According to the Mets Geek Payroll Spreadsheet, we'll be freeing up $41.5 Mil in payroll this offseason with the departures of Alou, Delgado, Pedro, and El Duque.
What will our needs be?
Well, we know that we will have Santana and Maine back in the rotation, and Pelfrey should still be in the rotation, but not a lock to be a top 3 starter. So we need two starters, of which Perez may well be one.
If Carp keeps punishing the ball in AA, and later this season, AAA, he'll be given a shot to replace Delgado in the spring next year, saving lots 'o cash.
I don't think the lineup can suffer through having two position players who can't hit (the now crippled Castillo and Schneider), so I think the Mets are going to have to eat a big cash loss and go get a new 2B in the offseason. That should become a lot more clear as the year goes on and Castillo spends 20 to 40 games on the DL.
If Pagan can continue his solid play, the Mets look like they're settled in the OF for now, and Angel can keep F Mart's place warm unitl 2010 or so.
Bullpen: Heilman's under our control until 2010. Wagner, Sanchez, and the Scho are all under contract (control in Sanchez's case) until after the 2009 seaon. Joe Smith and Feliciano are under our control for a while, I would think, though not sure. Same with Burgos, Muniz, Padilla and Vargas if they're healthy and contributing ("ifs," I know).
Wise and Sosa are the only folks we lose at the end of this year, so hopefully a couple of the "ifs" mentioned above can step forward next year. Else we might need to cherry pick a reliever somewhere, but it shouldn't have to be a big ticket guy.
So the needs are these: 2 SP's (one of which is a front-liner), 2B, and maybe a reliver if the right situation presents itself. If you figure 25% of the freed up payroll will go to existing player increases (just a WAG), that would leave about $30 Mil on the table for signings.
SP/2B/and RP options....
Coming soon.
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2 comments:
My thinking is: pitching, pitching, pitching. Quality pitching is what wins the WS, poor pitching is what gets you out after the first round.
Offense without pitching is useless; see the Yankees this decade.
We need a legit #2 to back up Johan, first and foremost. I think Maine is good for #3. What we do with Perez and Pelfrey will obviously depend in large part on this season, but my guess is that we'll probably also want to pick up a solid #4 or #5 guy (assuming Figueroa doesn't turn out to be that guy).
As for the pen, if Heilman settles in, and Sanchez stays healthy, and Joe Smith is as good as now as well as early '07, that really makes a huge difference. I think Feliciano is great as a spot guy, so we may only need to pick up one guy for the pen. To be honest, the real problem with the pen is not the pen; it's the starters. If our starters keep going only 5-6 innings, there is no way our bullpen can keep up and still have gas in the tank in Sep. So making sure we have a legit #1 and #2 that give 8 innings every quality outing is critical.
As for openings, I'd really like to see some role players who have good BA with RISP. It's great having stars like Reyes, Wright, and Beltran, but without guys like Church and Pagan to get on base and knock in runs when you have clutch situations, we're not going anywhere. These guys can make a big difference because with pitchers so focused on getting out our big three, they are more likely to slip and give the other guys a mistake to hit. Making sure we have players in those slots who can consistently capitalize is key. I think of guys like Youkilis, Lowell, and Varitek on the Sox. They have solid OBPs and pick up runs in clutch at-bats.
Castillo is a sucker.
What we need to get away from is being enamored with players who are great when healthy, but routinely injured. That is, Alou, Castro, Pedro, Duque, ... It's hard not to like these players when they are healthy and producing, because they are solid performers when healthy, but I think at the end of the day they hurt more than they help due to time on IR. It forces the team to juggle the roster, make moves to pick up back-ups, and lose a sense of "team".
We need a legit #2 to back up Johan, first and foremost. I think Maine is good for #3.
Yep.
What we need to get away from is being enamored with players who are great when healthy, but routinely injured. That is, Alou, Castro, Pedro, Duque.
3 of the 4 have contracts that expire. Castro's the exception. He'll probably be back, if he ever gets back to the big league club.
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