I'm sure there are a lot of good trades the Mets could make in the offseason that will improve their chances in '08; I certainly haven't thought through them. However, here's one off the top of my head that might make a lot of sense. Pick up Torii Hunter and trade Beltran to Red Sox. First, let's compare Hunter to Beltran to make sure we don't lose too much:
Hunter (career): .271 / .324 / 25 HR / 93 RBI / 88 R, age 32
Beltran (career): .280 / .354 / 29 HR / 107 RBI / 113 R, age 30
Hunter ('07): .287 / .334 / 28 HR / 107 RBI / 94 R
Beltran ('07): .276 / .353 / 33 HR / 112 RBI / 93 R
While Beltran has an edge, it's not huge, and their '07 production was very similar.
Now to the Red Sox. They are dying with the combo of Nancy Drew and Coco Crisp in OF. The run production stinks. While Manny is awesome and they look to have a super rookie in Ellsbury, they still need a good veteran offensive CF. While Coco is perhaps the best fielding CF I've seen this year, Sox wouldn't lose much defensively by switching to Beltran, and they'd gain a ridiculous amount of offense. So I'm sure if they don't get Torii themselves as FA, they'd love a trade for B-tran. In return, what do we get? Not sure exactly, but here are some attractive options:
Manny Delcarmen: RP, solid reliever, age 25. In '07: 44 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 41 Ks:17 BBs, 11 holds, 1 sv, 1 BLSV.
Clay Buccholz: SP, age 23, threw NH this year. In '07: 4 G, 22.7 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 22 Ks:10 BBs, 0 HR. One of Sox's top pitching prospects.
Dustin Pedroia: rookie 2B, likely to win AL rookie of the year, age 24. In '07: .317 / .380 / 8 HR / 50 RBI / 86 R. Turned 78 DP with .990 fielding % (5th best of all MLB 2B).
Kevin Youkilis: 1B, age 28. Career: .280 / .383 / 15 HR / 79 RBI / 93 R. Perfect 1.000 fielding %, 0 errors in '07. We could dump Delgado and his huge salary.
4 comments:
Oh, and one more point about Youkilis. I think on Fox last night they mentioned that he lead the majors in pitches per plate appearance this year, a stat and (more importantly) hitting approach the Mets could absolutely benefit from.
That said, unfortunately I think it is highly unlikely the Sox would trade him. They get great production from him, he's got great upside, and he's an absolute fan favorite. He's probably #2 or 3 right behind Beckett on the list of players Sox are unlikely to trade for anyone.
I'd love to get Youkilis or Pedroia. But Beltran is a superior player to Hunter, and it's not that close. When looking at Beltran's better power #'s, don't forget that Hunter also has played his whole career in the Homerdome and that Shea is where power hitters go to die. Would the Sox take on Beltran's huge contract?
I think trading Beltran is one of the least likely things to happen this offseason, both because it's unlikely the Mets could upgrade the OF if they move him, and there are very few teams that would willing to take on his salary.
Sox could eat Beltran's salary, especially if it allowed them to drop JD Drew and his absurd salary (he is 2nd highest paid player on Sox, what a crock!) Beltran's salary is high, although I'm not sure it's unreasonable given his #s. Certainly if Mets ate even a few M that would make him well worth it to another team.
Hunter is definitely a drop-off compared to Beltran, but I figure if Milledge improves and we had Youk or Pedroia's #s on top of that, it would make up for Beltran. Bottom line is we need a big boost in pitching, and I'm guessing we don't have the cards to get Santana. So that doesn't leave us with much: try to get D-train and hope to turn him around; hope that Kaz goes for arbitration and TB looks to deal; or give up a solid vet where we have some depth potentially (OF) to get a good pitching in return.
BTW, I'm assuming Delgado's #s continue to plummet next year, not just avg but also power. If so, it makes Youk's #s that much more attractive, assuming we are comparing him to a fading aging Delgado rather than a re-emergent productive Delgado (who's #s are hard for anyone to top). If Delgado's drop in #s this year is more a reflection of some one-time thing (injury) and he returns to '06 form, we'll be in great shape next year.
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