could add to their chances next year (e.g. a Delgado, Alou, ...) All I know is we need Santana and nothing less. I think grab torii as well.

Willie on Mike & the Dog

Audio here.

Especially interesting hearing his reaction to the questions on the attitude displayed by his young players. Also, on first hearing, it sounds like he's hedging about Omar forcing his hand on choosing some starters down the stretch, but ultimately it sounds like Humber and Lawrence was Omar's call. Also, he makes no bones about being aggravated by Wagner's comments, and basically admits that it was an unnecessary distraction at an inopportune time.

Omar on Mike & the Dog

A long, thorough, and tough interview, that sheds a lot of light on Omar's thinking.

Check it out here.

Let's make it official-

Willie's going to be back next year. More coverage of the annoucement here.

As disappointed as I am with how the season ended--and the manager is not free of blame--I feel in my gut like this is the right move.

Kevin Kernan of the Post made the case for retaining Willie:

OMAR Minaya made his first good decision of the Mets much too early offseason yesterday by keeping Willie Randolph as manager.

If Minaya had fired Randolph, it would have been another loss for the team that has turned losing into an art form. Plus, with Randolph gone, the bull's-eye would have shifted from Randolph's back squarely onto Minaya's. No GM wants that to be the case.

This way, if the Mets stagger out of the gate next year, Minaya still has someone to blame and Randolph will be history. But as George Steinbrenner might say in a statement: "It's on Omar and Willie."

Over the last 17 games of the season Randolph was one of the few Mets who appeared to care and when he met with his team behind closed doors after that last terrible loss, Randolph cried because of the golden opportunity that slipped away from the Mets.

If only his Mets cared as much about winning as he did.

That said, Randolph, like all the Mets has to make changes. His No. 1 challenge is to make the Mets care more about winning. He has to make them understand there are consequences for their childless actions. They need to worry more about the game than their dance routines...

...It wouldn't hurt either if Minaya helped Randolph out by acquiring the ace the Mets desperately need. That player is sitting out there in Minnesota.

If you want to make Willie Randolph a better manager Omar, trade for Johan Santana. That would also make you a better GM.

Santana said he would waive his no-trade clause for the right deal so this should be the Mets No. 1 priority. Not looking for scapegoats when the reason they failed is simple: the players choked away the season.

Essentially the Mets did not adhere to the most basic premise of pro sports: Don't fear your opponent, but respect him. The Mets thought they were so much better than everyone else.

What Omar has to do now that he has retained Randolph is get out of his way and let Willie run the club. Get out of the way and get players. There has to be fewer visits to the clubhouse from Omar and his top aides.

Minaya is a nice guy who tends to be too friendly with his players. He has to draw the line. He's management. They're players. He has to remember that and cannot undermine Randolph's authority by being everybody's buddy. If Randolph gets all over Jose Reyes, the GM has to back him up. Players like Lastings Milledge should not come up to the majors thinking they can get away with antics that would not be tolerated in other organizations.

But they do get away with them. The organization has to believe in tough love.

The challenge will be difficult for Minaya, Randolph and the Mets. Because now the only question that matters is this one and it will be asked every day: What did you do today as a team, as an organization, as a GM, as a manager, as a player to prevent another epic collapse?

No one will care about anything else. The Mets don't need scapegoats right now, they need to change their way of thinking and bring in a No. 1 pitcher.

Problem solved.

All I want for Christmas...

OK, so it's a little early to be putting together my Christmas wish list. But, since day one of the offseason began two days ago for the Mets, maybe it's not that early. Here are four things I'd request from the Mets.

1. From Willie: Please, please, please set the tone early on that focus and discipline and professionalism at the plate are required, not optional. I think the Mets cost themselves a lot of runs this year by showing complete disinterest at the plate when they stepped up with 2 outs and no RISP. That's basically wasting 9 outs a game, or 1/3 of your chances. I watched a lot of Sox and Yanks games, and it seems to me that in most cases regardless of the situation (up 5 runs, down 5 runs, 1st inning or 9th inning), those teams always came to the plate looking to get a hit with 2 outs. They mounted a lot of rallies that way. After all, it only takes a double and single, or walk + SB + single to score a run. Not that outrageous to conceive. The Mets, by contrast, had a "well this inning is basically over so let's just hurry up and get this at bat over so I can get back to the dugout" look in their eyes whenever they came to the plate with 2 outs and no RISP. Even if you score no runs, it's still a good opportunity to drive up pitch count - which is something the Sox and Yanks excelled at, but Mets were not good at. So, I'd like to see Willie bench players early in the season if they consistently show a lack of focus.

2. From Omar: Dump Scho and Sele. Hold on to Mota, b/c players off the 'roids can often turn it around the following year. We should have a good sense of whether or not Mota fits this mold by April or May.

3. From Omar: Trade or do not re-sign at least some of the following players: Glavine, Delgado, Duque, and Green. Dump some salary here to make room for request #4.

4. Pick up a #1 pitcher, preferably Santana. If not, look to trade with Indians, Dodgers, Pads, Sox (red or white), or A's. Then, consider a rotation of: new pitcher / Pedro / Maine / Perez / Pelfrey, and move Duque to the pen. Even though you will be overpaying for a reliever, he will be phenomenal: he can eat up a ton of innings, and baffle hitters along the way.

Los Bravos...

...are starting to move quickly in offseason. Right away they cut Andruw Jones, an expected move. Reasoning is given here:

The Braves plan to use the money they'll save on Jones to bolster their starting rotation -- a glaring weakness beyond John Smoltz and Tim Hudson -- and to sign first baseman Mark Teixeira, who made $9 million this year and is eligible for arbitration.

I forgot Teixeira wasn't signed to a multi-year deal. Wonder if there's any chance Mets could snag him if he goes for arbitration and value goes too high. That would be a massive coup, and instantly bolster the lineup. Can you imagine a 3-4-5-6 of Wright-Beltran-Teixeira-Alou? Or Beltran-Tex-Wright-Alou.

Now, I wonder what pitchers the Braves had in mind to pursue. Not a lot of good options on FA market. And fortunately I don't think they have any prospects of interest as trade bait.

In summary

Fredo posted a similar quote below, but I reproduce another one from Delgado here:

"I think we have to play harder, execute better and stay focused for 162 games," Delgado said.

That this quote is in fact true, and confirms suspicions that the Mets were often mailing it in, is infuriating to no end. The whole point of having veteran players and role models on the team, and a coach who learned under Torre, is precisely to avoid this type of situation. They are supposed to kick the ass of any rookies who have the attitude of entitlement and lackadaisical approach, keeping them honest that "the division is theirs to lose" is a loser attitude. You've got to go out there and fight for it every day.

The sad thing is that this attitude permeated all aspects of the team. The batting throughout the entire season. Fielding down the stretch. And pitchers would constantly seem disinterested in slamming the door on an inning once they had 2 outs. I don't know how many 2 out rallies against the Mets I had to watch this year, that started with no one on base. Or Maine and others would cruise through three then seem like completely different players who were physically but not mentally present come innings 4-6.

This ought to be a solid lesson for those who remain on the team, one that I hope is grounded into their heads every game and every inning next season.

Buster Olney steals my idea

From his blog:

Santana for Reyes make sense?
posted: Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Johan Santana is willing to waive his no-trade clause if the Twins want to deal him, writes La Velle Neal.

If the Twins look to deal him, the Angels and Dodgers and Diamondbacks might have the best collection of prospects from which to make trades. In the aftermath of the Mets' collapse, here's another thought -- Minnesota could ask for Jose Reyes in a deal, offering Santana, shortstop Jason Bartlett in return for Reyes and outfielder Carlos Gomez and at least one pitcher (Mike Pelfrey?).

Pure speculation, but it makes a lot of sense for both sides to have the conversation -- the Mets would get the kind of staff ace they need, the Twins could benefit in a big way from landing Reyes, who is already locked up to an affordable multiyear deal (he'll make a total of $18.75 million over the next three seasons, and has an $11 million option for 2011). If the team trades Santana and lands the affordable contract of Reyes, Minnesota would have enough money to re-sign Torii Hunter.

Before the Twins get to that point, of course, they should make their best possible pitch to sign Santana, and if he says no and seems headed for free agency, than they should talk to the Dodgers, Angels, Mets and any other interested team. If they did work out a Reyes trade, this is what the top of their lineup could look like next year:

SS Reyes
LF Gomez
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
CF Torii Hunter
DH TBD
3B TBD
2B Alexi Casilla


The Twins would have a team in place that could contend next year, if Francisco Liriano were to come back and be a factor. Joe Mauer soon will learn if he needs hernia surgery. Liriano remains on schedule from elbow surgery, writes Joe Christensen.

This makes sense for the Mets because they would have the young ace pitcher they desperately need -- but the Mets or any other team should insist, before making any deal, that they be given a negotiating window to talk with Santana about his next contract.

Reyes and a lower level prospect for Santana, OK. I don't think I could do Reyes&Pelfrey&Gomez for Santana.

BTW, Bartlett's career stats, from espen:

Batting
Year G/AB Avg/HR/RBI BB/K
2004 8/12 .083/0/1 1/1
2005 74/224 .241/3/16 21/37
2006 99/333 .309/2/32 22/46
2007 140/51 .265/5/43 50/73

He's been with Minny his whole career. He also had 10 SB in '06 and 23 in '07

Good news, boys!

These just arrived in the mail over the weekend:

So I guess now I can invite SHK and DC to join me at Shea Thursday night. How about Cristo's for some pre-game eats and beverages at 5:00?

Willie

Interesting tact by Wilpon, if true. He has basically told Minaya that he either sinks or swims with Willie, his call. I do have to reiterate that this is the 2nd year in a row that the Mets have had a September meltdown and finished poorly. While clearly Omar and the players bear a huge amount of the responsibility for this debacle of a season, this particular aspect has to be on Willie.

Oh, and in case you needed another reason to hate Scho.