All advice and opinion offered in this blog should be followed to the letter by Alderman, Collins, and all uniformed members of the Mets.
Sunday, August 20, 2006
Billy billy billy
So I happened to check the league leaders in Saves in the NL, and it turns out Wagner's tied w/ Hoffman for the league lead with 31. Of those with 10 or more saves (15 pitchers), he's also 3rd in ERA (trailing only Hoffman and Saito).
He's climbing in sv %age too, to 14th in majors. I still think this stat is key, because at the end of the day it is the single summary of his performance: how effectively did he do his job?
Most important thing will be how he does in playoffs (and in tight division games in future years assuming we don't sit on 14 game cushions!) If he locks things down in those situations, he's well worth the money. Of course, it would be nice if the bats could spot him more than a one-run lead too.
14th in the majors, trailing guys with 8 saves in 9 opportunities? Tell me how many of the 13 guys leading him you'd actually prefer to have. Saw Papelbon did a nice job last night with his team's season going down the drain.
actually, of all 13 guys leading wagner in sv %, the least number of save attempts is 21, most guys have 30 or more opportunities just like wagner. So there are no bogus padded percentages in there, which is why I think the stat is even more valid.
Check out http://snap.stats.com/premium/sfa/stats/leaders.asp
All right, I hate to engage in tedious old arguments, but I'll take the bait. In the NL Wagner's sixth in save %.
(I know we live in the era of interleague play, but since when do we ever compare stats interleague? NL Batting Champion, Al Champion, no ML batting champion)
Let's look at who's in front of him: 1 Mike Gonzalez Pit 1.000 ( 21/21 ) 2 Joe Borowski Fla .903 ( 28/31 ) 3 Trevor Hoffman SD .889 ( 32/36 ) 4 Chad Cordero Was .885 ( 23/26 ) 5 Tom Gordon Phi .871 ( 27/31 ) 6 Billy Wagner
Heading into the post season, would you rather have any of these guys, except for Hoffman, closing for your team? Chad Cordero, who gives up more long balls than Wagner? Gordon, whose 95 years old and has arm problems? Joe Borowski? I mean, Borowski has a nice arm, but would you feel more comfortable in a big spot in the Series if Willie raised his arm and Joe Borowski came trotting to the mound? Finally there's Mike Gonzalez. Great sv %, no way around it. But he's in his first year as a closer. He's walking a ton of batters. And if being a closer is all about dealing with pressure, he hasn't exactly been running the gauntlet in Pittsburgh. They're one of the worst teams in the MLB. None of their games matter. And they have like, one beat writer who covers the team. And they draw 10 fans a game. He might have the potential to be a great closer, but he hasn't proven anything to me yet. Just like a Papelbon, you can get tons of saves, have a real live arm, and fail your team when all the chips are down.
This isn't to say Wagner is the be all and end all. He's blown leads. He's blown leads in big games in the post season. But he's been one of the leagues best for many years and has gotten teams to the post season, and that means something. No other pitcher on the list other than Hoffman can say that.
If the Mets front office could build the bionic closer and place him on the roster, it would not be Wagner. Unfortunatley, Omar had to pick from the real live bodies out there, and it's hard to argue that I'd rather have any of these other guys on the NL save % list (except Hoffman, who I'm sure wasn't available).
Point 1: I'd agree Wagner was best available closer when Mets grabbed him, and he's also an enormous upgrade over Looper. So I think getting him was a great move, no question.
Point 2: That said, I don't think he's been in top 5 this year, and he's pitched himself into more jams than I expected. (Again though, for me key is how he performs in playoffs: if he can lock things down then, he's worth a fortune.) I included AL in the list for two reasons: one is that those are "available" players that there's no reason not to consider. Two is that if anything, AL relievers (and pitchers in general) have a harder time than in NL due to DH. So better pitching stats in AL are that much more impressive (especially this year!)
Point 3: If they were available, players I'd take over Wagner: Joe Nathan, Bobby Jenks, Mariano Rivera, B.J. Ryan, and Hoffman.
Well, if you feel that way, you have a gripe. Since the Mets signed Wagner in lieu of Ryan, they could've had one of the guys you'd prefer.
That works out well for you, since Ryan (who last I saw was having a tremendous year) will be sitting home in October, while Wagner will be trying to protect small leads against the best lineups in baseball. Should give you plenty of fodder for "if we only had BJ Ryan!" rants come the playoffs.
The rest of your list is interesting: Rivera, no question. Hoffman, no question. Of course neither one will ever be available until they are old enough that they're getting knocked around the park.
Nathan's also interesting, b/c IIRC, we were considering getting him from the Giants (by trade or signing, I don't remember) a few years back. I think it was when we decided to sign Looper. That was a nice call.
I haven't seen Jenks or Nathan pitch enough this year to really compare them to Wagner. But you're right, Billy has definitely been walking the line in a lot of his saves. When it comes down to it, I think you'll see the same thing in the post season. It's not so much that I'm expecting him to raise his game, I'm sure he'll be walking the line in the playoffs as well. But unlike less experienced pitchers, I don't expect him to be overwhelmed b/c he's been there before.
He's also an old-fashioned S.O.B., which I have to appreciate.
7 comments:
He's climbing in sv %age too, to 14th in majors. I still think this stat is key, because at the end of the day it is the single summary of his performance: how effectively did he do his job?
Most important thing will be how he does in playoffs (and in tight division games in future years assuming we don't sit on 14 game cushions!) If he locks things down in those situations, he's well worth the money. Of course, it would be nice if the bats could spot him more than a one-run lead too.
yeah, but i've heard he gives up home runs in big games.
14th in the majors, trailing guys with 8 saves in 9 opportunities? Tell me how many of the 13 guys leading him you'd actually prefer to have. Saw Papelbon did a nice job last night with his team's season going down the drain.
actually, of all 13 guys leading wagner in sv %, the least number of save attempts is 21, most guys have 30 or more opportunities just like wagner. So there are no bogus padded percentages in there, which is why I think the stat is even more valid.
Check out http://snap.stats.com/premium/sfa/stats/leaders.asp
All right, I hate to engage in tedious old arguments, but I'll take the bait. In the NL Wagner's sixth in save %.
(I know we live in the era of interleague play, but since when do we ever compare stats interleague? NL Batting Champion, Al Champion, no ML batting champion)
Let's look at who's in front of him:
1 Mike Gonzalez Pit 1.000 ( 21/21 )
2 Joe Borowski Fla .903 ( 28/31 )
3 Trevor Hoffman SD .889 ( 32/36 )
4 Chad Cordero Was .885 ( 23/26 )
5 Tom Gordon Phi .871 ( 27/31 )
6 Billy Wagner
Heading into the post season, would you rather have any of these guys, except for Hoffman, closing for your team? Chad Cordero, who gives up more long balls than Wagner? Gordon, whose 95 years old and has arm problems? Joe Borowski? I mean, Borowski has a nice arm, but would you feel more comfortable in a big spot in the Series if Willie raised his arm and Joe Borowski came trotting to the mound? Finally there's Mike Gonzalez. Great sv %, no way around it. But he's in his first year as a closer. He's walking a ton of batters. And if being a closer is all about dealing with pressure, he hasn't exactly been running the gauntlet in Pittsburgh. They're one of the worst teams in the MLB. None of their games matter. And they have like, one beat writer who covers the team. And they draw 10 fans a game. He might have the potential to be a great closer, but he hasn't proven anything to me yet. Just like a Papelbon, you can get tons of saves, have a real live arm, and fail your team when all the chips are down.
This isn't to say Wagner is the be all and end all. He's blown leads. He's blown leads in big games in the post season. But he's been one of the leagues best for many years and has gotten teams to the post season, and that means something. No other pitcher on the list other than Hoffman can say that.
If the Mets front office could build the bionic closer and place him on the roster, it would not be Wagner. Unfortunatley, Omar had to pick from the real live bodies out there, and it's hard to argue that I'd rather have any of these other guys on the NL save % list (except Hoffman, who I'm sure wasn't available).
Point 1: I'd agree Wagner was best available closer when Mets grabbed him, and he's also an enormous upgrade over Looper. So I think getting him was a great move, no question.
Point 2: That said, I don't think he's been in top 5 this year, and he's pitched himself into more jams than I expected. (Again though, for me key is how he performs in playoffs: if he can lock things down then, he's worth a fortune.) I included AL in the list for two reasons: one is that those are "available" players that there's no reason not to consider. Two is that if anything, AL relievers (and pitchers in general) have a harder time than in NL due to DH. So better pitching stats in AL are that much more impressive (especially this year!)
Point 3: If they were available, players I'd take over Wagner: Joe Nathan, Bobby Jenks, Mariano Rivera, B.J. Ryan, and Hoffman.
Well, if you feel that way, you have a gripe. Since the Mets signed Wagner in lieu of Ryan, they could've had one of the guys you'd prefer.
That works out well for you, since Ryan (who last I saw was having a tremendous year) will be sitting home in October, while Wagner will be trying to protect small leads against the best lineups in baseball. Should give you plenty of fodder for "if we only had BJ Ryan!" rants come the playoffs.
The rest of your list is interesting: Rivera, no question. Hoffman, no question. Of course neither one will ever be available until they are old enough that they're getting knocked around the park.
Nathan's also interesting, b/c IIRC, we were considering getting him from the Giants (by trade or signing, I don't remember) a few years back. I think it was when we decided to sign Looper. That was a nice call.
I haven't seen Jenks or Nathan pitch enough this year to really compare them to Wagner. But you're right, Billy has definitely been walking the line in a lot of his saves. When it comes down to it, I think you'll see the same thing in the post season. It's not so much that I'm expecting him to raise his game, I'm sure he'll be walking the line in the playoffs as well. But unlike less experienced pitchers, I don't expect him to be overwhelmed b/c he's been there before.
He's also an old-fashioned S.O.B., which I have to appreciate.
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