So, the fork now comes out clean. But what do we do next? The postseason is totally out of the question for this year. But I personally think that the Mets have a small window of opportunity to turn this franchise around quickly, meaning we could get back in the hunt in 1-3 years. It requires several things to happen in short order:
1. Clean house in upper mgt. Yes, it's clearly come to this. Take advantage of the current situation to get rid of not only of Omar, but his deputies as well. Here's looking at you, Tony B.
2. Fire Jerry. Pretty much speaks for itself. I was amazed listening to FAN today. Almost every caller was like, "why is this guy such a clown?" "How can you start your press conference laughing and chuckling when you lose 11-0?" "What's with all the exaggerated pauses when he talks? Can he not think, or does he think it makes him look pensive?"
Couldn't have seen that one coming.
Anyway, getting rid of the manager who throws his players, particularly the vulnerable ones, into the line of fire to preserve his own rep, will be essential if we want to succeed at the next point:
3. Rebuild our key marketable players. Getting Beltran and Delgado on track would actually help our W/L ratio. Alas, that ship has sailed. Ain't gonna happen. So let's focus on the next most importnat thing: building up the value of the players who are most important to our future (and, as a corollary, have the most trade value b/c they are under organization control, relatively cheap, and potentially have several good years in front of them). So what does this mean?
-Get Pelfrey on track. Great stuff. Flashes of excellence. Clearly still gets rattled. Pelf is a guy who needs a manager that he knows is in his corner. A LaRussa/Duncan type of coaching combination would be so great for Pelf.
-Rebuild Murphy's value. This kid is clearly capable of so much more than he's doing. Part of it, of course, is the player's doing. He's got to adjust to the pitchers who have adjusted to him by busting him inside off the plate. But part of it is clearly the way the organization has misued him. Forced him out of position. Started sitting him when he was hitting nearly .300. When he gets hot and his a 3 hit day, bank on Jerry sitting him the next game. Expect the manager to talk the press, and not the player, about what his expectations are for the player. Well, at this point, Murphy needs to be playing every day until he makes his adjustments. He eventually will. This kid will put together a .330 month at some point this season, or at worst, the first half of next year, and his trade value as a cheap, young stick, who's finally found a position, will be largely restored. And hopefully we keep him, because I love the kid. But I'd rather be faced with the dilemma of keeping a rising young star or trading a valuable chip than where we are with Murph right now.
-Get Reyes healthy and productive. This is an obvious no-brainer. If Reyes comes back in early to mid August and hits over .300 the rest of the way, stealing bases, you'll have a guy that can bring back a good price in the offseason. If he doesn't get back till mid Sept., or is scuffling and running gingerly, we'll be going into 2010 with Reyes at SS and our collective breaths held.
-Get a good look at that AA catching prospect in Sept.
-Get Maine healthy and pitching.
-As a total bonus, I would hope we can get Beltran going. I personally think he's going to be a chronic injury problem for the rest of his career, whether that's one year or five. But if he were to come back and get healthy, maybe we could unload him in the offseason for something of value. It hurts me to say it, b/c Beltran is truly a unique player in MLB. Not saying he's a top 5 player like he's paid, but he's a unique combination of abilities that will be difficult to replicate
4. Clear the deck of dead payroll
-Unload Perez at the deadline to some sucker who will eat his $12M thinking it will get them across the finish line this year. After all, as Omar can remind other GMs, Perez defied his previous performance with a solid posteason in '06. He rises to the occasion, right?
-Unload Castillo is anyone will take him. Two more years of this? No thank you. But he is hitting decently this year, so maybe someone in the hunt with an injury 'll take a flyer on him.
-Let Delgado walk at the end of the year.
If we can get all these things done, we might be in a position to sign some FAs in the offseason, and make some trades to change the character of the team, as well as address some needs.
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4 comments:
I agree with most of this; given our current situation there's not much else we can do.
Unfortunately, for any of this to matter, I do think it is critical that Omar be replaced and I just don't know if the Wilpons will do that. (For that matter I think the Wilpons as owners is another issue, but that's unaddressable.)
Once Omar is gone then you can bring in a new manager, new strength/conditioning coaches, new pitching coach, etc. I think picking the right people here is absolutely critical to set the tone for the team. The players need a strong culture.
I guess the question will be, if we can find teams to take Perez, Castillo, Reyes, Beltran, etc., what will we get in return? Will it be enough to make us a legit contender? Possibly, especially if we replace existing management with good management. Our farm system is fairly depleted, which makes it tough though.
Ultimately though I'd guess it's a few years before this team is a legit contender for WS. Omar made several big bets, and they obviously haven't collectively paid off. If this team wants to take advantage of the few positive things it has going for it (Santana, K-Rod, Wright) it owes it to them to dramatically shake up the culture and team. After a while even those guys will get worn down and you will have ruined their value with the Mets.
Wilpons as owners is not unaddresable. If you get a grass roots fan effort NOT to go to games, NOT to buy merchandise, ownership can be run off pretty quick.
Problem is, that is the type of thing that usually only can garner support if the owner obviously doesn't care. Based on the Mets payroll, it's hard to make the argument that the Wilpons don't care.
Whether they know how to hire appropriately, and create the culture necessary to achieve success if another matter.
What you can get for the guys you mention is going to be contingent on how they perform down the stretch (particularly w/r/t Castillo and Perez), and how healthy they appear to be (Reyes & Beltran). If you can't get the right amount back for Reyes & Beltran, you have no choice but to hold onto them. Castillo and Perez are addition by subtraction. Spending that payroll anywhere else is likely to be an upgrade.
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