First, let's give credit where credit's due. Perez pitched an absolute gem of a game in a tough situation. The Mets spirits had to be down entering that game last night after losing Pedro, and next up we play Los Bravos this weekend. So last night's game was a must win, and Perez locked it up.
What I find funny is that every article you read about him starts out with "Perez, who is likely in his final year with the Mets..." Now, do I think he is going to ever shake his jekyll/hyde routine and become stable enough to be legit #1 (when he's on, he easily has legit #1 stuff)? No, BUT I don't see how in the world the Mets could not keep him, at any price. If you don't re-sign him, you are looking at a rotation of: Johan, Pedro (assuming he re-signs and can even pitch), Maine, Pelfrey (??), and Duque (this has to be his last year). We have no exciting prospects, no abundance of good players at one position to use as trade bait, and we'd pay top dollar to buy a pitcher on the FA market anyway.
Given the age/injuries and poor quality of our rotation without Perez, what choice do the Mets have but to re-sign him, at almost any price?
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Why does it seem so impossible to re-sign Perez? Granted, we also have to lock up Maine since he's restricted after this year, but we're gonna free up a little over $40 mil going into a new park that should be sold out every night.
So we take a chunk of cash and sign Perez and Maine, let Pedro, Duque, and Delgado go and you still should have a few bucks to pursue a 1st baseman. Frankly, I'd rather go with speed and defense in the outfield than worring about getting a big stick in left...
Well, it's tough to say what you do with Perez. If he takes a step forward, and starts pitching deep into games, then you have your playoff "Big 3" on board for the next few years in Santana/Maine/Perez. So despite the wailing and gnashing of teeth when Pedro went down, I don't think you need Pedro to go deep in the playoffs this year. If Perez continues to step forward.
That said, if it continues to be one step forward, one step back, can you really justify making him one of the top 10 paid pitchers in the NL? He's been hurt a lot, is not an innings eater, and his elbow is a question mark. If he goes through two month stretches where he has trouble getting to the 6th inning, that really burns your pen, even if he manages to keep you in those games.
I think Omar's doing the right thing by making Perez earn it this year. He'll need to stay focused all season to earn his contract, and that bodes really well for the Mets, especially with Pedro's injury. If Perez doesn't show improvement in mechanics and focus, he'll still get paid, but someone else will do the paying.
I think this is a conversation best left shelved till October or November. Otherwise, we're just going to sound like Benigno. Every great performance, and we're ready to open the vault. Every 5 IP, 4 R, 5 H, 5 BB performance, and we're ready to throw him to the wolves.
I'm sort of basing my thoughts on the fact that he will have a good season (at least on par with last year). If he falls apart this year, we have no use for him anyway, let him walk.
But, if he is at least as good as last year, or better, no question that with the lack of quality pitching on the market he will get an overpriced contract. However, I just don't see what option we have but to retain him, assuming he is good this year.
Was he good enough last year to command a top-10 salary? The ERA was great, but he only averaged 6.1 IP per start, and missed 5 or 6 starts, IIRC.
Coming down the stretch in Sept, when the team needed someone--anyone--to step up and staunch the bleeding, here were Ollie's final 3 starts:
DATE OPP RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO
9/16 PHI L 4.2IP/6H/5R/2ER/6BB/6K
9/22 @FLA W 8.0IP/6H/2R/1ER/0BB/8K
9/28 FLA ND (team lost) 3.2IP/6H/6R/6ER/2BB/4K
Obviously, the 9/22 start was a great start against a team that long since mailed-it-in. The 9/16 start against Philly, in a series when we could have closed the door, was a disaster. Sure, the fielding hurt him. But he couldn't summon up ace-like. Nope, 6 hits, 6 walks, in 4.2IP. In one of the 5 or 6 most important games the Mets played last year. That's atrocious.
And then, when the team-wide implosion was reaching its climax, and Ollie had one more chance to prove his mettle, he spit-the-bit with one of the worst meltdowns of his season. 6 hits, 2 walks, and 6 earned runs, and he couldn't make it out of the 4th. Agains the lowly Fish, who were already scheduling their tee-times.
Now, I still like Ollie, and his stuff can be intimidating. But if I'm Omar, I can't justify plunking down the kind of money he's asking for until he shows me he can get it done when the chips are down. Those are the guys you pay. If Ollie can't beat the Fish with the season on the line, can I really lock him in place as one of three guys I'm counting on to win the big game against the Yanks or BoSox?
Make him prove it first, then pay him.
perseverance and overcome it.
I agree on his inconsistency, that's why I still think he's no better than a #3 or #4. Until he shows consistency, he can't be any higher. He has certainly shown an ability to step up big in tough spots though (see '06 playoffs).
That said, suppose he has roughly a similar year as in '07. Presumably that will be enough to result in his commanding a higher-than-justified salary. My question is, if Omar lets him walk, what then? We have no options as far as I can see. I have to assume Pedro and Duque are effectively done after this year, and I'm assuming no growth for Pelfrey this year. We have no one to trade, and if you try to sign a free agent you'll pay anyway.
Omar is stuck because we overpaid for Delgado and Pedro (and perhaps even Johan, to some extent). I just can't see going into a new stadium in '09 with a roster of: Johan / Maine / Pelfrey / ???
The Bannister trade is the one that really chaps me to this day, and will continue to do so.
Omar will have money available next season--Delgado and pedro will be gone, as will Alou and Duque.
So if we're so concerned about holes in the roster, we fill them.
Plus, we'll have plenty of duckets coming from the new park.
And let's focus on the next 159 games (plus playoffs) first...
Hmm, not sure how much money he'll have left after we drop a fortune on Teixeira...
You know we have to do it too.
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