Sunday, September 28, 2008

Well, there is one thing we do know

Today's action was a sweet catharsis, and vindication, for Willie. At least he won't have to go through any of these press conferences any more, and can just laugh at his back-stabbing replacement.

9 comments:

dark commenteer said...

Willie does not get a pass because of the Meltdown, Part Deux.

Jerry's Kids put up the 3rd best record in all of baseball once he took over. All of the team's success this year came after the switch.

Tor the millionth time, it was the failure of the bullpen to do even a half-decent job that was this team's undoing.

Some people want to blame the lineup or some of the starters but the truth is hitting and pitching are, by their nature, streaky. The pen, however, was consistently bad (with a 2 week exception mid-season).

Manuel is not the problem. This does not necessarily mean Willie was the problem and he should not be villified.

This was a severe miscalculation of the bullpen "talent" by upper management that went unresolved at the trade deadline.

At least we now have a clear vision of what needs to be done this off-season. Figure out what Maine's role will be (starter or closer) and go from there. We will need between 1 and 3 starters (do we bring back Ollie?--yes, if the price is right, is Maine a starter?) And totally revamp the pen. Feliciano, Smith, and Stokes (maybe Ayala) are the only ones who have any chance of staying.

I looked at a list of upcoming free agents and there are som interesting options out there but to look before the season ends is ridiculous.

The outcome of these playoffs will greatly alter the free-agent landscape so we'll re-visit this in November.

SheaHeyKid said...

I'm not convinced on Manuel one way or the other yet, and I wasn't a big fan of Willie's. (My beef with Willie is related to tactics he used to manage the game, not whether the team meltdown last year was his fault or not.)

That said, the most immediate short-term problem is the pen. The fact is, the Mets should have been in the same position as the Cubs. The last week of the season should have been MEANINGLESS to them; they should already have been sitting on a 6-8 game lead. The bullpen, and more importantly Omar's poor assessment of it, cost us.

At the same time, the fact that the team has had two late-season meltdowns, shows a complete inability to scratch out runs when they need them, and are incapable of coming from behind to win speaks to the heart of the core of this team. It doesn't exist. Look at the '04 Red Sox. Down 3-0 to Yankees, they go on to win the series and the whole thing. That's heart. Look at '86 Mets. Down to their final out, they rally to win game 6. That's heart. Look at the '99 Mets. They needed to beat the Reds in a one-game tiebreaker to make the playoffs. They won 5-0, that's heart.

The Mets team assembled by Minaya has some good talent, but no heart, and no "team". That is the long-term problem. He has not built a perennial winner. This team needs players like Youkilis, or Piazza, or Dykstra. Players who care, show it, and get the time to rally and believe in themselves. No Mets fan could possibly say they ever felt like this team would ever rally in late innings to win.

Bottom line, after losing in '06, followed by the hideous '07 and '08 meltdowns, the ONLY cure is wholesale player turnover. Not only must the 'pen and starting rotation be revamped, but much of the lineup too. They are not winners, and as importantly they now carry hideous mental baggage. At least two of Delgado, Beltran, Reyes, and perhaps even Wright must be traded.

It is time for a new core, this one does not work.

And again, I don't see why Omar gets a new 4-year deal. If you give nearly any GM the biggest payroll in NL, #2 in baseball, and simply say I need a team that wins 90-92 games to guarantee a playoff spot, that is not very hard.

SheaHeyKid said...

And by the way, as much as the bullpen blew it yet again in yesterday's game, where was the offense???

Olsen began the day 0-3 with a 6.95 ERA against Manuel's club this season.

We couldn't have asked for a more perfect opposing pitcher - WE OWN HIM. How do you only score two runs? I have to hang yesterday's game on the bats.

dark commenteer said...

In today's game, there are no "stars" who could be considered gritty players, a la Nails.

Breaking up the core, especially Wright, Reyes, and even Beltran is retarded. What we need in the lineup and locker room are role players with guts--maybe guys that have won titles elsewhere or are willing to throw themselves down a staircase to win a game.

Again, few players of this ilk remain in the game but that's what we need.

Beside, what are we going to get in return for Reyes, Wright, or Beltran that will be of equal value? There's really no one you could get that produces at this level at even a comprable cost...

SheaHeyKid said...

The core experiment has been tried and failed. This core failed in '06, failed in '07, and failed again this year. I know the bullpen blows and they are #1 to blame, but at the end of the day if the core could have scored a few more runs we'd be in.

In either case, the core is not going to be able to shake off 3 straight years of depressing losses. Team's psyche is shot, time to mix it up. I say keep Wright, maybe Beltran, but if we could trade Delgado and Reyes to get top-flight pitchers, do it.

Even if we made the playoffs, everyone knows that pitching is what wins. We don't have the pitching to compete in the playoffs, so if you want to make this team stronger I'd imagine we need to trade some pretty big chips. I doubt free agent market will have everything we need, so one way or the other we're going to have to part ways with some big names on this team to get top-quality pitching in return.

Fredo said...

Jerry's Kids put up the 3rd best record in all of baseball once he took over. All of the team's success this year came after the switch.

Of course. Willie was critical of players who had failed, while Jerry kissed their overpaid behinds while grandstanding with the press.

As mentioned repeatedly on this blog, a good team generally gets a win% bounce out of a mgr change, even if the new guy is half-witted (see: Harrelson, Buddy).

Tor the millionth time, it was the failure of the bullpen to do even a half-decent job that was this team's undoing.

OK, but Willie had the same pen, but got more out of them. Shouldn't Willie get credit for coaxing far better performances out of the same guys than Manuel?

Some people want to blame the lineup or some of the starters but the truth is hitting and pitching are, by their nature, streaky.

Absolutely. Winning teams are defined by whether their good streaks come when it's important or when it's not. And for those who thought the manager change was really going to matter, it was good to see that the team's performance wasn't any better when it counted. It must bust Willie's gut to see that the team performed just as crappy in the clutch with the "great baseball mind" (as per Beltran) Gangsta running the show.

This was a severe miscalculation of the bullpen "talent" by upper management that went unresolved at the trade deadline.

True.

Figure out what Maine's role will be (starter or closer) and go from there. We will need between 1 and 3 starters...And totally revamp the pen. Feliciano, Smith, and Stokes (maybe Ayala) are the only ones who have any chance of staying.

Agreed.

I like Pelf, Johan, Sabathia (shell out, baby!), Maine and Niese in the rotation.

Smith, Parnell, Feliciano, Duaner (give him a shot to see where his arm strength is in spring training), and 3 free agents (incl. K Rod?).

Reyes best be GONE. This guy brings out the best in the opposition, saves his best performances for exercises in stat compilation, and bats about .075 down the stretch when it counts. For two years in a row. Zero heart.

If he spent half the time improving that he does working on his next celebratory sequence of high fives and dance moves, he'd be hitting 50 points higher and getting 30 more SBs. I pray we pull a Bill Parcells and gut the core. Reyes for Hanley Ramirez, anyone? Now there's a guy who seems to relish putting up in front of New York crowds.

dark commenteer said...

I cannot condone the pursiut of Sabathia or K-Rod. Both of their teams showed that they have no interest in re-signing them and pitched them to oblivion this year.

Sabathia has always had a rep as being an inning-eater but this was ridiculous. Add in the Bartolo Colon-fat guy factor and he's a disaster waiting to happen.

As far as K-Rod goes, how often have we seen a top-flight closer go down the tubes aftera monster season? Unless he's Mariano, look for a big drop off in his production next year.

We're better off looking for younger guys who are approaching their prime rather than the flashy high-mileage dudes...

Finally, I find it difficult to blame the offense this season. The Mets did not win many blow-out games so almost every run they scored was important. Production was good, if not at the right time, and it was pitching failures that cost this team.

Everyone likes to say that the season's a marathon, not a sprint, but it's becoming more and more evident that a win is a win, regardless of what month it is. Win early, have a comfortable lead down the stretch. Win late, and hope you can catch those in front of you.

All this talk about not winning down the stretch and not being "clutch" is a load of crap.

Bottom line, win all season consistently--don't throw away games against sub-par teams just because you play them in May or June.

This marathon is 162 sprints...

SheaHeyKid said...

It is a marathon, and over that marathon the core failed. I agree, it doesn't matter when you get the wins. Ultimately the Mets should've gotten the wins early in the season so that they could coast at the end. I blame Wilpon for a lot of that by his poor handling of the Willie situation. Again, Wilpon sets the tone and clearly does not have what it takes to create a winning organization.

But even take the player who I think is by far the best Met, David Wright. Even he was not good in clutch situations. With RISP, or man on 3rd and less than 2 outs, he only batted about .250. He really stranded a lot of runners. For whatever reason, this team of good individual players has not been able to put it together and make a "team", where the total truly is greater than the sum of the parts.

So, with 3 years of losing history, why stick with it for a 4th? What will be different next year? Realistically, we need to pick up so many pitchers (both starters and relievers) that there is NO way we could do this solely by free agency. If we want to bring it top flight pitching talent (which has to be the focus, because that is what wins games in the playoffs), we're going to have to trade top talent.

Fredo said...

"We're better off looking for younger guys who are approaching their prime rather than the flashy high-mileage dudes..."

This is very right, but very boring for a blog, because I don't know who those guys are and can't spout off about them.