1. Someone (HoJo) better talk to Reyes and tell him to start taking more pitches. He only has 3 BBs and an OBP of .320 that is not getting it done as a leadoff hitter.
2. Putting Castillo in the 2 slot is Willie at his stubborn worst. It doesn't protect Jose, and it kills rallies. My suggested order: Reyes, Church (contact hitter), Wright, Beltran, Pagan (until Alou is back), Delgado, Schneider, Castillo. I completely disagree with the philosophy of sprinkling your bad hitters throughout the lineup, I think it gives the opposing pitcher too much opportunity to pitch around good hitters and focus on getting the bad ones out. I'd rather put a lot of pressure on a pitcher with our 1-5 slots, and hope that if we start a rally the pitcher will become unnerved, possibly improving the chances for the 6-8 slots.
3. The Mets cannot carry this much deadwood on their roster all season. Having Alou back should be great, but it doesn't help as much because it forces us to remove one of the few hot bats on the team. If at least one of Beltran, Delgado, and Castillo doesn't turn it around, the Mets are going to have to either promote Carp or start shopping for a legit contact hitter who can provide .300+. These inning-ending GIDPs are killing us.
4. Some of the bullpen is either: (a) already worn down, (b) still carrying the baggage of '07 into '08, or (c) just not that good. Take your pick, but in any case it is going to be an unavoidable problem when we face good teams down the stretch and in the playoffs.
5 comments:
1. Reyes is a big-ticket player, who commands a top tier salary, is a star, and can play for whatever team he wants at whatever salary he wants when his contract expires.
This is NOT a coaching issue. Rickey Henderson, Rick Downs, Howard Johnson, and Willie Randolph have been repeatedly preaching patience to Jose for YEARS now.
Jose wants to play the way Jose wants to play, and he's not accountable to anyone, and won't ever be, and he knows it. And plus, he simply doesn't have a good eye for picking up pitch location out of the hand, so I'm not conviniced that discipline/patience would matter that much anyway.
Jose's a great player, but what you see is what you're going to get from his this year. If he improves in OBP, it will be a slow, steady climb year-over-year as it has been. I doubt he's taking any great leaps forward.
2. Castillo looks great in the 8 hole.
3. I'm not worried about Beltran. Delgado and Castillo are dead weight right now, and may continue to be dead weight all year.
Bad news is, with the amount that they're being paid, no one else is picking up their contracts, and I think we're going to sink or swim with them.
Sure hope the front half of the lineup can score a lot or runs...
4. Heilman is (c) not that good. Never has been. His live arm is neutralized by his inability to locate his fastball, and when he gets behind, he just gives in and tries to challenge middle-middle, either b/c he trusts his stuff too much, or he doesn't think he can hit the target and wants margin of error. Either way, we know how middle-middle works out against big league hitters. Rain clouds have been paying the price for years now.
That said, the rest of the pen has been pretty solid, and I actually think they are pretty good. Willie over uses Feliciano. If he kept his to situational lefty-lefty matchups he'd be dominant. The Scho has been decent for a 6th or 7th inning situational guy, and Smith and Sanchez have been great.
And you can't be better than Wagner has been this year. He's been so good, I don't even know what to make of it. Is he juicing? Scuffing? Is the windup that big a deal?
Heilman and Sosa are definitely not looking good. I agree on Feliciano, he (and Bradford) were always 1-2 out guys, not full innings eaters. I'm glad to see Sanchez basically pick up where he left off in '06, and Smith also looks very sharp.
As for Wags, I see two things. First, he usually is better at the start of the season than near the end. I think he gets worn down and that's when you get a lot of his blown saves. Second, perhaps more importantly, one big difference I see between this year and last year is that this year his fastball is consistently hitting the zone. Last year he was low on a lot of his fastballs, resulting in a lot of walks or hitters waiting for him to elevate that one mistake they could jump on. By elevating his base pitch a few inches he is now consistently in the bottom of the strike zone, as opposed to below it.
I sure hope beltran turns it around, because I am 95% positive Delgado is at the end of his career and at best he'll put up .250-.260 this year. I don't expect much from Castillo either, so without Beltran we are in big trouble.
As for Jose, until his Aug/Sep slump last year, his year-over-year #s were very positive that he was increasing BA, increasing OBP, increasing BBs and decreasing SOs. However, that trend is not continuing this year, which is what I find troubling. But, if he's unwilling/unable to get much better plate discipline, I agree there's not much you can do. In that case, this team has to find a way to not be so beholden to him. It's like the rest of the team forgets they can hit and start rallies even if he makes an out. Everyone looks like night of the walking dead going to the plate if he gets out.
For that matter, this team also continues to show no heart and focus with 2 outs in an inning. I can't tell you how many runs the Sox score with 2 outs and no one on, late in the game. They never treat an inning as over until it really is over. If the Mets continue to lay their bats down once they have 2 outs and no one on, they are giving up 1/3 of their outs each game, which they cannot afford to do. They have to realize that even if they only get 1 run once a game in a 2 out, no one on situation, that one run is going to account for at least 5-10 more wins this year. And that's definitely where coaching and top-down team culture/attitude come into play, and I put that squarely on Willie and HoJo.
Just checking some stat splits. RISP w/ 2 outs.
Guys getting it done:
Reyes 2-for-3, 3 RBI
Wright 3-for-10, 6 RBI
Church 2-for-8, 3 RBI
Guys not getting it done:
Delgado, Schneider, Pagan: a combined 4-for-23 with 5 RBI.
What the...
Castillo 0-for-5, 0 ribs
Beltran 0-for-14, 0 ribs
In other splits news, the team as a whole is hitting .205 with a .352 OBP with 2 outs.
I honestly think the 2 outs batting mentality is a key thing for this team. Of course you can get a lot of runs during a pile-on rally, but those don't necessarily happen very often, especially when we face off against a top pitcher like Zambrano, Hudson, Smoltz, Haren, Peavy, Webb, etc. In those cases it really is critical to try to grab whatever you can, and that means refusing to lay down until an at-bat or an inning really is over. To me, this is one of the biggest changes in mentality that will be required of this team if they want to make the playoffs, win in the playoffs, and win the WS.
It's of course easy to focus when you are starting an inning, or when you come up to bat with an easy RBI chance (man on 2nd or 3rd, less than 2 outs). But the teams with disciplined, focused players who give it their all even with 2 outs and bases empty will fare that much better, and the Sox are proof of that.
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