Buster Olney steals my idea

From his blog:

Santana for Reyes make sense?
posted: Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Johan Santana is willing to waive his no-trade clause if the Twins want to deal him, writes La Velle Neal.

If the Twins look to deal him, the Angels and Dodgers and Diamondbacks might have the best collection of prospects from which to make trades. In the aftermath of the Mets' collapse, here's another thought -- Minnesota could ask for Jose Reyes in a deal, offering Santana, shortstop Jason Bartlett in return for Reyes and outfielder Carlos Gomez and at least one pitcher (Mike Pelfrey?).

Pure speculation, but it makes a lot of sense for both sides to have the conversation -- the Mets would get the kind of staff ace they need, the Twins could benefit in a big way from landing Reyes, who is already locked up to an affordable multiyear deal (he'll make a total of $18.75 million over the next three seasons, and has an $11 million option for 2011). If the team trades Santana and lands the affordable contract of Reyes, Minnesota would have enough money to re-sign Torii Hunter.

Before the Twins get to that point, of course, they should make their best possible pitch to sign Santana, and if he says no and seems headed for free agency, than they should talk to the Dodgers, Angels, Mets and any other interested team. If they did work out a Reyes trade, this is what the top of their lineup could look like next year:

SS Reyes
LF Gomez
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
CF Torii Hunter
DH TBD
3B TBD
2B Alexi Casilla


The Twins would have a team in place that could contend next year, if Francisco Liriano were to come back and be a factor. Joe Mauer soon will learn if he needs hernia surgery. Liriano remains on schedule from elbow surgery, writes Joe Christensen.

This makes sense for the Mets because they would have the young ace pitcher they desperately need -- but the Mets or any other team should insist, before making any deal, that they be given a negotiating window to talk with Santana about his next contract.

Reyes and a lower level prospect for Santana, OK. I don't think I could do Reyes&Pelfrey&Gomez for Santana.

BTW, Bartlett's career stats, from espen:

Batting
Year G/AB Avg/HR/RBI BB/K
2004 8/12 .083/0/1 1/1
2005 74/224 .241/3/16 21/37
2006 99/333 .309/2/32 22/46
2007 140/51 .265/5/43 50/73

He's been with Minny his whole career. He also had 10 SB in '06 and 23 in '07

Santana

It seems increasingly unlikely we will get Santana, I go back to my earlier post that I don't think we have enough chips to trade compared to Yankees and Sox, both of which are also pursuing Santana. That said, the Twins' asking price is possibly too high for both the Yanks and Sox; I'm not sure either team wants to part with as many of their top prospects as the Twins want. However, the Yankees (having already lost Daisuke to Sox) cannot afford to let Santana go to Sox. A rotation of Beckett, Santana, Schilling, Daisuke, and Wakefield all but guarantees WS for several years in a row. (And that assumes Sox have to part with top prospects Buccholz and Lester to get Santana; if not, they are even stronger.) So Yankees will probably have to bite the bullet if they think Sox are really going to get him.

I'd like to see us talk trade with TB for Kazmir.

Johan Santana...

...is not suprisingly disappointed in Twins front office and looking to leave. He's a free agent after '08, but I guarantee he won't be around until then. Especially not with Yankees needing pitching. I would love to see the Mets be one of the teams pursuing him. He's only 28, is one of the most dominant pitchers of his time, and is a strikeout leader. I can only imagine a stable that includes Santana, Pedro, Maine, Perez, Humber/Pelfrey.. I'd even say goodbye to both Humber and Pelfrey for Santana. As good as the upside is for either of them, I haven't heard anyone predicting that they will exceed what Santana has already proven for the last 5 years. I could see Humber, Pelfrey, and Gomez or Gotay for Santana. Whether or not that's attractive enough I guess depends on how much other teams are willing to part with to get Santana, and what Twins really want.

No-han

If this deal for Johan Santana goes through I am done watching baseball.

It is bad enough if he goes to the BlowSox, b/c it guarantees them at least a 5-year dynasty on top of the Pats. But if the Twins really are willing to part with Santana for the pitifully low return of Crisp, Lester, Lowrie, and a 4th bogus player, that is so far beyond absurd it makes Cone for Hearn look like an even pick 'em. I can't even begin to describe how irate I will be if the Sox can land Santana and give up so little in return.

Coco Crisp, while a great CF defensively, offensively STINKS. Lester, while a good prospect, is hardly their top pitching prospect (Buchholz, Papelbon, and recently-traded Gabbard are all higher). And I've never even heard of Lowrie. If Sox can get Santana without having to give up at least one of Buchholz and Ellsbury it is beyond shameful. It would be like the Mets offering a package of Shawn Green, Mike Carp, and Heilman to get Santana. I am so bothered by this report, I can only hope it's a bogus rumor someone floated, maybe by the Twins so the Yankees would up their ante.

Phils 3, Mutts 2

I tuned into this gem right after the Mets took the 2-0 lead, so I saw zero Mets offense. And when I say zero, I mean less than zero.

Durbin comes into the game, relieving the immortal J.A. Happ (who, BTW, blanked us through 4), and gets 7 in a row, with 6 K's. Madsen pitches a scoreless 8th. Lidge gets 'em 1-2-3 in the 9th on a grand total of 5 pitches. 5 effin pitches. With some legendeary efforts like Church popping to the pitching mound and Marlon Anderson rolling a swinging bunt to Howard standing on the bag at first.

So the O was just pitiful.

Then there was the D.

I witnessed the Phillies rally in the 6th. A couple of clutch rbi singles for Howard (through the hole vacated by the shift) and Burrell, but let's be honest--the inning only happened because Chris Aguila (who? who-the-ef is this guy that Manuel started in LF against the Phillies in a crucial game?) decided not to take two steps in to field Werth's lazy liner to left. Nope. Playing it on a hop was effort enough, thank you very much. And not for nothing, but the same scrub should have been able to make the play close on Utley (the tying run) at the plate--he fielded the ball before Utley had even gotten to third. And Utley scored easily.

Well, at least I saw Santana pitch a dominant game. No joke. Aside for a couple of punch singles that ignited a rally, he was retiring everyone and making them look silly. Before that 6th inning rally, he had a 1-2-3 fifth. He came back from that 6th inning rally to retire the next 7. He pitched 8 inning, 2 run ball, in only 95 pitches. That's under 12 pitches an inning, and that's despite throwing well over 20 in the 6th.

Which leads me to the big WTF question of the night. Why not pitch Santana in the 9th? He didn't come to bat in the 8th, wasn't pinch hit for. At 12 pitches per inning, what was Manuel scared Johan's pitch count would get up to 107? Santana had retired 7 in a row when they pulled him, and had been absolutely dominant all game but for one inning. Let your ace do his job, and give him a chance to win the game.

Instead, we come back with Duaner, who pukes it up immediately. And BTW, this ain't Monday Morning QB'ing. I was annoyed the minute I saw Sanchez on the mound, as was everyone else--SNY ran a text message poll if pulling Santana was the right move: 84% said no.

Well, it's a darn good thing we got rid Randolph. Now we get to have our cake and eat it too: the .471 baseball we crave, AND a "gangsta" running the club.

Jose

As I think about it more, I am leaning strongly against trading Reyes (unless some ridiculously obvious trade presented itself, i.e. Reyes for Santana straight up). I think the Mets should continue to build around the trio of Reyes-Wright-Beltran, but they need to really sit down with Reyes in a few weeks and have a serious conversation. First, they need to understand what happened in the 2nd half of the season. Was his dropoff in production due solely to fatigue (as people speculated about Wright last year after HR derby)? If so, then they need to adjust next year so that he's not playing 160 games and attempting 99 SBs. If it wasn't due to fatigue, then it's due to approach and plate discipline. On the positive side his SOs have held steady at ~80 for 3 years, while his BBs have increased. However, he had way too many fly ball outs. I think they need to adjust his swing and approach (this is true for a lot of the team, but especially Reyes). They need to set a target for Reyes of .310+ BA and .390+ OBP. All he should be thinking about all season is how to maintain those #s. Forget the HRs and 3Bs, focus on hitting singles and if possible stretching them into doubles. It probably wasn't helpful that at the end of '06 Willie made a comment that he could see Reyes being a 20-25 HR guy. I'm sure that enters his thinking and swinging. In any case, if they lay down the law with him and force him to focus on BA and OBP, he will be dominant.

I would say do what you need to do to pick up Santana, then have Santana / Pedro / Maine / Perez / Pelfrey. Put Duque in pen, try to pick up at least two other arms to replace Sele / Scho / Mota / Sosa or whoever is out. Keep Alou, get rid of Green and start Milledge in right. Endy and Gomez are subs, although Gomez could really use another full season at AAA IMO. Dump PLD, sign Posada and give Castro more PT. Whether or not you keep Castillo depends on what terms he wants; if too rich then dump him, and start Gotay for now. I would think though that if Castillo can continue to hit .290+ and give you solid defense, he's worth it. An infield of Wright, Gotay, and Delgado is probably too much of a defensive liability (unless gotay improves), you'll need to find a better 2B and 1B. Not sure where you do that though, since Teixeira isn't FA until '08 and will be resigned by Braves this year anyway.

If I had to guess though, no way we get Santana. We just don't have enough young proven prospects to make it happen. Twins will probably want Pelfrey, Humber, and Milledge / Gomez in return, at least. The problem is one of numbers: with practically no one good available as FA, we can't afford to give trade away all those players we are banking on to be starters next year. I don't think we can keep all of Green, Delgado, Alou, Duque, and Glavine. It's just a re-tread of the same team from the last two years, and they are not getting any younger or less likely to be injured. But who do you replace them with, if we have to trade Milledge, Pelfrey, etc.?

A nice win. Santana must feel cursed.

From the AP via ESPN:

Santana, just 9-7 in his first season with the Mets, left with a 3-1 lead in the eighth. It was the sixth time in 24 starts this season that Santana came out with a lead and failed to win, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, and in six of those the collapse came in the ninth inning. He has seven no-decisions, and in six of those allowed three runs or fewer.

What?! Friggin ridculous.

Anyway, D Wright redeemed after his atrocious outing yesterday.

And the ribs in today's game came from Murphy, Nick Evans, and Wright. Home grown run production, folks!

Santana still in play

While it doesn't sound great, at least the Mets are still in the hunt. Omar must've made his best offer and hopes that no one else will pony up the players + $ needed to land Johann. If it turns into a buyer's market, maybe the Twins reconsider the Mets offer. From Buster Olney's blog:

The Twins continue to stay in contact with the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets and Mariners about a Johan Santana deal, but those talks have moved so slowly it's now possible a trade may not get done "for several weeks," a source with knowledge of the discussions told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.

The most surprising aspect of those talks to some baseball people is that the Mets remain in the mix. It may be because the Twins would like to move Santana to the National League if possible. But while the Mets have made a four-for-one offer built around center fielder Carlos Gomez, indications are that the teams remain far apart.

A Glorious Mets Moment

Watching the 4th inning of tonight's game was like watching countless Mets games this year: just inexplicable. What leads to such little league type performances? Is it a lack of discipline? A lack of concentration? A lack of effort? Plain bad luck?

I'm not sure of the answer, but here's what happened. You had Santana inexplicably walk the opposing pitcher (who had never had a ML hit) on 4 pitches. You had F Mart spaz out, chunk a piece of turf out of the ground, and literally face plant as a harmless fly ball landed next to him for 2nd and 3rd. And then, after the pitching coach, goofy Dan Warthen got tossed (!) and jawed angrily with the plate umpire, you had (1) a double that cleared the bases, (2) Santos failing to catch Wright's replay to the plate (which was there in plenty of time to nail the 3rd runner), (3) Braun overrunning 3rd base leaving him a dead duck when Santana backed up Wright's throw to the plate, but Santana air-mailing the throw to third, and (4) Cora failing to stop the overthrow despite seemingly being well positioned to back up in short left, allowing the hitter (and 4th run) to come all the way around to score on the same play. If it wasn't tragic, it would have been hysterical. Or maybe it's the other way around.

Anywho, the next inning, that queer guy who is the on-field reporter for SNY starts giving some line about "the Mets are scraping to battle back here in Milwaukee." All of a sudden, I was transported to another time and place. It was 1982 again. Or maybe 1993. Anyway, it was like so many Met broadcasts I have heard before. Where a seemingly genuine announcer, apparently disconnected from the players smoking in the dugout or playing cards in the clubhouse, intones about the Mets "battling back" from a deficit.

All the while, every viewer knows a few things: (1) no, they're not; (2) they couldn't even if they were trying; (3) they've lost so many games in a row that it really wouldn't matter if they managed to pull a rabbit out of the hat and come back.

There's a profound sense of peace and comfort when you've come to that point. It's like--what's the right word--acceptance? Kind of like taking a few hits on the oxygen mask with Tyler Durden on the way down from 30,000 feet.

Enjoy it while you can

"That's what I do for a living," Santana said. "I enjoy pitching, regardless of who we're facing or when you're pitching. I think that's what I love. I'm always trying to do my best every time out there. Tonight was a great game, a great atmosphere."

Watching a master work. You don't get the chance too often. And the master has passion for his art. You can see it.

From Newsday:

Santana surrendered only two hits and trimmed his ERA from 1.10 to 0.91, the third lowest in Mets history through the first six starts of the season. David Cone had a 0.76 ERA in 1988 and Nolan Ryan a 0.77 in 1971.

METS LAND SANTANA!!!!

This, I think the saying goes, changes everything.

Humber, Mulvey, Guerra and Carlos Gomez for Santana. We still have to work out the $ with Johan, and the years.

We hold onto F Mart and Pelfrey.

I love it.

BTW, not much to say other than that this is mad redemption for Omar. I mocked him after we traded Lastings and then didn't have the pieces to get Johan. Except we did have the pieces, and apparently Omar guessed right. Good on him.

Let's make it official-

Willie's going to be back next year. More coverage of the annoucement here.

As disappointed as I am with how the season ended--and the manager is not free of blame--I feel in my gut like this is the right move.

Kevin Kernan of the Post made the case for retaining Willie:

OMAR Minaya made his first good decision of the Mets much too early offseason yesterday by keeping Willie Randolph as manager.

If Minaya had fired Randolph, it would have been another loss for the team that has turned losing into an art form. Plus, with Randolph gone, the bull's-eye would have shifted from Randolph's back squarely onto Minaya's. No GM wants that to be the case.

This way, if the Mets stagger out of the gate next year, Minaya still has someone to blame and Randolph will be history. But as George Steinbrenner might say in a statement: "It's on Omar and Willie."

Over the last 17 games of the season Randolph was one of the few Mets who appeared to care and when he met with his team behind closed doors after that last terrible loss, Randolph cried because of the golden opportunity that slipped away from the Mets.

If only his Mets cared as much about winning as he did.

That said, Randolph, like all the Mets has to make changes. His No. 1 challenge is to make the Mets care more about winning. He has to make them understand there are consequences for their childless actions. They need to worry more about the game than their dance routines...

...It wouldn't hurt either if Minaya helped Randolph out by acquiring the ace the Mets desperately need. That player is sitting out there in Minnesota.

If you want to make Willie Randolph a better manager Omar, trade for Johan Santana. That would also make you a better GM.

Santana said he would waive his no-trade clause for the right deal so this should be the Mets No. 1 priority. Not looking for scapegoats when the reason they failed is simple: the players choked away the season.

Essentially the Mets did not adhere to the most basic premise of pro sports: Don't fear your opponent, but respect him. The Mets thought they were so much better than everyone else.

What Omar has to do now that he has retained Randolph is get out of his way and let Willie run the club. Get out of the way and get players. There has to be fewer visits to the clubhouse from Omar and his top aides.

Minaya is a nice guy who tends to be too friendly with his players. He has to draw the line. He's management. They're players. He has to remember that and cannot undermine Randolph's authority by being everybody's buddy. If Randolph gets all over Jose Reyes, the GM has to back him up. Players like Lastings Milledge should not come up to the majors thinking they can get away with antics that would not be tolerated in other organizations.

But they do get away with them. The organization has to believe in tough love.

The challenge will be difficult for Minaya, Randolph and the Mets. Because now the only question that matters is this one and it will be asked every day: What did you do today as a team, as an organization, as a GM, as a manager, as a player to prevent another epic collapse?

No one will care about anything else. The Mets don't need scapegoats right now, they need to change their way of thinking and bring in a No. 1 pitcher.

Problem solved.

Food For Thought

From MLB Trade Rumors:

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets
By Tim Dierkes [September 17 at 11:00pm CST]
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Mets. Their commitments for 2010:

C - Omir Santos - $400K
C - Josh Thole - $400K
1B - Daniel Murphy - $401K
2B - Luis Castillo - $6MM
SS - Jose Reyes - $9MM
3B - David Wright - $10MM
IF - Anderson Hernandez - $400K
LF - Angel Pagan - $575K+
CF - Carlos Beltran - $18.5MM
RF - Jeff Francoeur - $3.375MM+
OF - Cory Sullivan - $600K+
OF - Jeremy Reed - $925K+
1B/LF - Nick Evans - $403K or OF - Fernando Martinez - $400K

SP - Johan Santana - $21MM
SP - John Maine - $2.6MM+
SP - Mike Pelfrey - $1.3125MM
SP - Oliver Perez - $12MM
SP - Jon Niese - $400K

Other candidates: Fernando Nieve - $414K, Tim Redding - $2.25MM+

RP - Francisco Rodriguez - $11.5MM
RP - Pedro Feliciano - $1.6125MM+
RP - Sean Green - $471K+
RP - Pat Misch - $402K
RP - Bobby Parnell - $400K
RP - Brian Stokes - $410K
RP - Carlos Muniz - $402K

Other commitments: J.J. Putz - $1MM buyout

Non-tender candidates: Redding, Maine, Nelson Figueroa

That puts the Mets at about $105MM, plus arbitration raises to Pagan, Francoeur, Sullivan, Reed, Maine, Feliciano, Green, and Redding (some of whom will likely be non-tendered). The Mets are in the $110MM ballpark after entering the '09 season with a $149.4MM payroll. Omar Minaya should have $35-40MM to patch his team's many holes.

The Mets have a strong core of superstars, and their collective health almost has to improve in 2010. I don't see the logic behind trading Reyes, Wright, Beltran, or Santana.

The Mets need a catcher, first baseman, and corner outfielder. They may be competing with the Braves for certain first base and left field candidates. But the Mets also need at least one solid starting pitcher as well as bullpen help.

The catching market is weak, but pairing someone like Gregg Zaun with Thole makes sense. First base presents more options. Who's a bigger health risk - Carlos Delgado at 38 or Nick Johnson at 31? Johnson's .428 OBP is hard to ignore.

The market is flush with left fielders. With so many needs, I have a hard time seeing Minaya take a run at Manny Ramirez, Matt Holliday, or Jason Bay. Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, and Jermaine Dye are more reasonable targets. With Castillo, Johnson, Wright, Beltran, and Abreu, the Mets would potentially have five .400 OBP players. Zaun (assuming the Rays let him go), Johnson, and Abreu could be signed for less than $25MM in 2010 salaries.

With the remaining money I'd attempt to lure Randy Wolf from the West Coast while also pursuing Erik Bedard, Brad Penny, Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, or Ben Sheets for a one-year deal. Admittedly there wouldn't be much left to spend on relievers, but decent arms can be found for a million or two.

Certainly the Mets could use top free agents like Holliday and John Lackey. However, the available money would be better used to acquire four or five sensible free agents. Let's hear your recommendations in the comments.

Santana

I'd say it's better than even odds that Santana is hiding an injury. His per-game performance pre-May 11 and post-May 11 are remarkably bifurcated. There was no gradual drop in performance: he went from being consistently out-of-his-mind dominant to consistently about average.

Knowing that he pitched the final game on 3 days rest while injured last year tells me a lot about his mental drive. Incredibly his pitching ability while injured is still better than any of our other starters healthy. But I'd bet he's injured now; I'm not buying his "it's my mechanics" story. Hopefully it's nothing major, because this team with anything less than a dominant Johan is a non-starter to compete.

How will the chips fall?

Tonight's game at Shea is very interesting on many levels. You have two teams that have drastically underperformed; both have new managers as of last week; and both have their aces on the mound tonight. It's also Manuel's first home game as the new manager, and it will be interesting to see how the crowd responds to him.

Here are some interesting points to consider. In favor of the Mets: Santana is 6-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his last eight starts versus the Mariners, and 7-1 with a 2.92 ERA in nine starts and seven relief appearances all-time against them. Seattle has the worst record in MLB, and the 3rd worst offense (in terms of runs) in MLB (worst in AL).

On the other hand, New York, though, has lost each of Santana's last three starts. The left-hander is 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA in two interleague starts this season.

Seattle will counter with Felix Hernandez (6-5, 2.87), who has posted a 0.95 ERA and a .184 opponents batting average en route to winning four straight starts. We've never faced Hernandez and the Mets generally stink against pitchers they've never seen before - even horrific ones - so this doesn't bode well.

It will indeed be interesting to see how it plays out. Now would be a great time for Johan to have his first truly dominant performance of the season, a complete game with under 2 runs.

Fredo reads the MetsGeek open thread

so you don't have to. And there were some gems. First, right as duaner was melting down in the 9th:

Comment posted by 7up17togo on July 22, 2008 at 9:50 pm (#775915)
Monday morning quarterbacking but why was Santana taken out?

Comment posted by wallace on July 22, 2008 at 9:50 pm (#775916)
Manuel needs to pull DS here. This is ridiculous.

Comment posted by Dep on July 22, 2008 at 9:50 pm (#775917)
i’m taking bong hits for this game right now n smitty

After So Taguchi's double off of Feliciano:

Comment posted by Mak on July 22, 2008 at 10:00 pm (#775983)

epic fail.

I hope Santana resigns tomorrow after taking a gigantic dump in the bullpen.

In the game's aftermath:

Comment posted by 7up17togo on July 22, 2008 at 10:37 pm (#776225)

“Let him loose Louie”, is “still learning” as a 3rd base coach. Let him learn in Binghamton

No joke. Way to get Chavez thrown out at the plate *twice* last night. But we were up by 3 in the 9th, so those runs couldn't have been important.

Comment posted by Bob Loblaw on July 22, 2008 at 10:38 pm (#776230)

OMG THIS IS WORSE THAN A TESTICULAR RUPTURE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TESTICULAR RUPTURE!

Comment posted by Mak on July 22, 2008 at 10:40 pm (#776241)

How about a Kaz Matsui style Anal Fissure?

I wasn’t gonna drink tonight, but I feel like shotgunning a 12-pack after witnessing that bs in the 9th.

TO THE BODEGA.

Comment posted by bcuster on July 22, 2008 at 10:40 pm (#776238)

we’ll we have gone ahead and given the philthes the confidence boost they needed. as “ronnie” would have said; waggerdoodles should have manned up & charged out there.

he is a sissy boy llama farker.

Llamas? Really?

Comment posted by rye jones on July 22, 2008 at 10:04 pm (#776018)

I want to die.

Finally, from the, "it's never as bad as it seems" camp:

Comment posted by Dep on July 22, 2008 at 10:53 pm (#776283)

i just ate so much food and smoked so much pot lol

i bring good news geeks!

Mets-phils

Big inning for santana here, bottom of the 4th. We just tacked on another 2 runs in top 4th, and santana now faces the heart of philthies order. Hopefully he's treating this like a playoff game and we'll see what he can do. I was certainly disappointed with his effort in the bottom of the 1st after we jumped out to a quick lead.

Not a good start, utley tagged a double into the corner... Let's see if he can set down the big man... indeed, got him to fly out to deep left. Very close to a 2-run jobbie though.

Pelfrey on the Rotation

According to the Post: If the season started today, the rotation would likely be Santana, Pelfrey, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Fernando Nieve.

“Guys got hurt. I had a bad year, but guys are healthy now and I’m going to bounce back and have a good year. It’s amazing to me how big of a question there is about the rotation [by fans]. I hear about it and I just laugh.”

It's amazing that the fans have questions? Really? After Santana you've got Pelf, whose best season was 3.72 ERA with 110 Ks and a 13-11 record. All other seasons have been ERA > 5. Then you've got Maine, who never seems to be able to physically make it through a full season, and loses focus starting in the 4th inning of every game. As for Perez I can't even comment. Last you've got Niese, an interesting prospect but completely unproven.

Why would the fans have confidence in this rotation?

Let's get productive!

OK, it's been the better part of a month since SHK graced us with the eternal optimism of his last post.

Let's kick this into gear here on the precipice of Christmas and the looming silhouette of the new year on the horizon.

What Christmas presents (and/or miracles) do we want to see from Omar under the tree?

My two cents (which was once worth $0.37, by the way):

Offer Ben Sheets a big contract that is incentive-laden. I've got no problem throwing him $12M but he's gotta earn it--let's say full value vests with 200 IP, 30 starts...if he can do that you can reasonably expect 17-18 wins and an ERA in the low 3's. We could also try the same with Eric Bedard but at much lower costs--after all, the guy is fresh off surgery and hasn't done any throwing yet (unlike Sheets, who has been rehabbing for the last 6-8 months).

Try to trade for Gil Meche. Rumor has it that this is in the works but I can't find anything confirming talks, much less progress. Carlos Zambrano is another option but the Cubs seem less likely to deal (especially now that they're unburdened by Bradley's contract--although they're now saddled with Carlos Silva's fat deal).

Give Matt Holliday a big offer. If Bay wants to sit on his hands and play the waiting game, screw him. Looks like the Cards are the only solid suitor for Holliday right now. If Omar can lure him, fine. If he drives up Holliday's price for the Cards, hooray. If it lights a fire under Bay's ass (and his agent's as well, who may have priced his prize client out of the best offer he was going to get), terrific. Seems like a no-lose to me.

And pull the same move on Molina--sucka thinks he's still worth 3 yrs at $6-7M a pop? Riiiight. Guy's OBP is lower than his weight and he is clearly the inferior of the 3 brothers behind the plate at this point. Give Rod Barajas a call (let's avoid the Torreabla drama again, please) and force someone's hand. This waiting crap is getting old. BE PROACTIVE, B-E PROACTIVE!!!

And the 1B problem can go down one of 2 ways--give Delgado a low-base, high-incentive deal to come back for one more year or go get LaRoche.

Finally, let's do anything with Luis Castillo other than ink him in as our starting 2B. Whatever must be done, go for it. Then get Orlando Hudson before he signs with the Nationals, too. BTW, where the hell are the Nats suddenly coming up with all this coin?

And in the Christmas miracle department, let's trade whatever we need to do get Carl Crawford. This solves a lot of the previously stated issues but I don't think we have anything to really tempt the Rays. Oh, well--the guy IS a FA next season...

With my plan, we could be looking at:

SS Reyes
2B Hudson
3B Wright
CF Beltran
LF Bay/Holliday
1B Delgado/LaRoche
RF Francoeur
C Barajas/Thole/Santos/Coste/Blanco/whatever

Santana
Meche
Sheets
Pelfrey
Maine (who might be needed to get Meche so then Perez--ouch)

Taking stock of the Mets, part 2

The Wilpons are going to have to do some hard thinking about the realities of this team, and decide whether Omar, Willie, or the players are mostly to blame. IMO, unless you are talking about a situation where you have a team with just one bad player or bad apple (e.g., Nomar, Bonilla, etc.), then it has to fall on the GM or manager. Either the GM assembled a team with overrated talent, declining talent, or poor attitudes, or the manager has failed to properly utilize and motivate that talent. When an entire team underperforms, I have to look squarely at management.

So for the Mets, which is it? Is it mostly on Omar or Willie? Not entirely clear-cut, IMO. Take Omar first. He has certainly made some very impressive moves as GM, including the trades for Santana and Church. I'll even throw bringing Pedro over here in there, since he was solid in '06. On the negative side, however, Omar has shown a propensity to pursue declining talent on the downside of their careers (Delgado, Green, Valentin, Castillo, Alou, El Duque, ...) Furthermore, I found his unwillingness to re-sign Bradford and Oliver as two of the most bone-headed moves of all time. Both of those players continue to perform very well to this day, and quite likely would have been the difference between a collapse in '07 and playoffs.

In addition, I think it's important to keep in mind that Omar hasn't exactly had the toughest job in the world: he has essentially been given the largest budget of any NL team over the past 4 years. It's not like he's been asked to assemble a WS-class team with the budget of the Rays or Marlins. Omar also apparently doesn't seem to understand the need for a few vocal leaders in the clubhouse, since he has assembled a team of veterans who do not want to lead.

On the other hand, I think you can easily make a case that despite all the injuries, there is no reason this team should not be in 1st place in NL East. The core of the team - Reyes, Wright, and Beltran - have all remained healthy. The collapse at the end of '07 was inexcusable, due in large part IMO to Willie's overuse of bullpen during regular season. I also think Willie needs to take a more pro-active stance in developing Reyes, whose talent is still very raw. I think Willie's unwillingness to show emotion during a game and argue with umps is also a problem. I especially don't like the way he manages the bullpen, pulls starters early, and juggles the lineup.

At the end of the day, I'm not sure whether more of the blame lies with Willie or Omar, but I can say that the present team is not responding well to Willie. I can also say that even if Wilpon replaces Willie, he ought to put Omar on notice that his job is also on the hot seat, and he needs to re-consider the type of players the team really needs going forward.