Why I already hate Citi Field

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it will look awesome and will be a huge upgrade in appearance over Shea. But I still have 41,000 reasons (45,000 if you include standing room) to hate Citi Field. Going from 55,000 down to 41-45 K is a HUGE drop in capacity, and will put us squarely in line with mid-market teams. Keep in mind also the Mets averaged 47.5 K this year. One of the things I really liked about Shea was that it could hold a huge number of fans, and as well they could keep ticket prices reasonable. Now, with this smaller stadium artificially driving up demand and prices, fewer people will get to see each game and they'll have to pay a lot more for it.

I don't even necessarily mind higher ticket prices, but at the end of the day this is New York. We're supposed to have the best of the best. Whereas the Yankees are doing that (~55 K in their new stadium, and inclusion of over-the-top amenities), the Mets are not.

This stadium is too small for NY, and a disservice to loyal Mets fans.

Mets tix

Are Mets tix already sold out, or have they just not yet posted a lot of them online? If you try to purchase single-game tickets there are only about 8 or so games all season that have any available, and they are all upper deck only. I can't believe they already sold out almost every game, although it is the last year of Shea.

Pshew!

Was it just me, or was that whole rigamarole a little too close to the wire for comfort?

Gotta admit, I got a touch of the SHK's thinking that the Mets would botch the contract and cause the deal to fall through...

In other news...

PLD is injured for at least 6 weeks, Nats need to find another catcher. What a lousy last few months for him. First, busted in Mitchell Report. Next, injury. Now, Mets pick up the best pitcher on the planet, and he's not on the team.

METS LAND SANTANA!!!!

This, I think the saying goes, changes everything.

Humber, Mulvey, Guerra and Carlos Gomez for Santana. We still have to work out the $ with Johan, and the years.

We hold onto F Mart and Pelfrey.

I love it.

BTW, not much to say other than that this is mad redemption for Omar. I mocked him after we traded Lastings and then didn't have the pieces to get Johan. Except we did have the pieces, and apparently Omar guessed right. Good on him.

Mets getting closer to Johan?

According to Buster Olney, action is imminent. He says that Boston is backing away, taking Lester off the table. He also cites this Joel Sherman column, that thinks the Mets are rising as a possible destination because the Twins tried to squeeze too much out of the Sawx and Yanks, both of whom seem to be pulling back from Santana Sweepstakes.

All is not yet lost with this offseason.

Focus

This Post article has Delgado repeating the Mets '07 story.

"We need to stay focused an extra six weeks," Delgado said yesterday of his team that choked away the NL East to the Phillies. "We kind of assumed that we were going to win. If you look back at 2006, it was kind of a magical year for us, maybe we thought it was going to be the same way (in 2007)."

"We kind of didn't play it out the last few weeks," Delgado said.

"If I see it next year, we definitely are going to be more aware of it," he said. "We are going to make it better in 2008. No one is going to hand you anything on a silver platter. In this game you have to go out and get it."

This reasoning behind the '07 meltdown has been offered by multiple players on the Mets. Bottom line: this is inexcusable and speaks volumes about the character of the players and coaches. GOOD players and coaches already know this to be true, they don't sit back and wait for victory to come to them, they go after it EVERY SINGLE GAME. Did you ever see Michael Jordan ease up on the gas? How about the Patriots? Red Sox? Or even the Yankees despite an onslaught of early injuries this year and a hideous start out of the gate? Those teams, unlike the Mets, had the proper character in their players and coaches. I could excuse a lack of focus on a young team, but with as many veterans as the Mets have and with one of the oldest teams in MLB, there is no excuse. This to me is a culture that must be ingrained in every player from the top of the organization down, from ownership to GM to coach to player, and it just disgusts me that it is not taking place on the Mets. It doesn't really bode well for '08, unless they make some major personnel changes.

Santana still in play

While it doesn't sound great, at least the Mets are still in the hunt. Omar must've made his best offer and hopes that no one else will pony up the players + $ needed to land Johann. If it turns into a buyer's market, maybe the Twins reconsider the Mets offer. From Buster Olney's blog:

The Twins continue to stay in contact with the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets and Mariners about a Johan Santana deal, but those talks have moved so slowly it's now possible a trade may not get done "for several weeks," a source with knowledge of the discussions told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.

The most surprising aspect of those talks to some baseball people is that the Mets remain in the mix. It may be because the Twins would like to move Santana to the National League if possible. But while the Mets have made a four-for-one offer built around center fielder Carlos Gomez, indications are that the teams remain far apart.

Offseason

While Omar sits around and proclaims his satisfaction with his current rotation, other NL teams are taking steps to improve. D-backs just got Haren, pairing him up with Webb, giving them a lights-out 1-2 punch. If we don't get Bedard or Santana or Kazmir, I think we're not in playoffs next year, figuring that Phillies beat us in NL east again.

PLD on "the list"

Lo Duca was among those included in the Mitchell Report, leading one to wonder if Omar knew and that's why he's gone now.

Missing the point entirely

I am sick and tired of hearing Omar say the Mets pitching staff is fine, on the basis that we have Maine and Perez.

Minaya was referring to 26-year-olds John Maine and Oliver Perez, who, in his mind, both turned a corner last year.

Whether or not Maine and Perez have "turned a corner" is only a secondary point. The main point is Pedro, Duque, and #5. It is an absolute FACT that El Duque will be injured at some point next season, and most likely when we need him most. It is also a fact that we have no clear #5 starter, since Pelfrey seems incapable. Finally, and most importantly, you can't possibly know what to expect out of Pedro in terms of durability. I am pretty comfortable saying that if he is healthy, he'll be a legit #1 after seeing the way he pitched in September. But can anyone honestly feel comfortable that he will be in a position to pitch the whole season and post-season after coming off major surgery? That's a huge gamble in my mind, especially when your #2 is guaranteed to be injured.

Finally, Perez for me has only "turned a corner" when he stops his binomial distribution of pitching: either a gem or a bust. He needs some more stability and consistency. When he's on, he's simply unbelievable and perhaps our best pitcher. But without consistency, he can't be better than a #3 or #4 on a team that truly wants to contend for WS.

Los Mets

Of course everyone who follows the Mets has heard or made the observation that Omar seems to prefer Latino players. This list from a Page 2 article does nothing to dispel that notion:

Nearly five years ago, when Jose Reyes debuted as New York's spark plug of the future, fans were excited. When, nearly three years ago, the Mets added Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez, fans were elated. When, however, Minaya added Perez and Chavez and Valentin and Ambiorix Burgos and Orlando Hernandez and Eli Marrero and Julio Franco and Ricky Ledee and Jose Lima and Sandy Alomar Jr. and Jorge Julio and Duaner Sanchez and Geremi Gonzalez and Miguel Cairo and Jorge Sosa and Ramon Castro and Luis Castillo and Jose Offerman and Carlos Delgado and Ruben Gotay and Guillermo Mota and Moises Alou and ...well, the bloom is off the rose."

Mets prospects

According to this, it sounds like our "prospects" are the laughingstock of the league. I have to say, I definitely was very concerned with the performance of both Pelf and Humber last year; neither really showed any signs of progress over the season. On the other hand, one has to wonder whether the Mets are shooting themselves in the foot by bringing up their rookies a season too early (almost certainly true for Joe Smith, Pelfrey, Gomez, Milledge, ...) This has two negatives: first, it almost certainly hinders proper development of the players, which in turn causes negative feedback. Second, it provides a negative showcase of our talent as potential trade bait, since they underperform expectations. Or, perhaps Pelf and Humber are just highly overrated busts like Pulsipher and Wilson.

Given the age of this team, assuming no major trades this offseason by Mets, we need at least three of Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey, Smith, Gomez, and F-mart to become legit MLB talents if the Mets are going to be competing in the next 3-5 years. Otherwise, they are going to have to trade a premier player like Wright, Reyes, or Beltran to pick up a bunch of young prospects in return.

Looks like we might gather all the Nats flotsam

if this story proves true.

I need someone to square this circle

From today's Newsday:

As for the Mets, chips like Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez and Philip Humber are not proven commodities yet. Even Mike Pelfrey, who is 5-9 with a 5.55 ERA the past two seasons, is not a sure thing.

Minaya is shopping these names around -- he met with Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail about left-hander Erik Bedard -- but there does not seem to be enough to get a [Bedard] deal done.

From last week's Newsday:

Before making Friday's trade, Minaya called other potential trade partners and was told that dealing Milledge to the Nationals would not hinder the Mets' chances of obtaining a front-line starter. Carlos Gomez is the young outfielder other teams want.

Said Minaya, "We were told that if we were to move Lastings, we have enough talent in our system to be able to complete deals for the guys we're talking about."

Hey Omar, last week you said there was still enough on the farm to reel in a big fish. Now, word is, Bedard will take more chips than we have.

What the E?

I guess I should have known that things were heading in a bad direction when Omar had to solicit the opinions of other GM's on the value of his remaining prospects. That's right, apparently Omar took the word of our opponents in determining how to proceed.

Next up on Occ Obs: W solicits Mahmoud's opinion on whether the US military is capable of occupying N Korea.

What the E?

It's headlines like this that I love:

Minaya: New York Mets don't need to trade for big-name pitcher

Omar just scares me sometimes. If he thinks this is going to help him keep other GM's expectations down on what he'll offer, he must be sampling his own product. The Mets obviously need a front line starter. We obviously need to win NOW, what with the new ballpark coming up, and the fact we're a major market team with the budget to win every year). Pedro as a #1 and Duque as a #2 is a joke with the mileage those two have seen. We desperately need the arm. Obviously, either Gomez or F Mart is going to be dealt. Same for Pelfrey, Humber or Mulvey. My WAG for a Bedard offer is Heilman, Pelf and Gomez.

Bedard

There are rumors Mets might be pursuing Bedard. I have to say that the trend of his numbers over the last 4 years is so incredible as to be hard to believe. I haven't heard much about his recovery since his oblique strain, but I assume no lasting damage.

Check out his steady and significant improvement over time in almost every category of importance: ERA, Ks, BBs, AVG, SLG, OBP, IP, OPS, W-L, etc. Pretty amazing trend.

Quote of the day

Not baseball-related, but this is still funny:

Asked if the Jets did anything on offense that that Dolphins didn't expect, (Jason) Taylor said, "Score 40 points."

No-han

If this deal for Johan Santana goes through I am done watching baseball.

It is bad enough if he goes to the BlowSox, b/c it guarantees them at least a 5-year dynasty on top of the Pats. But if the Twins really are willing to part with Santana for the pitifully low return of Crisp, Lester, Lowrie, and a 4th bogus player, that is so far beyond absurd it makes Cone for Hearn look like an even pick 'em. I can't even begin to describe how irate I will be if the Sox can land Santana and give up so little in return.

Coco Crisp, while a great CF defensively, offensively STINKS. Lester, while a good prospect, is hardly their top pitching prospect (Buchholz, Papelbon, and recently-traded Gabbard are all higher). And I've never even heard of Lowrie. If Sox can get Santana without having to give up at least one of Buchholz and Ellsbury it is beyond shameful. It would be like the Mets offering a package of Shawn Green, Mike Carp, and Heilman to get Santana. I am so bothered by this report, I can only hope it's a bogus rumor someone floated, maybe by the Twins so the Yankees would up their ante.

Santana

It seems increasingly unlikely we will get Santana, I go back to my earlier post that I don't think we have enough chips to trade compared to Yankees and Sox, both of which are also pursuing Santana. That said, the Twins' asking price is possibly too high for both the Yanks and Sox; I'm not sure either team wants to part with as many of their top prospects as the Twins want. However, the Yankees (having already lost Daisuke to Sox) cannot afford to let Santana go to Sox. A rotation of Beckett, Santana, Schilling, Daisuke, and Wakefield all but guarantees WS for several years in a row. (And that assumes Sox have to part with top prospects Buccholz and Lester to get Santana; if not, they are even stronger.) So Yankees will probably have to bite the bullet if they think Sox are really going to get him.

I'd like to see us talk trade with TB for Kazmir.

Jimmy Rollins...

...you magnificent d-bag. You start the season by proclaiming the Phillies are the team to beat, support your seemingly preposterous claim all season by making the Mets the Phillies' whipping boy and taking 1st place in NL East, and then end the season by taking home the NL MVP. Well played sir, well played.

Mets resign Castillo for 4 years

I like Luis Castillo. He was once an excellent player. He is still a good player.

But Eckstein would have been such a great fit, I'm feeling the let down right now.

On top of that, Castillo looked like his chronic hip and knee problems were downright debilitating at times this season. I think it's a huge gamble to think he'll be playing at a high level in 3 years. Here's hoping he comes back in April looking rejuvinated.

Bor-a$$

I am so glad to see that Bor-ass' latest over-the-top move is blowing up in his face. First, to tell the Yankees that unless they were willing to start discussions at $350 M, don't even talk to A-rod, is outrageous. Which teams exactly does Boras thinks have the money and the interest in signing one particular player up for >$35 M/yr for 10 years? That's insane, practically no teams have a payroll that could afford that, let alone want to do that. Boras is an idiot and he's getting what he deserved - no interest. He thought he could strong-arm the Yankees into some ridiculously inflated deal and it isn't going to happen. I hope A-rod has to sign for less than he was already making.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, A-rod's regular season #s really are not that much greater than several other players, all of whom are paid less than half of what a-rod is asking for. I'm sorry, but A-rod is not worth 2x Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Vlad Guerrero, etc. Especially when you consider that he stinks in the playoffs. His post-season performance is simply unacceptable at the salary he's asking for.

FA Market

So far Posada's been signed, Lowell was not, Glavine was not. Since the Mets apparently are no longer interested in Lo Duca, this means they must be banking on getting Torrealba. I understand that PLD is getting up there in years, but Torrealba's #s are underwhelming at best, and he's no better fielding or throwing runners out. So I'm not sure how this helps the team, unless there was some behind-the-scenes stuff where they don't think PLD is a good fit in the clubhouse.

I doubt we're bringing back Glavine. Braves want him, and that's where he'd rather be. It's where he's always wanted to be.

I think the Mets have zero chance of getting Santana, if the Yankees are serious about pursuing him. The Yankees have much better younger pitchers they can offer in return; last season had to reduce the trade value of Pelfrey and Humber. Apparently Milledge is still high on people's wish lists, and perhaps Gomez as well. But I just don't think we have the raw number of quality young players to get into a serious bidding war for Johan. I'm not sure where that leaves us, it means we have to go after Haren or Oswalt hard. As an alternative, maybe we could do a deal with the Sox. They desperately need a CF who can hit, perhaps they'd be interested in Milledge in exchange for some young pitching. On the other hand, Sox will probably just sign Torii as a free agent, costing them nothing in players.

I think there's a better than 50% chance that we don't make any major moves in this offseason. The only way we could land a blockbuster deal (i.e., Johan) is if we were willing to part with Jose-jose-jose, and that's not going to happen. I think Minaya is banking heavily on Pelf or Humber stepping up in a major way in '08. Rotation: Pedro - Duque - Maine - Perez - Pelf, with Humber waiting in the wings.

Gammons says Wright should stay put

In this love note to David, Gammons lays out the case for why Wright should not be asked to switch positions for anyone, including A-Rod. I should note that I somewhat discount Gammons opinions b/c he's still relatively new to the game of baseball.

...it is hard to understand what the Mets were thinking when they treated their best player as if he were Damion Easley. Move David Wright to second base? Puh-leaze. Not only did he win the Gold Glove at third this season, but he's never played second base, even going back to AAU ball when Ryan Zimmerman had to switch to second because Wright was the third baseman. Left field? Absurd. Wright is, along with Zimmerman, one of the two best defensive third basemen in the National League. And while A-Rod is very good, his range factor was below that of Miguel Cabrera.

Is Wright ever going to be a 50-home run hitter? Probably not, especially at Shea Stadium. But look at Wright's career offensive numbers compared to A-Rod's through age 24:

_Rodriguez Wright
BA .308 .311
OBP .363 .388
SLG .551 .533
OPS .914 .921
HR 148 97

This is not about Wright vs. Rodriguez, because they are both great players, and Rodriguez at first base with Wright at third and Jose Reyes at short would be a spectacular combination. But Wright, at 24, accepted every responsibility when the Mets struggled down the stretch. While the majority of his teammates practically hid out and ducked under tables in the players' lounge, Wright was there to answer the tough questions. "I feel," he said one day, "that it is my responsibility."

Granted, Rodriguez was a Gold Glove shortstop who moved to third base, but he initiated the action to get out of Texas. And when the Yankees took a hard line in regards to his negotiations with the players associated, he had no choice but to move over in respect for Derek Jeter. This is different. Wright is the Mets' best player; he's not moving to another position. He and Willie Randolph were the two people who stood and accepted the harsh music down the stretch, and after seeing how Randolph was carved up, now Wright has read that he is fungible.

With Tom Glavine likely gone, the Mets need pitching -- starting and relieving. Their starters weren't as bad as some think. They were second in the National League in quality starts and fifth in starters' ERA (4.40). But unless Pedro Martinez stages a miracle comeback, they really don't have a starter who'd be a No. 3 on an American League contender.

They also need Wright, his talent, his extraordinary character, his leadership, his face on the franchise's banners for the next decade. Which is why Jeff Wilpon owes his best player, big-time.

Mets lock up Marlon Anderson

for 2 yrs, $2.2 Mil (1.05+1.15).

At that price, a no brainer.

Some MetsGeek Thoughts on Humber

beerbourineman has the analysis in their "Prospect Geek" series. Here's some of the key quotes:

The PCL is extremely tough on pitchers. In fact, it contains some of the most hitter-friendly environments on the planet...

...[Humber's] overall numbers might not look impressive, but they are, due to the environment. In fact, that 1.24 WHIP led the PCL in 2007.

Conventional wisdom says that pitcher’s who undergo Tommy John surgery can take up to two full seasons to completely return to form (Kerry Wood, Erik Bedard, Dustin McGowan and Chris Capuano are examples of pitchers who follow this pattern). The most common problems that pitchers have to overcome post-TJ are losses of command and stamina. Humber has no problem with control, but those who followed his 2007 season can attest to the fact that he often started well, but wore down toward the end of starts...

The best comp for Humber in 2008 is one that Met fans would be very happy to see fulfilled: Dustin McGowan. McGowan, like Humber, was a fire-balling first round pick who was on the fast track to stardom before Tommy John surgery in 2004. After struggling in 2005 and 2006 to regain the feel of his pitches, McGowan had a breakout season in 2007, posting a 4.08 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, even coming within outs of posting a no-hitter against Colorado. McGowan also has a similar repertoire to Humber’s (or what Humber’s should be in 2008), pounding mid-90s fastballs high in the zone and relying on a sharp 12-to-6 curveball for strikeouts. Humber will be heading into 2008 as a 25-year-old, as McGowan did in 2007. I’ll predict a line of 14 wins, a 4.11 ERA, 167 strikeouts, 62 walks and 21 homers allowed over 184 innings, which would be a nice two-win upgrade over Tom Glavine.

And I don’t have to tell you all how valuable two wins can be.

The Hunt for Baseball in October...

...begins and perhaps ends for the Mets with the search for real starting pitching. Buster Olney has some comments on that front here.

I have to say I've read a lot of commentary by various people that there is concern whether Pelfrey will ever develop a solid, reliable 2nd and 3rd pitch, necessary if he is to become a truly dominant starting pitcher. If not, he certainly would make an outstanding reliever. I understand the Mets don't want to relegate him to the bullpen unless/until they've decided that's his fate in life since he'd be losing the stamina necessary as a SP by only working out of pen, but at some point they will need to make this call. If he's not a legit SP, trade him or move him to pen. They certainly made this call very early on for Heilman, against his strong wishes otherwise.

Mets snag 2 NL Gold Gloves

Beltran, his second, and Wright, his first.

More here.

Mets keep Alou, Easley

From the NY Post's Mets blog:

Two of the oldest Mets will be back for another season at Shea.
The team today announced it has picked up its $7.5 million option on 41-year-old outfielder Moises Alou for 2008 and re-signed soon-to-be 38-year-old free agent infielder Damion Easley to a one-year, $950,000 contract.

From the Post blog's comments:

whats the matter omar, AARP didnt have any other players for the other positions? to sign a soon to be 42 yr old leftfielder who plays half a season to a 7.5 m contract is irresponsible. he WILL get hurt AGAIN, as he ALWAYS does. omar minaya is proving to be one of the worst gm's in all of baseball.

Posted by: dc on October 31, 2007 09:03 PM

I have to disagree (resigning your best hitter statistically can never be that bad a move at 7.5), but the AARP line made me chuckle.