Sunday, September 30, 2007

More questions than answers

There's only one thing to do: focus on the fight to get better, and not dwell over the misery of the past few weeks. As Blutarski said, "Did we quit when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"

That said, there are going to be some large questions that confront the Wilpons and (assuming they keep him) Omar. In no particular order those questions are:

1) Is Jose Reyes part of this team's core, or put another way, can Jose Reyes be a part of a championship core?

Jose has been baffling me and frustrating me since arriving in Flushing. Obviously a player of great talents and gifts, he simply has not been able to put it together and maximize those talents. On the upside, he's got a quick bat, some power, blinding speed, a great arm, good range at short, and all the tools needed to be one of the best SS in MLB.

On the downside, he's immature, unfocused, free-swinging, has poor strike zone recognition, poor pitch recognition, classless (constantly yapping and showing up his opponents), selfish (refusing to accept a lower HR total when that's what would help the team), tremendously unclutch this year (hitting .187 over his last 32 games, and horrible RISP-2O), and he sulks and quits giving effort when things aren't going his way.

You'd like to trade Reyes for a player with similar talent who's not such a head case. Problem is, Phils aren't dealing Rollins.

Point being, you're not going to find a SS of equal talents. So the real question is, can Jose become the type of player that can be a champion, which is not necessarily the same thing as a great player? Can the right manager help him become so? Or maybe the right balance in the clubhouse (maybe a new veteran leadership presence) could get him there? Or is Jose just Jose, kind of like Manny being Manny--just a permanent enigma (although in Jose's case, without the head petting)?

Jose's future, in my mind, is the #1 question for ownership to address, because Jose's trade value at this point in his career is so high that a decision to trade him could lead to a blue chip franchise player coming back--this decision must be made before other needs can be assessed.

2) Can this team move forward under Willie?

The question is not "does Willie deserve to keep his job," even though that's what most fans will be asking. The Wilpons are just finishing, or maybe just finished, paying Art Howe. They just locked Randolph up to a 3 year extension last winter. They don't want to pay another manager to go fishing.

If ownership thinks the team can win under Willie, they'll keep him, even if there's a "better option" out there. Of course, whether the team can follow Willie without being forever reminded of this collapse is an open question at this point. It is so hard to know what goes on behind closed doors, and hard to know if Randolph is still respected by the players. Or whether any blown lead or 3 game losing streak will cause deja vu to settle in over a Randolph-lead clubhouse.

If Willie stays, the next question becomes if he is willing to confront players, and change the culture of this team. It's been a very laissez-faire culture all year long. That might work when you have a team full of veteran professionals, but not when you've got kids like Reyes and Milledge running around making spectacles of themselves.

3) Can this team be championship threat next year?

Look, we know there are FA holes that Mets will have open next year b/c of players who were opening day starters in '07 whose contracts are up: LF (Alou), RF (Green), 2B (Valentin), C (LoDuca). Castillo and Castro's contracts are also up. With the possible combination of retaining some of these players and the rest of the FA market out there, can the Mets realistically win the title next year? That will go a long way towards determining who is retained and what kids get the opportunity. They're not starting the season with Milledge in LF, Gomez in RF, and Gotay at 2B if they think they have a shot to get to the Series.

Of course, if the pitching just isn't available, why not give the kids a shot? The fans love to see home grown talent, the ownsership loves to pay the smaller contract, and the GM loves to have budget flexibility to go after players at other positions when needs come up.

4) Is Delgado finished?

Delgado has 2 years left on a rich contract. If we use a linear model to predict next year's performance, Delgado will hit .039 in 2008. OK, maybe not, but the fall off has been pretty dramatic. I was worried before '07 started that when the end comes for Carlos, it will come quickly. Delgado might have some value left if only for the power numbers he put up this year (still decent in absolute terms, just terrible relative to his career). Does management want to dump him now and not pay him another 8 figure sum in '08 to go .232/22/83, at which point he will also have no value and another season of an 8-figure salary due him. There are no inspiring FA's to be had at 1B (Sean Casey seems the best of the lot, with his .290-something average and single digits homers). Then again, could Wright be moved to 1B or 2B to accomodate a new 3B (ARod? Cabrera?) and eliminate his throwing issues, all in one fell swoop?

5) Is Santana available in a trade?

The answer to this question changes everything.

Surprising, yet not really

Well, I hate to say this collapse was foreseeable and inevitable, but over the past year we've all pointed out the obvious. First, I remind you that we blogged about the exact same September meltdown by the Mets last year. Two years in a row has to be on the manager's head.

Next, we all knew the starting pitching and relief pitching crew assembled by Omar were suspect at best, called out by analysts all season as well as our blogs. We had at least 20 or 30 blogs on this, too numerous to recount, but I highlight the calls about Bannister and bullpen.

Finally, it was obvious that this team was not going to have as good an offense as last year.

I think the entire team, from Minaya to Randolph to the players are to blame. Omar assembled a team that was old, injury-prone, and full of question marks we all identified. Willie had questionable bullpen and lineup strategies, and little to no discipline of the players. And finally the players themselves, who showed poor discipline at the plate all year, sloppy defense down the stretch, no heart or professionalism over the last month, and completely hideous, indescribable pitching.

The bottom line is that I think this meltdown will demoralize and inhibit this set of players for years, and will prevent them from winning down the stretch in a tight race. The inevitable solution is that an infusion of a lot of fresh players and removal of existing players will be key to avoid this. Not sure who you put on this list yet, but definite goners have to be Mota, Scho, and Sele. On the fence have to be Wags, Heilman, Glav (at the money he's going to want, can't afford to keep someone who only pitches as well as the ump is willing to call a sloppy strike zone), Duque (can we afford to pay someone that injury prone that much?), Green, PLD, and Delgado. I think the only definite keepers are Wright, Maine, Pedro, Perez, Milledge, and Reyes (although I think there needs to be a serious sit-down with him in the offseason, to discuss his constant late season meltdowns and tendency towards free-swinging poor plate discipline being flat unacceptable). I'm not sure who you consider trade bait, but the Mets have a LOT of holes to fill, and Omar is going to have his hands full. I don't think Mets will be able to retain Milledge, Gomez, Pelfrey, Humber, and F-Mart, and still make the trades they desperately need to make.

This is a disgrace for the #1 payroll in NL. Absolutely disgusting. I certainly had hoped that all my complaints before and during the season were just excessive caution and pessimism, and Mets would prevail despite these weaknesses. Unfortunately the holes indeed turned out to be real, and too great to overcome. At least with the Mets season over I can now turn my focus to the atrocious Jets, who just lost a stinker to the Bills.

T-minus 30 minutes to gametime

We've got a family tailgate going. Bratwurst on the grill. Potato pancakes and applesauce to top off the Oktoberfest feel. Some Michelob. The missus in a Mets shirt. I'm going with the snow white Jersey and blue hat.

Lets go Mets!

Let the finger pointing begin

Not content to keep any squabbles behind the closed clubhouse doors, Billy Billy Billy has let 'er rip in the second most private place he could think of: an interview with the NY Post. Here we go:

"We've been throwing four innings a night - for months!" Wagner told the magazine. "Our pitching coach has no experience talking to a bullpen. He can help you mechanically, but he can't tell you emotions. He has no idea what it feels like. And neither does Willie. They're not a lot of help, put it that way."

So let me get this straight, Petersen can help you pitch, but he can't help you compensate for your unhappy childhood? Now you know how this guy wore out his welcome in Philly...

Saturday, September 29, 2007

Tomorrow's gonna get really interesting

if this quote from Ramirez captures the mood of the Fish:

"I don't care if it's broke," said Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who left the game after being struck on the left hand by a pitch from Maine (X-rays showed the hand was not broken). "I'm gonna play tomorrow. [Screw] everybody on the Mets. I'm going to kick their [butts]."

Not exactly "it's water under the bridge." A beanball-fest ain't out of the question, especially with the Marlins done after tomorrow.

Here's the he-said she-said on how the 2nd bench clear came to pass:

"When they threw the ball behind Castillo, he was saying to me, 'I'm going to throw the ball to third base and hit you.'" Reyes said. "I thought he was kidding with me because he's good friends with me. When he went to the mound he said, 'Do you want to fight?' I said yes because I thought he was kidding with me. He went after me and then I said, 'OK, let's fight then.'"

Olivo responded: "I went to the mound, waiting for the pitcher and Reyes started talking [crap] about me. He told me he wanted to fight. I said OK. [Marlins third baseman Miguel] Cabrera told him, 'Take it easy.' [Reyes] called me to third base and I showed up. He told me, 'Let's you and me fight.' I said, 'OK, let's go.'"

Wha Happened? Neither of these explanations make a lick of sense.

Best of a bad situation

The last 3 weeks were terrible, but today worked out great. Mets won. Phils lose. Pads lose.

So here are the scenarios for tomorrow:

1&2) Mets Win, Phils Lose, Pads Win or Lose

Mets NL East Champs, Pads WC, Phils go home. Mets get Pads in round 1, D'Backs get Cubs.

3) Mets Win, Phils Win, Pads Win

Mets vs. Phils in 1 game playoff, winner is NL East Champ, loser goes home.
Pads WC. If Mets win playoff, they would get Pads in round 1.

4) Mets Win, Phils Win, Pads Lose

Mets vs. Phils in 1 game playoff, winner is NL East Champ, loser plays Pads in one game playoff Tuesday for WC.

If Mets win NL East and Phils take the Pads, Mets get Cubs in round 1. If Mets lose to Phils but win the WC, they get the D'Backs in round 1.

5&6) Mets Lose, Phils Win, Pads Win or Lose

Phils NL East Champs, Pads WC, Mets go home

7&8) Mets Lose, Phils Lose, Pads Win or Lose

Phils vs. Mets one game playoff, winner NL East champ, loser goes home,
Pads WC

Gary Cohen summed it up nicely

1 Hit, 2 Walks, 14 Strikeouts, and the best pitching performance by a Met in years.

You've got to love this game

5th inning, Maine's throwing a no-hitter, Mets are piling on runs, and now the first bench clearing brawl I can remember.

Just as a side-note, the Mets announcing crew is so down on Reyes. They wanted him benched for not running out the ground ball (as did 80% of respondents from their cell phone text message poll), then rode him for laughing and joking with Lindstrom while the teams nearly got into a bench clearing brawl. Then, after his gesture did set off a scrum when Olivo charged Reyes, it was interesting to see Reyes meekly vanish into a Cabrera bear-hug while the other 40 guys on the field were ready to rumble. It's like the "don't care too much club" with Reyes and Cabrera. Not the "they pay me whether we win or not" club like Cabrera, and more and more, like Jose.

JT has it covered

When you're down and troubled
and you need a helping hand
and nothing, whoa nothing is going right.

If the sky above you
should turn dark and full of clouds
and that old north wind
should begin to blow

Keep your head together
and call [for #5] out loud
and soon [the playoffs] will be knocking upon your door.

[The Phillies] can be so cold.
They'll hurt you and desert you.
Well they'll take your soul if you let them.
Oh yeah, but don't you let them.

You just call out [Wright's] name
and you know wherever [he is]
[He'll] come [raking], [and start winning] again.

Winter, spring, summer or fall
All you got to do is call
And he'll be there...
You got a friend.

Friday, September 28, 2007

Time for some mean reversion, baby!



HT: NY Times

Time to bleed Orange & Blue



Sometimes being a Mets fan is all milk & honey. 1986, for example. Then there's...

1986 was a sweet year.

Right now is one of those rough patches. This situation is like one of those long hikes over rugged mountains, wearing only flip-flops and carrying a suitcase of beer in front of you until your back goes out, b/c you thought that when your friend said you were going "camping", that meant pulling up to a campsite and drinking beer, and not hiking overland to a remote river location. But I digress.

If my back has to hurt and I have to delay my beer consumption, I will do so. Because I'm a baseball fan. And a Mets fan. And I bleed Orange & Blue. Yesterday, today, and tomorrow, too.

Perez...

...will pitch a gem tonight and win.

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Quotable

"I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally."

-- Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins, on Jan. 23

Well, as of tonight Jimmy Rollins is no longer a liar. It took the worst late-season meltdown in the history of baseball and the worst baseball I've ever seen in my life at any level, but the Mets managed to make an honest man of Rollins. Well played Jimmy, well played.

At least the Mets will always have '06. Oh wait, that didn't work out either.

Oh, and luckily thanks to their 12-6 record against the Mets the Phils are now in the driver's seat.

Braves

Glad to see smoltz and hudson saved their worst for last, and chose these last two games to stink. Thanks for nothing guys...

Feliciano

I have a few points I want to make about the pen, but before getting there, I'd like to review Feliciano's most recent 5 performances:

9/20: @ Florida. Feliciano comes into to start the bottom of the 9th. Metties have just scored 3 in the top to turn a 4-3 deficit into a 7-4 advantage. Sosa's warm in the pen, and everyone's clear that Feliciano is in to pitch to one batter, left-handed Jeremy Hermida. Sosa will be coming in next to face Cabrera. Feliciano starts off wild, missing badly with two balls. Gets a strike to bring the count to 2-1, and then gives up a single up the middle. The Fish have a rally brewing, and go on to score 3 to tie the game, later winning in extras.

9/21: @ Florida. The line pretty much speaks for itself: 2/3 IP, 2 BB, 1 H, 2 ER's. Comes in for the bottom of the 8th. Strikeout. Walk. Walk. Strikeout. Gives up a 2 run double. Pulled for Joe Smith.

9/23: @ Florida. Relieves Maine in the bottom of the 6th, 2 on, nobody out. Game tied 2-2. Gets a K, gives up a single letting an inherited runner score, lifted for Sosa. Leaves game with Mets trailing 3-2.

9/24: vs. Nats. Starts the 7th and pitches an effective inning in a fairly low-pressure spot, with the Mets already down 7-4. Stays in to start the 8th, and commits the cardinal sin for a reliever: issuing a leadoff walk. He's then lifted, and the leadoff walk turns out to be the start of a 3 run rally.

9/26: vs. Nats. Comes into the bottom of the 5th with no outs, and the Mets clinging to a 6-5 lead with two men on. Gives up the GWRBI hit, a double to Willie Mo Pena, scoring both inherited runners and giving the Nats a 7-6 lead which would grow to become a 9-6 win.

That's 5 straight outings from one of our supposed "better" relievers in which he has been ineffective. Right when the Mets are tailspinning and need him most.

4 of the 5 games were losses. In 3 of the 5 appearances, he is involved in the game turning rally (for the other team).

Where are they now?

In assessing the Mets horrific and potentially historic meltdown, look no further than the following four players: Bradford, Oliver, Bannister, and Kazmir.

Let's begin our painful review of recent mind-bogglingly bad deals by the Mets by first looking at the stats each has posted this year:

Bradford (Bal): 3.41 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 18 holds, only 1 HR in 63.1 IP
Oliver (LAA): 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8 holds, 3-1 record
Bannister (KC): 3.87 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 12-9 record
Kazmir (TB): 3.54 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 13-9 record, 229 Ks

Now, let's review why those players are no longer on the Mets. Bradford: for some reason a one-year deal for $3 M was too rich for Omar. Oliver: don't know. Bannister: we got Burgos. Kazmir: we got Zambrano (the wrong one).

Bottom line: if we had kept these young and/or proven talents, we would NOT be in a downward death spiral at this point. I'd guess we'd have 90-92 wins and a comfortable 5-6+ game lead. Instead of retaining these players, the Mets went the much riskier route of sticking with injured and/or old and injury-prone players, including Sanchez, Duque, Glav, Pedro, and I'll throw Mota in the mix b/c I was confident he would stink this season after coming off the juice. Pitching is essential, especially in the playoffs, and we got rid of ours.

To make things worse, we got rid of these players for nothing. Literally we either let them walk and got nothing in return, or got garbage in return. I just don't understand the logic in any of these four cases. And that's not 20/20 hindsight: I didn't understand any of these moves at the time, especially oliver, bradford, and bannister.

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Accountability

There is no way to excuse not holding onto leads of 5-0 in multiple games in the last week, and especially blowing leads to Nats. No way. This team is a mockery of a playoff contender.

Bottom line is Omar needs to reject his absurd position a year ago that the Mets already had all the core players they needed, and they were only looking to add some peripheral role players. He must now admit that this team needs legitimate, established pitching in the worst possible way. If he starts next season with Pedro, Glav, and Duque as "the core", he is making a huge mistake in my opinion. We need young, non-injury-prone proven starting talent, and from what I've seen this year of Pelf and Humber (in AAA), I doubt they will be anything better than #4 guys all next season. I also can't place a lot of faith in Maine and Perez since both have yet to put together a consistent season. Without a top 5 pitcher I don't see this team doing much in the future.

Also, I'm sorry, I don't care what Willie's management style is: he needs to be visibly tearing some ass on this team right now. Even Glav said so the other day, that sometimes a team needs a real chewing to light a fire under them and get going. He needs to call out every pitcher on this team, and force them to prove that they belong in the majors. Even if it doesn't work it's better than sitting around and issuing stupid post-game comments like "We'll get 'em next time", or "This is championship baseball... The champagne will taste that much sweeter." Guess we'll have to ask the Phils if that's true.

Why MLB is also a steaming pile of dung

Earlier this year I happened to notice that MLB has granted TBS exclusive rights to cover a portion of the playoffs for the next 10 years or so. In particular, this year they will cover all LDS games and NLCS, while Fox covers everything else. I didn't really give this much thought, until I just realized the ridiculousness of this situation: MLB is going to let a station that is already affiliated directly with a team, the Braves, cover national playoffs. Worse yet, TBS is using its same crew to call the games! It's bad enough I have to listen to those morons call Mets-Braves games during the regular season as an out-of-market viewer. But to now have to suffer through listening to them in the playoffs is intolerable. If the Braves are in we'll have to hear biased coverage about how great they are, and if they're out we'll have to hear about how they're so much better than whoever is in, and it should've been the Braves.

At least MLB should have insisted that a national, non-affiliated crew call the games.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Tonight's Pile of Dung

Absent some ole fashioned Mets Magic, this game ain't lookin' good. Plenty of goat horns to go around:

1) Glav - With a rookie making his 1st ML start tomorrow, we really needed Glav to go deep into today's game and save the pen (plus keep us in the game). Instead it was batting practice for the NL's worst offense, yet again. 4 HR's and another 4 deep fly balls that mercifully went foul.

2) Reyes - Where to start? Leads of the game with a solo HR with us already down 4, a nice start but obviously not a pressure situation. With a chance to tie the game in his 2nd AB with 2 RISP and 2 outs, gets to a 2-0 count. The opposing pitcher has already walked one hitter on 4 pitches, and seems crazy wild. Jose proceeds to swing at two straight balls, limply hitting a lazy fly to LF. In his 3rd AB, he has a runner on 2nd base with 0 outs. A base hit tacks on a run. Even a productive out gets the runner to 3rd with 1 out. Instead, more wild swings and another lazy pop to CF, no runner advance. The kicker is his mental error fielding in the 7th which would have ended the inning, instead leading to two runs and turning a 3 run deficit to a seemingly insurmountable 5 run deficit.

3) Willie - As Gary Cohen laid out ad nauseum, curious move to bring out Muniz for a second inning. More curious to wait until he's walked to batters to start warming a right-hander. And more curious yet to not bring on the lefty, who was long-since warmed up, to face the lone lefty in Nats lineup.

Two things

These two things must happen for us to have even a remote chance of winning in the playoffs:
1. El Duque must be back and near 100%
2. We must stop giving up massive 2-out rallies. Once you have the 2nd out, man up on the mound, and SHUT IT DOWN.

Without El Duque we have no chance, b/c our starters stink and our bullpen is done. At this point the bullpen collapse has gone on long enough that it's not a "fluke" bad game or week; it's here permanently and going to carry through the rest of the season including playoffs. If we don't get 8 solid innings from our starters giving up no more than 3-4 R, we're done.

Furthermore, if this month-long meltdown isn't proof positive to Omar & Co that they need to acquire legitimate pitching talent in the offseason to shore up starting rotation and pen, I'm not sure what is.

Monday, September 24, 2007

Ups and downs

Mets got the wins this weekend, which is the #1 most important thing down the stretch. That was essential, and they were rewarded by picking up a game on the Phils, cutting magic # to 5. Nice job boys. Also on the positive side: Oliver perez's brilliant gem at an absolute must-have time; Delgado still showing some pop; return of Reyes; and D-Wright.

On the brutally negative side and likely to result in elimination from playoffs in round 1 if it continues:
1. Continued bullpen implosions. There simply is no way to describe the hideousness of blowing a 3 run lead in the 8th twice in 4 games. None. Their month-long meltdown is the worst I have ever witnessed and makes me think the most likely outcome for this team is exit from first round of playoffs.
2. Starting pitching. While we got the Ws this weekend, the starting pitching (minus Perez) was not sharp. Specifically, only getting 5 or 6 innings out of our starters while they give up 3 Rs is not good enough. Especially not in light of point (1).
3. Beltran's re-aggravated tendinitis in both knees. Hopefully he can fight through it for another 5 weeks.

As of right now it looks like we'll draw the Pads in round 1 unfortunately, regardless of whether we or Arizona end up with best record in NL..

Sunday, September 23, 2007

High Hopes


I wish the Mets lead was thiiiis big!

Friday, September 21, 2007

Tonight

Tonight's lineup:

NYM: Martinez (2-0, 1.69 ERA)
FLA: Olsen (9-14, 6.06 ERA)

The Mets lineup will now face Florida's Scott Olsen (9-14, 6.06 ERA), who is 0-5 with a 9.43 ERA in his last six starts. The left-hander gave up six runs and eight hits in two innings of a 13-0 loss to Colorado on Sunday.

If we don't win this matchup, we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Period.

Mets Lose a heartbreaker! Phils Win in a stirring comeback! I'm running out of whiskey!

Leh.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

drink 'em if you got 'em

classic post summary over at the geek:

Eric is busy holding a closed-door meeting with a bottle of whiskey.

Fire willie now. clearly maine is injured, i can think of no other reason to give up 8 runs to nats. So, he should have been benched to get his finger healed instead of making it worse AND screwing our team in the process. Certainly after nats started closing in on our 7 run score willie should have pulled maine.

The Maine Event

Normally I'd bet the house on Mets winning tonight, with Maine shutting Nats down. I'd say that's the most likely outcome, but this from espn.com is a bit troubling:

The blister problem could be the root of a second-half fade by Maine, who is tied with Oliver Perez for the team lead in wins. Maine was 10-4 with a 2.71 ERA in 17 first-half starts, with the Mets going 12-5. After the All-Star break, though, he's 4-5 with a 5.46 ERA and New York has split his 12 starts.

Apparently maine has developed a blister on his finger at some point. This is the same issue that has shut down Beckett for weeks or more at a time in the past..

Willie

From NYPOst: ...said manager Willie Randolph, who insisted he wasn't angry and wasn't questioning anyone's effort.

Of course he's not, willie's never upset with anyone's effort. Too lazy to run down a fly ball? Too lazy to run out an infield hit? Too stupid at the plate to realize that with an 0-2 count and RISP and 2 outs now is not the time to be taking a big cut, but rather time to choke up and make contact? No problem, that's just player's "learning" on the job.

Here's a nugget: According to the Elias Sports Bureau, if the Mets blow what was a seven-game lead with 17 games to go, it would be unprecedented - no team has ever been up seven with 17 to play and not captured the division or league.

The Mets are a disgust right now and a mockery of the 3rd highest payroll in baseball, 1st in NL. They are somewhere between 4th and 7th in the NL in nearly every major batting and pitching category of significance. I strongly suggest they look to pick up some free agents or major trades with AL teams in the offseason to actually get some real talent (particularly pitching) on this team. I would also lay down the law on their hitting and batting approach and say either it changes (and say how), or else they will be riding the bench. Their inability to score runs against garbage, mediocre, over-the-hill or rookie NL pitching is an absolute joke. Except only the Phillies are laughing.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Rollins and other musings

Looks like Jimmy Rollins was close but off a little with his pre-season prediction. He should have said, "I think we are the team for the Mets to beat in the NL East..." Apparently other teams do not share the same problem the Mets have against the Phillies, and particularly against 44-year-old Moyer and his bloated 5+ ERA.

Remember how everyone was celebrating the brilliance of Braves GM Schuerholz? Looks like it hasn't done much for them. In fact, they parted with an impressive top prospect (Saltalamacchia), and next year they'll likely have to part with Andruw Jones to re-sign Teixeira. The mistake they made was in thinking they were only one player away from winning the division. Only their arrogance could truly have believed that - the current Braves are a shell of the team they used to be.

Finally, the red sox continue to bring up dominant rookie after dominant rookie - they must have the best farm system right now hands down. Latest is jacoby ellsbury, their blue-chip top OF prospect. He has been nothing short of spectacular at MLB level: in 20 games he has a .394 avg, .621 slg %, 3 HRs, 14 RBIs, and 5 SBs. That includes 2-2 w/3 RBIs in yesterday's mauling of Yanks. I notice that unlike many Mets, he uses a level swing that (gasp!) actually makes contact, rather than a fugly uppercut going for the fences. Maybe there's something to that after all...

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Post-season pitching roster

I would say emphatically that three players who should not be on the post-season roster are Scho, Sele, and Mota. I'm on the fence with Heilman b/c his numbers are so jekyll and hyde, but in the hopes that the good aaron shows up (and since we don't have a lot of other options), I'd say include him. But if this team has any hope of winning a close, low-scoring game against top notch starting pitchers of SD, LA, or in WS Angels, Indians, or Red Sox, they cannot afford any of the garbage time that those three guys bring. I'm sick of watching close lead after close lead blown by the Three Stooges.

I'd say here is the rotation:
Starting pitchers: Glavine - Duque - Pedro - Maine.
Pen: Perez - Feliciano - Pelfrey - Heilman - Sosa - Wagner - ??.

I assume Lawrence, Collazo and Humber will not make the roster. I also wonder whether duque is more valuable coming out of pen or starting? On most teams I'd say clearly the answer is starting, since he is a rock in playoffs. But given our shaky bullpen, and the fact that most of our starters only go 6 innings thus really increasing the importance of the pen, I think you could make an argument that he could win us more games by coming in as a reliever to shut things down.

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Big (and surprising) news

Apparently, Glavine wants to play in '08.

Now Omar has to figure out if he has one more good year in that left arm.

Kazmir

It would be great if Kazmir filed for arbitration after this season and were let go by D-rays. D-rays whole payroll is only $24 M and top player is Crawford at $4.1 M. Kazmir only gets $424 K now, and clearly in arbitration he would be awarded more than D-rays probably want to pay.

I would love to see Mets re-sign him; he would give them the youth and options they need on their pitching staff. Of course, the Yankees or Red Sox would probably outbid us, so I doubt we'd get him. The main benefit of Kazmir - besides his awesome talent - is that he owns the Red Sox. This is obviously a huge upside for the Yankees and would be worth whatever they can pay, especially given their suspect rotation. But who knows, perhaps we could put together a package that would be more attractive for one reason or another.

Monday, September 10, 2007

J-E-T-S.......Oooofff

Well, I'll take some liberties on this Mets blog to post about the Jetties. I'll keep it brief since thinking about yesterday's debacle for more than a minute will cause temporary insanity and blindness. Looking not just at yesterday's game but at last few seasons as well, I'd say:

1. Not re-signing Pete Kendall was an even more colossal blunder than it appeared in pre-season. This was a "cut off your nose to spite your face" move of epic proportions by Jets ownership. To not simply give him an extra $1M/yr, that he clearly deserved, is coming back to haunt them. The O line sans Kendall simply could do nothing useful yesterday - no pass protection, no run-blocking holes, ...

2. Jets rush D is still atrocious. They couldn't be more porous, and the inability of their LBs to come up and hit the gaps HARD is appalling. I think partly this might be due to the fact that Jets front 7 can't commit to crowding the box or blitzing b/c they are (rightfully) worried that their secondary will get burned, so see point (3).

3. Barrett and Miller must go. They are simply too slow to be of any use, and I'm sick of Barrett always playing the interception only to mistime it and get burned deep. Hopefully Revis pans out and Dyson's injury isn't too serious.

4. Living near Boston with the Sox and Pats is really starting to ride this Mets/Jets fan! Can ONE NY team step up? It's a friggin' embarassment that NY has TWO football and TWO baseball teams, and still can't take down the ONE team for each in New England. In particular the Jets recent 0-7 record against Pats IN THE MEADOWLANDS is absurd. Take some pride and defend your home - at least make it more of a game. Not to mention, nearly all the players the Pats picked up in offseason were free agents - they were available to Jets as well.

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Article on mets

Article on mets in SI here. Basically questions whether they really are best team in NL; touches on most of the issues mentioned on this blog.

I think three changes would improve mets.

1. Bullpen. First, I will continue to state that I think we are paying the price for not re-signing Bradford and Oliver, two guys we could critically use this year since their replacements have come up flat. Beyond that, I think Willie has caused some issues by not being totally consistent in who he uses for what role. Given that the Mets are in the mode of starters should only last 6 innings, they need to put some serious focus on beefing up their bullpen in offseason.

2. Stability in lineup, and stop placing so much blind faith on veterans. Willie's constant shuffling of lineup causes reduced production from the players, in my opinion, although I don't have any stats to back this up. They are doing too much (random) platooning at too many positions, and as a result I don't think it allows those players to get into a comfortable batting rhythm.

3. Hitting approach. Discussed this ad nauseum before so I won't beat it to death here, but I think they need to have certain players focus more on being contact hitters and less on power. They have too many rally-killers due to poor plate approach.

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Bad day, Chipper?

Sounds like the frustration is mounting for braves. Gotta love it.

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Willie

Well, as far as i'm concerned willie's stock continues to plummet. I've taken serious issue with his use of the bullpen this year, as well as continuous shuffling of the line-up. Now, his inability to see that Jose needs a rest is just flat outrageous. Keep playing him Willie, so that he'll continue to go get no hits, no walks, and picked off or caught stealing in the rare instance he does get on base. Already played out tonight..

By the numbers

Wright's numbers by month are ridiculous, check this out:

Month / HR / RBI / AVG / OBP
April / 0 / 6 / .244 / .370
May / 8 / 22 / .294 / .355
June / 6 / 16 / .323 / .411
July / 4 / 22 / .333 / .402
August / 6 / 21 / .394 / .516

His numbers in August are just plain silly. I don't think I've seen a turnaround like that on Mets before.

Saturday, September 01, 2007

Reyes

Please, please, PLEASE rest Reyes at least a game or two. Why doesn't willie see that reyes is clearly drained and has nothing to give. His average is down, and he's now been picked off THREE times in as many games. Give the guy time off NOW.

Maine

Maine deserves enormous credit for summoning the type of performance that was absolutely necessary yesterday. To lose a 6th game in a row, to lose again to the Braves, and to allow the phillies to move within one game probably would have sunk the Mets. So anything less than the performance Maine turned in would have been insufficient.

The same can be said for Perez's performance the other night against the phillies. The Mets offense unfortunately decided to take the week off and thus spoiled his (and Glavine's) gems. I must say that both Perez and Maine were impressive under pressure in playoffs last year; they show a lot of poise for their age and minimal experience (especially true for Maine). If they could improve their consistency (not sure whether this is a mechanical or mental thing), they would be legit #2 and #3 guys..