No-han

If this deal for Johan Santana goes through I am done watching baseball.

It is bad enough if he goes to the BlowSox, b/c it guarantees them at least a 5-year dynasty on top of the Pats. But if the Twins really are willing to part with Santana for the pitifully low return of Crisp, Lester, Lowrie, and a 4th bogus player, that is so far beyond absurd it makes Cone for Hearn look like an even pick 'em. I can't even begin to describe how irate I will be if the Sox can land Santana and give up so little in return.

Coco Crisp, while a great CF defensively, offensively STINKS. Lester, while a good prospect, is hardly their top pitching prospect (Buchholz, Papelbon, and recently-traded Gabbard are all higher). And I've never even heard of Lowrie. If Sox can get Santana without having to give up at least one of Buchholz and Ellsbury it is beyond shameful. It would be like the Mets offering a package of Shawn Green, Mike Carp, and Heilman to get Santana. I am so bothered by this report, I can only hope it's a bogus rumor someone floated, maybe by the Twins so the Yankees would up their ante.

Santana

It seems increasingly unlikely we will get Santana, I go back to my earlier post that I don't think we have enough chips to trade compared to Yankees and Sox, both of which are also pursuing Santana. That said, the Twins' asking price is possibly too high for both the Yanks and Sox; I'm not sure either team wants to part with as many of their top prospects as the Twins want. However, the Yankees (having already lost Daisuke to Sox) cannot afford to let Santana go to Sox. A rotation of Beckett, Santana, Schilling, Daisuke, and Wakefield all but guarantees WS for several years in a row. (And that assumes Sox have to part with top prospects Buccholz and Lester to get Santana; if not, they are even stronger.) So Yankees will probably have to bite the bullet if they think Sox are really going to get him.

I'd like to see us talk trade with TB for Kazmir.

Jimmy Rollins...

...you magnificent d-bag. You start the season by proclaiming the Phillies are the team to beat, support your seemingly preposterous claim all season by making the Mets the Phillies' whipping boy and taking 1st place in NL East, and then end the season by taking home the NL MVP. Well played sir, well played.

Mets resign Castillo for 4 years

I like Luis Castillo. He was once an excellent player. He is still a good player.

But Eckstein would have been such a great fit, I'm feeling the let down right now.

On top of that, Castillo looked like his chronic hip and knee problems were downright debilitating at times this season. I think it's a huge gamble to think he'll be playing at a high level in 3 years. Here's hoping he comes back in April looking rejuvinated.

Bor-a$$

I am so glad to see that Bor-ass' latest over-the-top move is blowing up in his face. First, to tell the Yankees that unless they were willing to start discussions at $350 M, don't even talk to A-rod, is outrageous. Which teams exactly does Boras thinks have the money and the interest in signing one particular player up for >$35 M/yr for 10 years? That's insane, practically no teams have a payroll that could afford that, let alone want to do that. Boras is an idiot and he's getting what he deserved - no interest. He thought he could strong-arm the Yankees into some ridiculously inflated deal and it isn't going to happen. I hope A-rod has to sign for less than he was already making.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, A-rod's regular season #s really are not that much greater than several other players, all of whom are paid less than half of what a-rod is asking for. I'm sorry, but A-rod is not worth 2x Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Vlad Guerrero, etc. Especially when you consider that he stinks in the playoffs. His post-season performance is simply unacceptable at the salary he's asking for.

FA Market

So far Posada's been signed, Lowell was not, Glavine was not. Since the Mets apparently are no longer interested in Lo Duca, this means they must be banking on getting Torrealba. I understand that PLD is getting up there in years, but Torrealba's #s are underwhelming at best, and he's no better fielding or throwing runners out. So I'm not sure how this helps the team, unless there was some behind-the-scenes stuff where they don't think PLD is a good fit in the clubhouse.

I doubt we're bringing back Glavine. Braves want him, and that's where he'd rather be. It's where he's always wanted to be.

I think the Mets have zero chance of getting Santana, if the Yankees are serious about pursuing him. The Yankees have much better younger pitchers they can offer in return; last season had to reduce the trade value of Pelfrey and Humber. Apparently Milledge is still high on people's wish lists, and perhaps Gomez as well. But I just don't think we have the raw number of quality young players to get into a serious bidding war for Johan. I'm not sure where that leaves us, it means we have to go after Haren or Oswalt hard. As an alternative, maybe we could do a deal with the Sox. They desperately need a CF who can hit, perhaps they'd be interested in Milledge in exchange for some young pitching. On the other hand, Sox will probably just sign Torii as a free agent, costing them nothing in players.

I think there's a better than 50% chance that we don't make any major moves in this offseason. The only way we could land a blockbuster deal (i.e., Johan) is if we were willing to part with Jose-jose-jose, and that's not going to happen. I think Minaya is banking heavily on Pelf or Humber stepping up in a major way in '08. Rotation: Pedro - Duque - Maine - Perez - Pelf, with Humber waiting in the wings.

Gammons says Wright should stay put

In this love note to David, Gammons lays out the case for why Wright should not be asked to switch positions for anyone, including A-Rod. I should note that I somewhat discount Gammons opinions b/c he's still relatively new to the game of baseball.

...it is hard to understand what the Mets were thinking when they treated their best player as if he were Damion Easley. Move David Wright to second base? Puh-leaze. Not only did he win the Gold Glove at third this season, but he's never played second base, even going back to AAU ball when Ryan Zimmerman had to switch to second because Wright was the third baseman. Left field? Absurd. Wright is, along with Zimmerman, one of the two best defensive third basemen in the National League. And while A-Rod is very good, his range factor was below that of Miguel Cabrera.

Is Wright ever going to be a 50-home run hitter? Probably not, especially at Shea Stadium. But look at Wright's career offensive numbers compared to A-Rod's through age 24:

_Rodriguez Wright
BA .308 .311
OBP .363 .388
SLG .551 .533
OPS .914 .921
HR 148 97

This is not about Wright vs. Rodriguez, because they are both great players, and Rodriguez at first base with Wright at third and Jose Reyes at short would be a spectacular combination. But Wright, at 24, accepted every responsibility when the Mets struggled down the stretch. While the majority of his teammates practically hid out and ducked under tables in the players' lounge, Wright was there to answer the tough questions. "I feel," he said one day, "that it is my responsibility."

Granted, Rodriguez was a Gold Glove shortstop who moved to third base, but he initiated the action to get out of Texas. And when the Yankees took a hard line in regards to his negotiations with the players associated, he had no choice but to move over in respect for Derek Jeter. This is different. Wright is the Mets' best player; he's not moving to another position. He and Willie Randolph were the two people who stood and accepted the harsh music down the stretch, and after seeing how Randolph was carved up, now Wright has read that he is fungible.

With Tom Glavine likely gone, the Mets need pitching -- starting and relieving. Their starters weren't as bad as some think. They were second in the National League in quality starts and fifth in starters' ERA (4.40). But unless Pedro Martinez stages a miracle comeback, they really don't have a starter who'd be a No. 3 on an American League contender.

They also need Wright, his talent, his extraordinary character, his leadership, his face on the franchise's banners for the next decade. Which is why Jeff Wilpon owes his best player, big-time.

Mets lock up Marlon Anderson

for 2 yrs, $2.2 Mil (1.05+1.15).

At that price, a no brainer.

Some MetsGeek Thoughts on Humber

beerbourineman has the analysis in their "Prospect Geek" series. Here's some of the key quotes:

The PCL is extremely tough on pitchers. In fact, it contains some of the most hitter-friendly environments on the planet...

...[Humber's] overall numbers might not look impressive, but they are, due to the environment. In fact, that 1.24 WHIP led the PCL in 2007.

Conventional wisdom says that pitcher’s who undergo Tommy John surgery can take up to two full seasons to completely return to form (Kerry Wood, Erik Bedard, Dustin McGowan and Chris Capuano are examples of pitchers who follow this pattern). The most common problems that pitchers have to overcome post-TJ are losses of command and stamina. Humber has no problem with control, but those who followed his 2007 season can attest to the fact that he often started well, but wore down toward the end of starts...

The best comp for Humber in 2008 is one that Met fans would be very happy to see fulfilled: Dustin McGowan. McGowan, like Humber, was a fire-balling first round pick who was on the fast track to stardom before Tommy John surgery in 2004. After struggling in 2005 and 2006 to regain the feel of his pitches, McGowan had a breakout season in 2007, posting a 4.08 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, even coming within outs of posting a no-hitter against Colorado. McGowan also has a similar repertoire to Humber’s (or what Humber’s should be in 2008), pounding mid-90s fastballs high in the zone and relying on a sharp 12-to-6 curveball for strikeouts. Humber will be heading into 2008 as a 25-year-old, as McGowan did in 2007. I’ll predict a line of 14 wins, a 4.11 ERA, 167 strikeouts, 62 walks and 21 homers allowed over 184 innings, which would be a nice two-win upgrade over Tom Glavine.

And I don’t have to tell you all how valuable two wins can be.

The Hunt for Baseball in October...

...begins and perhaps ends for the Mets with the search for real starting pitching. Buster Olney has some comments on that front here.

I have to say I've read a lot of commentary by various people that there is concern whether Pelfrey will ever develop a solid, reliable 2nd and 3rd pitch, necessary if he is to become a truly dominant starting pitcher. If not, he certainly would make an outstanding reliever. I understand the Mets don't want to relegate him to the bullpen unless/until they've decided that's his fate in life since he'd be losing the stamina necessary as a SP by only working out of pen, but at some point they will need to make this call. If he's not a legit SP, trade him or move him to pen. They certainly made this call very early on for Heilman, against his strong wishes otherwise.

Mets snag 2 NL Gold Gloves

Beltran, his second, and Wright, his first.

More here.

Mets keep Alou, Easley

From the NY Post's Mets blog:

Two of the oldest Mets will be back for another season at Shea.
The team today announced it has picked up its $7.5 million option on 41-year-old outfielder Moises Alou for 2008 and re-signed soon-to-be 38-year-old free agent infielder Damion Easley to a one-year, $950,000 contract.

From the Post blog's comments:

whats the matter omar, AARP didnt have any other players for the other positions? to sign a soon to be 42 yr old leftfielder who plays half a season to a 7.5 m contract is irresponsible. he WILL get hurt AGAIN, as he ALWAYS does. omar minaya is proving to be one of the worst gm's in all of baseball.

Posted by: dc on October 31, 2007 09:03 PM

I have to disagree (resigning your best hitter statistically can never be that bad a move at 7.5), but the AARP line made me chuckle.