Well, we've hit it a bit earlier than in recent years, but the meltdown is upon us. Every time the Mutts have a winning streak to take first, they choke it right back with ridiculous injuries, poor playing, and meltdowns by their best players at the worst times. Wright's slump is of course perfectly timed with the injuries to Beltran, Delgado and Reyes. Santana has lost a bit of his dominance at the same time.
And the injuries and sickness keep on coming.
Silly me, I thought having the #1 payroll in NL for several years running would buy more than a 90 win team. This year, it might not even buy that.
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And a team that is absolutely decimated by illness and injury right now has managed to win 7 of 11 (and 5 of 8)...even the 86 crew only won 2 out of every 3...
And we're still on top of the division (don't get nitpicky over a 1/2 game lead or trail here and there).
Could they have won a bunch more games already this year--sure. But so could every other team. It's the nature of the game.
Yes, Putz has turned into Heilman but Parnell has emerged and should start being used accordingly.
Is Wright in a slump? Yes--but he's expected to single-handedly provide all the o for a team of back-ups and minor leaguers. And after the May he had, he was bound to cool off (you're never as good as you are when you're hot, and never as bad as you are when you're cold).
The bottom line is that this is a part of baseball. We'll get guys back from injury and illness, probably swing a trade to bring in some help, and as a result guys will settle into more comfortable roles.
The sky is not falling...
I'd agree with you, except $140 M ought to buy a lot more than slightly above average.
This is the same team of ~90 wins, year in and year out. Nothing changes, it's a broken record. What does all that extra payroll get us? Nothing. We should easily be putting up over 96 wins each year with our bloated payroll and in so doing not have to sweat small losing streaks here and there.
Unfortunately, we continue to struggle for a share of first place with teams that are spending $25-50 M less than us. We continue to play sloppy, lazy baseball. We continue to get racked by injuries.
Which gets me to my main point: the makeup of this team sucks. IMO Omar has failed in a major way. He was allowed to have a huge payroll, yet this team is nothing special. Let's be honest: any one of us, if allowed to have the top payroll in NL, could easily put together a 90-win team that would be competitive in NL East. That is not hard. What is hard is putting together a winning team, and after 4+ years I'm not seeing any moves in the right direction.
Looks like the move to get Putz out of the 8th inning and into the 7th has already paid off, in the form of 2 runs.
I go back to my earlier comments from last December: My feelings about the Putz deal rest entirely on whether we get another legit starter or not. Putz is definitely not worth the chance to get a legit #2 to back up Johan. Too many question marks around Maine and Perez and full seasons.
SHK, quotes are unnecessary. We know you favored getting the second starter to the reliever.
I, personally, favored getting both.
In either case, it was finances that kept us from getting Lowe, and I've yet to hear about any other available starter that would have provided a meaningful upgrade.
We could still get both, if Putz's surgery actually helps (big ?) and if the Mets can trade prospects for a frontline starter, a la Peavy (also a big ? as we have no prospects).
The reality here is this team, if healthy, would probably be 5 games up on the division.
There's definitely been some bad luck. Eight guys who were expected to be regular contributors (Delgado, Beltran, Church, Schneider, Reyes, Putz, Cora and Redding) have all missed significant time. That's a difficult burden for any team to overcome.
Now I will say this--I like this team's psychological makeup better without Reyes and Delgado than with it. With those two out of the way, Wright is the clear leader on the diamond, and it sets a much better tone for the team. But without Delgado at first (especially the was he was hitting pre-injury), the rest of the lineup has been affected.
To D.C.'s earlier point, perhaps the best possible trade for this team would be to go get Gonazalez and Peavy, but I can't imagine San Diego would move them both. If so, that would be a huge boost for our rotation and lineup.
Reyes, Delgado (we pick up most of the $ for the rest of the season), Niese and F Mart, for Gonzalez, Peavy, and Cliff Floyd.
I would say that unless this team falls behind by 10 or more games, there is practically no chance that Omar will part with any of his guys. I think trading Reyes and Delgado would be a step in the right direction, but unfortunately I really can't imagine any circumstances under which Omar would part with either of them, especially Reyes.
The overwhelmingly most likely scenario is that Omar continues to nibble at the edges by picking up bit players and hoping to turn them into all-stars. There's no question it's unbelievable value and exciting baseball when you get a Tatis or Livan who defies expectations. However, IMO that type of player is too large a percentage of the Mets roster, and we're asking for too many things to break our way against all odds.
For me right now, the only players who should be considered untouchable on this team are Johan, K-rod, Wright and Parnell. I'd probably try to keep Pelfrey off the table if possible, but if necessary I'd include him in a trade. We need a corner OF with power, and a starter.
Blame it on injuries, bad luck or whatever, but to me this is more of the past few years. I think meltdowns like that of '07 and '08 weigh extremely heavily on a team and damage the collective psyche for more than one season. You can see it in the way the team plays tight. IMO, a major shakeup will be required to break out of that mentality and get them to the WS.
Pelf is an interesting case. Who would you rather starting game 3 in the LDS, Maine or Pelfrey?
Now Pelfrey has superior stuff, is younger, cheaper, hasn't had any injuries, and has a much higher top end.
But... Pelf always seems a walk and a hit away from coming unglued. Maine is a lot more unflappable. Plus, Maine is starting to mix in his secondary pitches more effectively. Many pitchers only really start to master their craft as the get into their 30's. Boomer Wells comes to mind. He went from serviceable early in his career to a gamer in the second half of his career. He didn't have dominating stuff at any point, but even against top flight opposition in the post season you thought he'd give his team a chance to win.
As far as "where the fault lies", I don't think this is as complicated as we're making it. By all rights the Mets should've won the division the past two years, and possibly the WS in '06. The talent was there. Is there really any doubt when you're up 7 games with 13 to play (or whatever silliness it was) that you've won the division? When you lose 80% of your games in the last two weeks of the season you have choked.
This team choked. Twice. That's not a talent issue. That's a character issue, as we've said many times before. The core should've been revamped, b/c I have no doubt that we'll burst in Aug and fade in Sept again this year. What's the definition of insanity again? (oh yeah, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result).
Unfortunately, as we also agreed earlier this year, you can't "change the core" midseason. I don't think. My Peavy-Gonzalez suggestion (which was actually D.C.'s suggestion) would be a way to do it, but I just don't see it happening. Peavy would almost certainly veto with his no-trade, even if the Pods were willing to move Gonzalez, which the indication is they are not.
Plus Reyes' value is at a multi-year low, as everyone is reminded of the fact that his career will peak at a below average age, since his value is completely tied up in his speed, and chances are his wheels will break down early. Getting Reyes healthy, Murphy hitting again, and F Mart back to AAA (where he belongs) killing the ball is integral to having the chips to do a deal.
What's the definition of insanity again? (oh yeah, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result).
Unfortunately, as we also agreed earlier this year, you can't "change the core" midseason.
Totally agreed on both points, which is yet another reason why I think Omar is not a good GM. Changes to the core should've been made heading into the season, instead of banking on too many long-shot scenarios that we've discussed extensively before (e.g., no injuries to Delgado / Church / Beltran; Castillo is productive; at least 2 of Pelf/Maine/Perez are solid all season; etc.)
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