Some MetsGeek Thoughts on Humber

beerbourineman has the analysis in their "Prospect Geek" series. Here's some of the key quotes:

The PCL is extremely tough on pitchers. In fact, it contains some of the most hitter-friendly environments on the planet...

...[Humber's] overall numbers might not look impressive, but they are, due to the environment. In fact, that 1.24 WHIP led the PCL in 2007.

Conventional wisdom says that pitcher’s who undergo Tommy John surgery can take up to two full seasons to completely return to form (Kerry Wood, Erik Bedard, Dustin McGowan and Chris Capuano are examples of pitchers who follow this pattern). The most common problems that pitchers have to overcome post-TJ are losses of command and stamina. Humber has no problem with control, but those who followed his 2007 season can attest to the fact that he often started well, but wore down toward the end of starts...

The best comp for Humber in 2008 is one that Met fans would be very happy to see fulfilled: Dustin McGowan. McGowan, like Humber, was a fire-balling first round pick who was on the fast track to stardom before Tommy John surgery in 2004. After struggling in 2005 and 2006 to regain the feel of his pitches, McGowan had a breakout season in 2007, posting a 4.08 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, even coming within outs of posting a no-hitter against Colorado. McGowan also has a similar repertoire to Humber’s (or what Humber’s should be in 2008), pounding mid-90s fastballs high in the zone and relying on a sharp 12-to-6 curveball for strikeouts. Humber will be heading into 2008 as a 25-year-old, as McGowan did in 2007. I’ll predict a line of 14 wins, a 4.11 ERA, 167 strikeouts, 62 walks and 21 homers allowed over 184 innings, which would be a nice two-win upgrade over Tom Glavine.

And I don’t have to tell you all how valuable two wins can be.