As I think about it more, I am leaning strongly against trading Reyes (unless some ridiculously obvious trade presented itself, i.e. Reyes for Santana straight up). I think the Mets should continue to build around the trio of Reyes-Wright-Beltran, but they need to really sit down with Reyes in a few weeks and have a serious conversation. First, they need to understand what happened in the 2nd half of the season. Was his dropoff in production due solely to fatigue (as people speculated about Wright last year after HR derby)? If so, then they need to adjust next year so that he's not playing 160 games and attempting 99 SBs. If it wasn't due to fatigue, then it's due to approach and plate discipline. On the positive side his SOs have held steady at ~80 for 3 years, while his BBs have increased. However, he had way too many fly ball outs. I think they need to adjust his swing and approach (this is true for a lot of the team, but especially Reyes). They need to set a target for Reyes of .310+ BA and .390+ OBP. All he should be thinking about all season is how to maintain those #s. Forget the HRs and 3Bs, focus on hitting singles and if possible stretching them into doubles. It probably wasn't helpful that at the end of '06 Willie made a comment that he could see Reyes being a 20-25 HR guy. I'm sure that enters his thinking and swinging. In any case, if they lay down the law with him and force him to focus on BA and OBP, he will be dominant.
I would say do what you need to do to pick up Santana, then have Santana / Pedro / Maine / Perez / Pelfrey. Put Duque in pen, try to pick up at least two other arms to replace Sele / Scho / Mota / Sosa or whoever is out. Keep Alou, get rid of Green and start Milledge in right. Endy and Gomez are subs, although Gomez could really use another full season at AAA IMO. Dump PLD, sign Posada and give Castro more PT. Whether or not you keep Castillo depends on what terms he wants; if too rich then dump him, and start Gotay for now. I would think though that if Castillo can continue to hit .290+ and give you solid defense, he's worth it. An infield of Wright, Gotay, and Delgado is probably too much of a defensive liability (unless gotay improves), you'll need to find a better 2B and 1B. Not sure where you do that though, since Teixeira isn't FA until '08 and will be resigned by Braves this year anyway.
If I had to guess though, no way we get Santana. We just don't have enough young proven prospects to make it happen. Twins will probably want Pelfrey, Humber, and Milledge / Gomez in return, at least. The problem is one of numbers: with practically no one good available as FA, we can't afford to give trade away all those players we are banking on to be starters next year. I don't think we can keep all of Green, Delgado, Alou, Duque, and Glavine. It's just a re-tread of the same team from the last two years, and they are not getting any younger or less likely to be injured. But who do you replace them with, if we have to trade Milledge, Pelfrey, etc.?
7 comments:
Dang, bro, you just threw a lot out on the table.
Let's take a look at some of your suggestions:
If you're keeping Reyes, you're not getting Santana, so throw that one out.
Now you have a rotation of Pedro/Duque/Maine/Perez/Pelf. As discussed, this probalby doesn't get it done, no matter what you do with the lineup. The chances of both Pedro and Duque throwing come post season is minimal. I can live with the situation where Willie can choose 2 of the 3 (betwen Maine/Perez/Pelf) and pick the hot hands come postseason, but if he has to go with all 3, that's severely limiting. We'll explore FA options later.
As for the lineup, you want:
RF Milledge
CF Beltran
LF Alou
3B Wright
SS Reyes
2B Castillo (let's say he comes cheap)
1B Delgado (As you say, no obvious replacements)
Posada
Bench:
Gotay
Castro (with more PT)
Chavez
Gomez (possibly at AAA)
Valentin? (team option @ $4.3Mil)
Obviously this bench would need to be upgraded, as there is no RH PH threat. But what is most noteworthy is that you really haven't changed the team with one exception: Posada for PLD. Assuming Castro's willing to come back and be a backup, and that the Mets are willing to pay him starter's cash to ride the pine, I'm all for having him come back.
Assuming Glavine and Posada's contracts will probably net out for '08, you've still shed Green's contract and PLD's contract, although some of that is going to go back to Castro. That should leave you enough cash to go after some back of the pen help, with Cordero being the obvious target right not (coming off the best season of his career at age 32).
So if the Mets wanted to stay cost neutral, they could bring back basically the same team, with younger but less proven arms in the rotation, and a closer-level reliever for the 8th inning (assuming we don't move Wagner), and basically the same lineup except for Posada (who's great but ancient by catcher's years, turning 37 next season).
Reyes
Castillo
Wright
Beltran
Posada
Delgado
Alou
Milledge
Pedro/Duque/Maine/Perez/Pelfrey
Looking at the lineup I distilled from your comments, it's fine. It's not all that different than this year's (maybe a slight upgrade, though I can't bank on Posada to repeat his season from this year that was way out of his historical norm). Then again, it's not the hitting that failed us down the stretch, but the rotation. Replacing Glavine with Pelfrey gets us younger, and is a good move for the long term. For 2008 though, it's hard to argue that that alone makes the rotation better.
We definitely need front line help, and it's gonna come in one of two ways: via trade (and you're not gonna get a proven #1 for prospects alone--so you're basically ruling that out), or from the FA market.
As discussed, I don't think there's a proven #1 in the FA market this year, so we'll look for the next best thing: a guy who might be ready to become a #1 guy, and jump up a level:
Kyle Lohse?
Came up big down the stretch for the Phils. A 29 year old who may just be hitting his stride as a starter. Fairly consistent average to above-average numbers over his 6.5 seasons as a starter.
Carlos Silva?
Only been a starter for 4 years, not too much mileage on this 28 year old arm. Has thrown 30 starts in 3 of last 4 years, 27 starts in the other. 4.21 ERA in AL projects well to the NL. K/9IP improved each season as a starter. Control is good, averaged just 1.6 BB/9 IP last year, and that was normal for his career. In '05, walked just 9 hitters in 188 IP. Big framed kid, at 6'4" 226.
Joel Pineiro?
A kid who came up in Seattle and did well. The league seemed to catch on to him around year 3-4 and everything went downhill pretty quick, until the BoSox totally gave up on him. Switched leagues, and pitched a strong half season for the Cards, as Met fans undoubtedly remember. Will the NL catch on to him too?
Joe Kennedy?
Big-framed lefty is young, but has already put up a mediocre track record and has had several franchises give up on him.
Jason Jennings?
Another 29 year old who seemed on the verge of taking a step up, posting a 3.78 ERA in 2006 before taking a big step back in '07. He was plagued by tendinitis last year, and if health returns, could be a contributor. Also an excellent hitting pitcher.
There are also the usual retreads:
Jaret Wright, Byung-Hyun Kim, Bartolo Colon, Matt Clement (not pitched since '06), Livan Hernandez (every dang year), Eric Milton, Tomo Okha, Jeff Weaver, Kip Wells.
As Fred Willard says, "I don't think so."
So if we go the FA route, and sign one of these younger pitchers who are a solid 3 now and hope they become a 1 or a 2, we'd have a rotation that looks like:
Pedro/Silva/Maine/Perez/Pelfrey
That's if management is willing to increase the overall player budget, as mentioned previously. If not, I'd just assume keep PLD or Castro and bring in a cheap backup catcher and sign an arm, than sign Posada.
Silva really looks look the best of this crop for a number of reasons. He's a control pitcher, so as he hits his 30's, you wouldn't expect his effectiveness too diminish drastically if he loses 1-3 MPH on his fastball. He gets by on challenging hitters and using movement on his sinking pitches to induce groundballs. As a big-framed guy, and not an especially hard thrower (low 90s), you'd think his arm has a lot of innings left in it. In a tight spot (including late season pressure games), you like to know you have a guy who can throw strikes and won't beat himself.
I haven't watched this guy pitch enough to say I think he can take the Mets to the next level, so that's still out there to be determined. But I do think he's the best FA available that I've looked at on paper, despite his very high BAA for his career (last year's was .287, and with 4 of the 5 mentioned between .279 and .287; Jennings was .301) and the fact that he led the AL in HR's against in '06. Shea will certainly help vs. the homer dome, with a slower infield and deeper fences.
Whew, if I threw a lot on the table you just buried it and broke it! A few thoughts.
1. No more re-treads. I'm sick of "lima time" and all that other garbage. I hope management focuses on pursuing legitimate talent in this offseason.
2. Looking at the season, you can blame both the hitting and the pitching. The pitching failed down the stretch, but the offense was non-existent over the first 4 months (7th or worse in NL). So if we had picked up a few extra runs here and there, that's 3-5 more wins at least.
3. Taking a closer look at offense, the question is whether the underperformance is due to: (a) the talent level simply is not as good as advertised and was overhyped, or (b) the talent is there, but was not properly executed. As you all know, I've been screaming all year that the problem is (b), and I think the Mets needed to have a new one torn about their poor plate discipline, inability to drive up pitch count, lack of adjustments in at-bat or inning to inning, etc. So if you believe this could be rectified with the appropriate top-down guidance (which I do), then I'm not necessarily opposed to keeping the basic core of players. That said, what we can't work around is age and injuries, so that's why I think it's too risky to keep all of Delgado, Alou, Green, PLD, Duque, and Glavine.
4. If we can't get a suitable package together for Santana (which seems unlikely as we discussed), then I think you have to look at the FA market in two ways. First, are above average players available at the positions you need? In most cases for mets this year the answer is unfortunately no as we've discussed. So that leaves you with option B, grab the top level talent available, avoid no-trade clauses, then trade them to someone who does have the position players you need. I would talk to Torii and Beltran and see if either would be willing to play RF or LF. If so, an outfield of Alou / Torii / Beltran with Milledge and Endy as backups would be awesome. If not, then grab Torii and try to turn right around and trade him. Eat some of his salary if you have to, but this is probably the only realistic way for the Mets to add the caliber of player they need, without losing too many players in return.
5. A lot of people on other sites have commented that all this team needs is a small patch here and there; after all we were only one game away from going to playoffs this year. I think that if your goal is simply to make NLDS, then this is probably a true statement. The Braves are somewhat constrained by budget now, and realistically with FA market not great I don't see Phils or Braves getting that much better in offseason. So Mets are just as likely to be NL East champs or wild card with minimal or no changes. However, that is a bogus goal in my mind, especially for a team with top payroll in the league. We should be putting together a team we think gives us a reasonable shot to win WS. I think if you want to take any realistic look at this current team, you can't honestly think we can compete with top AL teams in WS without some significant modifications, or even have a lot of confidence that we should make it to WS. I think we all commented during the season that even if we made it to playoffs, we were unlikely to make much noise this year. So, I think we will need to see at least 4 new pitchers (starters + relievers) as well as 2-3 new regular position players in lineup next year. I will count Pedro as one of the new pitchers.
6. The question of Maine / Perez / Pelf / Humber. First let's look at Maine and Perez. On average - and averages can be deceiving - they are both in the top 20 in NL in ERA, with Perez in top 10. When Perez is one, he has dominant strikeout stuff that rivals almost anyone in NL. HOWEVER, in order to qualify as a solid pitcher (at least in my mind), that's only half the equation. The other half is consistency, and both maine and perez have been quite poor in this regard. How much of Maine's inconsistency from start to start or inning to inning was due to injury? How much due to a lack of focus/discipline? If both of these are addressable, he could be a superb #3 guy, even very good #2. How about Perez - how does the same guy walk 7 batters in one game, throw 20 straight strikes in the next, then hit 3 batters in one inning? Is there any hope of losing the jekyll and hyde routine? If not, I'm afraid he's no better than a #4 or 5, despite having clear #1 ace-like stuff when he's on.
W.r.t. Pelfrey and Humber, the jury is still out of course. Both have apparently some pretty good out pitches, but perhaps not quite the control they need yet. Humber's ERA puts him #10 in PCL, but well out of top 30 in all of AAA. The mets could really use some pitchers who have solid strikeout / out pitches, to keep their pitch counts down, increase IP, and reduce taxing of bullpen. I'm just having a hard time seeing how a team that has a staff that throws 100 pitches by 6th inning is going to dominate anyone in playoffs. Pedro if healthy breaks that mold obviously, as do Maine and Perez IF they are focused and have control.
Nice job laying out the options for pitching Fredo..
Nothing jumps out as superb. Cordero has great #s in terms of ERA and K/9, yet has a lot of blown saves over his career. In addition, his home/away splits are not great (hideous for '07 in fact), he pitches much better at home. Of course, this is an interesting hedge against the rest of the Mets who all seem to play better on the road.
Silva is definitely the best of the bunch you laid out for starters, but his #s aren't overwhelming either. His career average ERA of 4.31 probably drops to something just below 4 if you put him in NL, and maybe we pick up another .1-.2 by him working with Peterson. But I think it would be good to have a strikeout pitcher in #2 slot, and that is not Silva.
FA market stinks this year for pitching, Mets are definitely paying for the sins of getting rid of their young arms for nothing in return over the last 5 years.
How about making a run for dontrelle willis? Granted his #s fell off miserably this year, but I'd have to think that working with peterson + shea give him a lot of upside. Plus, he's had a down year so we can get him undervalued. I like taking a chance on him, if it pays off he's only 25 and that gives us a huge upside. I could see: Pedro / Willis / Maine / Perez / Pelfrey. Sign Silva as insurance.
Dontrelle makes for an interesting question. The fish are likely shopping him.
You'll recall that last off-season I made the case the Dontrelle was ripe for a fall. A lot of mileage on the arm for his age, a tortured delivery that isn't easy on his arm or his body (and one that make for inconsistency and command trouble), and he seemed to me to have a lot in common with Nomo-- a guy who's gonna get figured out.
Now this year saw a lot of that stuff come to fruition, which is good and bad. Good because he can probably be had a lot cheaper. If he stays healthy, and this year turns out to be an aberration, he could still be a good get. I would rank him slightly above any of the FA out there, and so would pursue a trade. But if the Fish demanded a lot back, it wouldn't take too long to get to a tipping point where I'd say, the upgrade over Silva isn't worth what we're giving up. I wouldn't give up Pelf or Humber for him. Maybe an F Mart or Gomez and another couple of lower prospects.
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