Offseason

While Omar sits around and proclaims his satisfaction with his current rotation, other NL teams are taking steps to improve. D-backs just got Haren, pairing him up with Webb, giving them a lights-out 1-2 punch. If we don't get Bedard or Santana or Kazmir, I think we're not in playoffs next year, figuring that Phillies beat us in NL east again.

PLD on "the list"

Lo Duca was among those included in the Mitchell Report, leading one to wonder if Omar knew and that's why he's gone now.

Missing the point entirely

I am sick and tired of hearing Omar say the Mets pitching staff is fine, on the basis that we have Maine and Perez.

Minaya was referring to 26-year-olds John Maine and Oliver Perez, who, in his mind, both turned a corner last year.

Whether or not Maine and Perez have "turned a corner" is only a secondary point. The main point is Pedro, Duque, and #5. It is an absolute FACT that El Duque will be injured at some point next season, and most likely when we need him most. It is also a fact that we have no clear #5 starter, since Pelfrey seems incapable. Finally, and most importantly, you can't possibly know what to expect out of Pedro in terms of durability. I am pretty comfortable saying that if he is healthy, he'll be a legit #1 after seeing the way he pitched in September. But can anyone honestly feel comfortable that he will be in a position to pitch the whole season and post-season after coming off major surgery? That's a huge gamble in my mind, especially when your #2 is guaranteed to be injured.

Finally, Perez for me has only "turned a corner" when he stops his binomial distribution of pitching: either a gem or a bust. He needs some more stability and consistency. When he's on, he's simply unbelievable and perhaps our best pitcher. But without consistency, he can't be better than a #3 or #4 on a team that truly wants to contend for WS.

Los Mets

Of course everyone who follows the Mets has heard or made the observation that Omar seems to prefer Latino players. This list from a Page 2 article does nothing to dispel that notion:

Nearly five years ago, when Jose Reyes debuted as New York's spark plug of the future, fans were excited. When, nearly three years ago, the Mets added Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez, fans were elated. When, however, Minaya added Perez and Chavez and Valentin and Ambiorix Burgos and Orlando Hernandez and Eli Marrero and Julio Franco and Ricky Ledee and Jose Lima and Sandy Alomar Jr. and Jorge Julio and Duaner Sanchez and Geremi Gonzalez and Miguel Cairo and Jorge Sosa and Ramon Castro and Luis Castillo and Jose Offerman and Carlos Delgado and Ruben Gotay and Guillermo Mota and Moises Alou and ...well, the bloom is off the rose."

Mets prospects

According to this, it sounds like our "prospects" are the laughingstock of the league. I have to say, I definitely was very concerned with the performance of both Pelf and Humber last year; neither really showed any signs of progress over the season. On the other hand, one has to wonder whether the Mets are shooting themselves in the foot by bringing up their rookies a season too early (almost certainly true for Joe Smith, Pelfrey, Gomez, Milledge, ...) This has two negatives: first, it almost certainly hinders proper development of the players, which in turn causes negative feedback. Second, it provides a negative showcase of our talent as potential trade bait, since they underperform expectations. Or, perhaps Pelf and Humber are just highly overrated busts like Pulsipher and Wilson.

Given the age of this team, assuming no major trades this offseason by Mets, we need at least three of Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey, Smith, Gomez, and F-mart to become legit MLB talents if the Mets are going to be competing in the next 3-5 years. Otherwise, they are going to have to trade a premier player like Wright, Reyes, or Beltran to pick up a bunch of young prospects in return.

Looks like we might gather all the Nats flotsam

if this story proves true.

I need someone to square this circle

From today's Newsday:

As for the Mets, chips like Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez and Philip Humber are not proven commodities yet. Even Mike Pelfrey, who is 5-9 with a 5.55 ERA the past two seasons, is not a sure thing.

Minaya is shopping these names around -- he met with Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail about left-hander Erik Bedard -- but there does not seem to be enough to get a [Bedard] deal done.

From last week's Newsday:

Before making Friday's trade, Minaya called other potential trade partners and was told that dealing Milledge to the Nationals would not hinder the Mets' chances of obtaining a front-line starter. Carlos Gomez is the young outfielder other teams want.

Said Minaya, "We were told that if we were to move Lastings, we have enough talent in our system to be able to complete deals for the guys we're talking about."

Hey Omar, last week you said there was still enough on the farm to reel in a big fish. Now, word is, Bedard will take more chips than we have.

What the E?

I guess I should have known that things were heading in a bad direction when Omar had to solicit the opinions of other GM's on the value of his remaining prospects. That's right, apparently Omar took the word of our opponents in determining how to proceed.

Next up on Occ Obs: W solicits Mahmoud's opinion on whether the US military is capable of occupying N Korea.

What the E?

It's headlines like this that I love:

Minaya: New York Mets don't need to trade for big-name pitcher

Omar just scares me sometimes. If he thinks this is going to help him keep other GM's expectations down on what he'll offer, he must be sampling his own product. The Mets obviously need a front line starter. We obviously need to win NOW, what with the new ballpark coming up, and the fact we're a major market team with the budget to win every year). Pedro as a #1 and Duque as a #2 is a joke with the mileage those two have seen. We desperately need the arm. Obviously, either Gomez or F Mart is going to be dealt. Same for Pelfrey, Humber or Mulvey. My WAG for a Bedard offer is Heilman, Pelf and Gomez.

Bedard

There are rumors Mets might be pursuing Bedard. I have to say that the trend of his numbers over the last 4 years is so incredible as to be hard to believe. I haven't heard much about his recovery since his oblique strain, but I assume no lasting damage.

Check out his steady and significant improvement over time in almost every category of importance: ERA, Ks, BBs, AVG, SLG, OBP, IP, OPS, W-L, etc. Pretty amazing trend.

Quote of the day

Not baseball-related, but this is still funny:

Asked if the Jets did anything on offense that that Dolphins didn't expect, (Jason) Taylor said, "Score 40 points."