The Mets, by all rights, are headed to the World Series. That said, there are threats out there that could prevent the seemingly inevitable from happening. Luckily for the Mets, the NL is so weak that the threats are not named the Dodgers, Giants, D-Backs, Rockies, Reds, or Cards. So what could go wrong for the Mets in the final third of the season? Lets explore:
1) Beltran's knee gets worse.
The tendonitis in his knee that has been bothering him for a month now may account for some of his cooling off. Then again, he simply couldn't keep up the pace he set right after the break. But the question is this: should the Mets 15-day DL him now, and give the inflammation a chance to go down? Does having him play on the sore knee risk something worse happening?
2) Floyd's injuries are season ending.
If Cliff can't come back, Wright loses a lot of protection. Even though Floyd's numbers this year have been terrible, opposing managers still give him more respect than Valentin. You saw this yesterday with Delgado being walked to get to Valentin. The same will be happening to Wright if Valentin's hitting 6th. Endy Chavez has also been doing a great job filling in, but since Milledge doesn't appear major-league ready, he's going to be spending a lot of time in RF, especially once the post-season hits.
3) LoDuca GambleGate heats up.
First he was betting on ponies. Then he was playing high stakes poker on team trips. Then he made some casino trips. Today we're reading about how he had bookies seeking payments for his debts, first calling the Marlins front office (!), then showing up at Shea during batting practice to confront Paul from the stands. If it turns out that MLB digs up evidence that LoDuca's been betting illegally (which seems certain), or worse, that he has bet on baseball, we will most probably lose him for the season and longer. He can't be replaced in our lineup.
4) Wagner's recent struggles continue
Recent struggles you say? He had 4 blown saves in the first half, but only one in the second half, going 8 for 9. He's been at his best recently, right? Well forget about save %. Completely unimportant right now. What I'm concerned with is the batting average against. Opponents were hitting .190 against Billy before the break. They're hitting him at a .250 clip since. And so far in August, the BAA is .368. He's getting saves by hook or by crook, but his stuff is too good for that. He should be blowing batters away, as he was in the first half.
Pitchers, like hitters, go through hot streaks and cold streaks, so the past 3 weeks could just be a lull for Billy. But if we go into late September and his second half BAA is over .300, that doesn't bode well.
I guess the noteworthy positive is that the starting rotation doesn't make the "worry list." Pedro looks healthy and strong. Glavine's not been at his best, but he's a professional, and I trust he'll get to where he needs to be for the post season. Duque and Trashel are doing what they do when they're going well, and Duque in particular looks like he'll be ready to throw some good innings in October.
And speaking of Duque, that Benson trade's looking pretty great right now, huh? We turned him into Duque (via Jorge Julio) and John Maine. Duque's arguably as good as Benson now, and has more post-season experience, which this team needs. And Maine looks like he could be a solid long term addition.
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2 comments:
Good observations..
1. If there is any chance that Beltran's knee gets worse with continued playing, I say 15 day DL him. I hate to lose his bat and threat in the lineup, but better now than in playoffs when we really need it. If we expect to have any chance to win WS, he's going to have to be a big part of it (notice he's one of the few players on the team who's done well against good pitchers this year, notably in red sox series when the rest of mets were mailing it in).
2. Floyd is done. Whether he comes back this season or not, for all intents and purposes his season (and maybe career) are done. I would love nothing more than to add the cliff floyd of '05 to our lineup. But it ain't gonna happen. Sure, he can crush a HR here and there, but we will not get any consistent contribution from him. Maybe he could serve as a pinch hitter.
3. This is to me the BIGGEST concern. Even if he is not formally charged with anything or found guilty, it still has the potential to negatively impact what is (seemingly) a relatively "clean" low-key clubhouse.
4. BAA increase is a cause of concern, although I am not as dismissive of sv %. To me this is an important stat, lessened only somewhat by the fact that he does inherit a lot of 1-run-only leads. He's reminding me of Franco near the end, where every outing was an adventure. In the absolute worst case (which I don't see as a possibility, but let's consider hypothetically anyway) if he fell apart for some reason you could re-jigger the bullpen and eliminate the closer position and simply have set-up guys or middle guys pitch two innings each. Not ideal, but then again you're only talking about 7 games for WS anyway.
I'm a little more hopeful with Floyd than you, but time will tell. Beltran to the DL makes sense if his knee is bothering him. We built this huge lead, we might as well use it.
The clubhouse may or may not be "clean", but it is definitely not "low key". Check out the SI article (which got the cover) on the Mets from 6 weeks ago. These guys are boisterous and rip on each other constantly (hence the title of the article, "Rip City"). Willie seems to do a good job keeping it in-house though.
You could always re-jigger the pen and share closing duties, and there might be enough live arms that the Mets could get away with it. The reason I discount save %, to a point, is the fact that the sample size is so small. He's had less than 30 save opportunities. That means if he'd have gotten two more saves, he'd probably be in the top 5 in save percentage. And you and I both know the difference between a Sv and a BlSv may be inches on one pitch. That's why the BAA is to me, a better indication of performance for a guy who only pitches an inning at a time. Bigger sample size. If he's getting an out around 75% of all plate appearances, that tells me the chance of the other team stringing together a rally is a lot smaller than if he's only getting an out around 2/3 of plate appearances (difference of a WHIP of 1 and 1.5).
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