Monday, May 21, 2007

M-E-T-S

Barring unforseen injuries I think it is a safe bet to say Mets will win NL East this year, and if not, certainly will get the wild card. It's hard to see a team as talented as Mets not making playoffs in the weak NL.

That said, here are a few things I've seen this year carry over from last year that I think are going to cause the Mets problems in big games, such as the playoffs. These definitely frustrate me to no end.

1. Jose Reyes' disappearance in big games. The fact that he is hands down the best player on the Mets 9 nights out of 10 makes his lack of production in big names that much more noticeable. Beyond what you saw over this weekend series with Yankees, we can look at last year's series with Yankees (6 games, 5-24 = .208 avg), last year's playoffs (10 games, .250 avg, .298 OBP), and last year against Red Sox (3 games, 1-13 = .077 avg). Somehow he has got to find a way to be more of a factor in big game series.

2. Beltran's defense. Beltran has got a great arm and certainly above average speed, range, and fielding ability. The problem is he never seems to want to lay out; I always feel like he's playing injured or "safe". I've never seen a gold glover who has fewer spectacular catches than Beltran. Twice this season already, including last night's game against Yanks, I've seen him not hold onto balls in his glove that he really should have caught. Certainly Andruw Jones or Coco Crisp (a guy with a cereal name for F's sake!) easily make those catches as well as ones 10 times harder. See for example the 2B David Wright should've had in game 3 against Sox last year but was robbed by Crisp on a #1 web gem of the week diving catch. I've never seen Beltran even attempt anything close.

3. Approach at the plate. The mets never really seem to have a team plan when facing a pitcher. They rarely drive up anyone's pitch count, and also never seem to modify their swing depending on the situation. There are definitely spots and pitch counts where it makes sense to try to go yard. But far too often, when the situation clearly calls for something else, I almost never see any adjustment. Two exceptions are Chavez and Lo Duca, they definitely adjust their swing depending on who's on base, # of outs, and pitch count.

4. I think not re-signing Bradford and Oliver is going to haunt the Mets. Bradford is getting $3.3 M/yr and Oliver got $1.5 M. Instead we've got Schoeneweis ($3.6 M) and Sele ($1 M) at almost same amount.

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