Friday, July 03, 2009

Re: Should the Mets be Sellers?

Presuming the Mets don't look completely shut off and get swept by Philthies, I'm going to answer the question with a "no." If Beltran and Reyes were healthy and the team was playing as poorly as it has, I'd think differently. But with the two of them presumably coming back in July (I'll believe it when I see it), the Mets very much in the NL East due to the mediocrity of the division, and most importantly, the fact that neither is going to be very tradeable until they show GMs around the league that they are healthy, I don't think you're really getting anywhere by adding prospects.

Unfortunately, since the cupboard is almost completely bare (with F Mart, Evans, Murphy, and Parnell all on the parent club, Niese is the only near-major-league-ready talent I can think of with any trade value in the whole Mets farm system), I can't see Omar having the chips to improve the team much, either. And by the way, in my mind, Omar takes a bigger hit for what's going on in the minors this year than anything he's done with the big league club. Go straight down the line, and all you see are once highly regarded prospects that have been rushed through the system. Guys like Ruben Tejada and Brad Holt have been rushed from level to level. Tejada was promoted after an abysmal run at A+, and yet has been OK at AA so far. Holt looked like the best Mets pitching prospect at the system at A ball and high A, and yet was up at AA after just over one season in the system. Through his first two starts there he's getting rocked. When you realize these promotions are being made out of necessity more than a plan, Omar's failure to care for the system comes more fully into view. Often times, when you're comparing two similar major leaguers, it's crap shoot which will perform better (which is why I don't get too crazy about things like the Milledge for Church/Schneider trade--I'd have preferred keeping Lastings depsite his d-baggery, but it's a 50/50 question which side is getting the better deal). But when you're dealing with prospects, it's usually pretty well known which your blue chippers are, and the failure to staff the minors appropriately so that these guys don't have to be rushed, it is simply a failure of planning.

Speaking of chips, anyone have an update on how Humber, Mulvey, Gomez, Carp, and Milledge are doing these days?

3 comments:

SheaHeyKid said...

Speaking of chips, anyone have an update on how Humber, Mulvey, Gomez, Carp, and Milledge are doing these days?

Sucks, promising, really sucks, very promising, really truly sucks.

I agree with the point that one of Omar's major shortcomings has been running our players through the farm too quickly. He has brought people up WAY too soon and set them back years in their development. Not to mention dropped their trade value by showing how poorly they performed at MLB level.

I disagree about being sellers. I have said several times recently that I think we still have a reasonable shot at winning NL East, and almost certainly will only be separated from Phillies by 1-2 games. That said, I don't like this team. They don't play hard. They don't play disciplined. They are the same broken record we've seen for years, even when healthy (which they never are). Even if we make the playoffs, I don't think we have any shot against Dodgers or winner of ALCS.

I personally would like to trade some combo of Beltran, Reyes and Delgado to restock our prospects.

Fredo said...

I think we agree in principle and are only disagreed as to timing. My point is that I'm not convinced we'll be able to get back value for these players right now, because of the injuries. The fact that we could squeak into the playoffs and, hey, you never know, is a lesser factor.

If I'm wrong, and we can trade these guys for equal value, then I'd be all for it.

Fredo said...

I see Delois Guerra is really truly sucking too. I guess the talent we gave up in the past couple of years hasn't amounted to all that much big-league performance yet. But I still don't think we'll know for another 3-5 years if any of these guys will be front line major leaguers.