This one gets easier and easier.
Clearly Ollie's head is shot. And his arm doesn't seem much better right now. I've been an advocate of sending Pelf down to the minors for the Steve Trachsel Reclamation Special but Perez needs it waaaaay more.
To further clarify the issue, Pelf and Vargas are both pitching well and Vargas is out of options so we'd be guaranteed to lose him. Muniz has options but has pitched well (last night being the exception but at that point, who cared?), so why mess with guys getting the job done?
I can't seem to wrap my head around what Ollie's major problem is--poor mechanics, lack of focus, concerns about performing in a contract year (doesn't explain past seasons though). Maybe Omar should offer him some kind of deal now for fair money, i.e. 4th or 5th starter cash, and take some pressure off of him. Let him feel like he's gotta work for his supper and maybe he'll feel the hunger...
On the other hand, maybe he just plain sucks. Pittsburgh gave up on him for crying out loud and he was pitching much better for them. Where do we draw the line? We have reached the point of "fish or cut bait" and something's gotta change...
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The fact is, this is a difficult problem due in large part to the fact that Omar was chasing a lot of diamond in the rough or lightning in a bottle type pitchers. Here's what you have:
1. Johan is good, consistently.
2. Perez is consistently inconsistent, and appears to be getting worse on average.
3. Maine appears to be getting more consistent, but still is not quite driven or focused or talented enough to be #2.
4. Pedro is a huge question mark.
5. All others are no good.
So you have a legit #1, a legit #3 (who can often pitch like legit #2), and that's about it. All you can do is keep shuffling pieces around and hope you don't roll Lima time. At the end of the day Vargas, Muniz, Wise, Pelf, etc. all have miserable track records, so I don't see much difference. Maybe I'd give Pelf the nod just because he's 'supposed' to be better at some point, I'm just not sure when.
My biggest concern last year and into offseason was that Mets front office put WAY too much stock in Pedro, Duque, Perez, and Pelf. They were way too confident that these guys would be healthy and pitch consistently, and all show improvement from '07. Just not probable.
It's compounded by the fact that you just knew that Wright - Beltran - Delgado would never again collectively put up the big #s they did in '06. So you have a weaker lineup on top of weaker pitching. The result is what you've seen for almost 160 straight games now: a team that gives up exactly as many runs as it scores, and is thus playing .500 ball.
If Pedro has a rough outing tonight, I think that is going to have some reverberations for the next week or two. I would imagine the Mets players are really banking on a boost from Pedro, and if they don't get it, I expect some dejected, down play for a while. On the flip side, if Pedro can give them 5-6 innings of 1-2 run ball tonight, I think that could give the team a huge boost in confidence to continue playing well.
So what do they do? Send Muniz down and keep Ollie around.
The predictable and stupid option.
Just another example of my ability to pick 'em...
I wasn't around when this post was timely, but I have a couple of comments:
1. brilliant post, DC
2. Every time SHK writes "Lima time", I giggle. Lima Time is only a slight step up (in baseball terms) from "the basement meal plan" in Cormac Mccarthy's "The Road."
3. Pelf is a legit #5 guy right now. He's got no business in the minors so long as the Mets win 1 out of 3 games he starts.
4. When the Pirates give up on you, that's when you know you're Mets-ready.
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