Having watched Mets pitching blow two leads in game 2, and the vaunted pen collapse, the future is starting to look a bit cloudy.
Mota, Heilman, and Wagner all threw a lot of pitches tonight, and Mota and Wagner were doing it for the second straight night. If Trax does not pitch deep into the game tomorrow, and/or the Mets stake the staff to a sizeable lead of 4 runs or more, it's going to get very tricky. And Trax, of course, is well known for nibbling and running up his pitch count and relying on the pen early.
Will Wagner bounce back mentally from 3 ER's in 2/3 of an IP? A closer makes his money just as much for the ability to forget the bad outing and come back strong tomorrow, as he does for his raw ability.
Looking further down the line, we have Perez in game 4 and a short-rested Glavine in game 5. Perez has consistently been lifted early in games. After his CG on 9/6, here's how he's fared:
9/12 5.0 IP, 101 pitches, 4 runs
9/20 5.1 IP, 109 pitches, 3 runs
9/26 5.1 IP, 73 pitches, 6 runs
10/1 4.0 IP, 77 pithces, 1 run
All those outings were against non-playoff teams. He hasn't pitched six innings in over a month, and, by the time of his start, won't have pitched at all in a game situation in 2 weeks. Not great for a pitcher whose primary issue is command. A depleted pen will be tested again in game 4.
Even on short rest, I have confidence in Glavine to give our team a chance to win in game 5.
Maine vs. Carpenter in game 6 will still be an unfavorable matchup, even at Shea, and especially because a Cy Young pitcher like Carpenter will be spitting bullets. No way does he want to throw two stinkers in a row and become the A-Rod of the Archway.
If it goes 7, I like our chances at home with every arm on deck and another Trax-Suppan matchup.
My assessment? I'm sticking with the Mets in 7, but someone's going to have to pull a rabbit out of their hat in the next couple of nights. Either Trax or Perez is going to have to go 7 or 8 innings and stake the team to a lead. I don't like the odds, but faith has me holding out hope.
Here's my prediction for the rest of the series:
Game 3 Win (against the odds)
Game 4 Loss
Game 5 Win
Game 6 Loss
Game 7 Win
Nip and tuck, baby!
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3 comments:
What a hideous loss. Although I wouldn't have enjoyed it, I could have stomached losing based on Carpenter pitching a strong game. But to lose a game where we're tattooing the Cards' ace, we have leads the whole game, and watch the bullpen blow it is tough.
I think Randolph is trying to get too much out of Mota in particular. The guy is throwing way in the upper 90s, he can't do that for as many pitches as Randolph wants. He's best when we use him every other game, in which case he's untouchable as during the regular season.
As for Wagner, I can understand giving up a run here and there. But to give up a 3 spot in that situation and dig us a hole that's all but impossible to climb out of is unacceptable.
Last, I appreciate Valentin's defense throughout the series, but 1-16 isn't getting it done in that spot, especially since there always seems to be someone on base when he comes up.
Here's the possible silver lining: the Cards had to have everything line up to win. Unusual meltdown from Mota AND Wagner. No hitting from Beltran or Wright. A lot of hits on 0-2 counts. Shawn Green not catching ball at the wall.
Plus, you have to feel good about our offense after the way they handled carpenter.
So trachsel will puke up his usual 3 runs in 4 2/3 innings, but we should score against suppan as well. You bring in hernandez for 1 1/3, oliver for 2 (with feliciano in a spot if necessary), and wagner in 9th.
You know what really hurts about this series: can you imagine playing Cards with a rotation of Pedro - Glavine - El Duque - Maine? Four straight wins would not have been unreasonable.
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