Rumors that the Mets will pursue Posada. I'm on the fence with this one since he'll probably command at least $12-13 M/yr for 3 years. I doubt he'll be as good as he was this year, but we don't have a lot of great options here, and Posada certainly adds the right character influence to the team and potentially a solid bat.
I wonder if the Mets will try to pursue Schilling. Normally I'd be opposed to going after someone his age, especially since I think it is essential that this team gets younger in the offseason. However, I like the fact that Schill is only asking for a one-year deal. My guess is Sox will want to keep him, since they can't quite be sure whether Daisuke will be another Beckett (rough first year, dominant after that), or show no improvement. Also can't be positive what they'll get out of a full season of Lester, Buccholz, etc. But I could see a rotation of Pedro, Schilling, Maine, Perez, Pelfrey, and then try to pick up Santana or Haren.
A-rod is most likely going to Dodgers with Torre, so Dodgers will be a force with offense + pitching. At least we have Penny's #.
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Schill's a gamer, no doubt, but I don't want any part of him. He's a power pitcher who barely cracks 90 at this point. We already have two old guys who might be good or might stay healthy.
Over at Mets Geek, they had a "don't sign A Rod" post up today with some excellent analysis on D. Wright. He uses some stats that bolster what I was saying during the season, that Wright is actually a very proficient 3B whose error count is undboutedly inflated due to his range. Big range means reaching more balls, having more oppourtunties (to make plays and errors), and more difficult opportunities. Here's his analysis (although I must admit I haven no idea how stats like OOZ are computed):
The case against signing A-Rod begins and ends with David Wright. Wright said he would switch positions to accommodate A-Rod, and that’s admirable. But I think the Mets are underrating what they have in Wright.
Wright isn’t just a good defensive player. He is an exceptional defensive player at third base. He charges the ball extraordinarily well, and he has extremely quick reflexes at third base. He has become a master at charging bunts in sacrificing situations. He handles his glove well, with occasional mistakes. Wright’s one flaw, defensively, is his throwing accuracy. He has a very strong arm, but he often makes bad throws to first base.
Statistically, Wright ranked fifth in the NL in zone rating (courtesy of The Hardball Times), behind Pedro Feliz, Scott Rolen, Ryan Zimmerman, and Aramis Ramirez. But more impressive than that was the “OOZ” list (plays out of your assigned zone).
Wright didn’t just lead the league in plays out of his zone; he blew away the competition. I prorated plays “out of zone” to 150 games per NL third baseman and looked at the players who fielded the most innings at third for each NL team. I also added A-Rod.
Player Team OOZ
David Wright NYM 83.8
Chipper Jones ATL 71.3
Pedro Feliz SFG 68.6
Ryan Zimmerman WAS 67.0
Scott Rolen STL 56.3
Morgan Ensberg HOU 54.9
Miguel Cabrera FLA 51.5
Nomar Garciaparra LAD 49.6
Mark Reynolds ARI 48.1
Alex Rodriguez NYY 47.7
Aramis Ramirez CHC 45.8
Jose Bautista PIT 45.7
Edwin Encarnacion CIN 45.1
Kevin Kouzmanoff SDP 42.8
Garrett Atkins COL 40.9
Ryan Braun MIL 30.0
Impressive, right? Wright blows away the field. But wait, there’s more:
Team GB%
COL 46%
ATL 45%
LAN 45%
SDP 45%
HOU 44%
PIT 44%
ARI 43%
PHI 43%
STL 43%
SFG 42%
CHN 41%
FLA 41%
MIL 41%
CIN 40%
NYN 40%
WAS 39%
The Mets’ staff generated a ton of flyballs. So, Wright made a bunch of plays out of his zone, despite a staff consisting of mostly flyball hurlers. So, fewer opportunities, more plays. (Note: I’m honestly not sure how many of the out of zone plays are pop-ups.)
In other words, Wright’s really good at third base.
The author goes on to explain why 1B and 2B are not good fits for David:
Everything Wright does at third, he could do at first, and he wouldn’t have to test his sometimes-erratic arm. A perfect fit, right? Except in one very important way:
Richie Sexson 80
Derrek Lee 77
Ryan Howard 76
Sean Casey 76
Justin Morneau 76
Adam LaRoche 75
Albert Pujols 75
Carlos Delgado 75
Casey Kotchman 75
Todd Helton 74
Adrian Gonzalez 74
Dmitri Young 74
Conor Jackson 74
Paul Konerko 74
Lyle Overbay 74
Carlos Pena 74
Ryan Garko 74
Lance Berkman 73
Kevin Youkilis 73
Prince Fielder 72
David Wright 72
Wright would be dead-last, among all qualifiers, in a critical category for first basemen: height. That’s the height in inches of every qualifying first baseman from 2007, plus David Wright. Height is key for a first baseman; it can help bring in high throws while allowing him to keep his foot on the bag while reaching for them. It also makes for a larger target. Wright is just not built for the position.
Second base, on the other hand, is a rangey position, more than a reflex position. And Wright wouldn’t get to charge home plate, a play at which he is so proficient. It’s also one of the most taxing positions on the diamond; very few second basemen last for a long time. We don’t know how well Wright would respond to a position change, particularly at second base. He might get leveled with a takeout slide, something that may be a difficult technique for a converted third baseman to learn, causing him to face a career of recurring leg or knee injuries or something along those lines. Or he might not. But Wright is far too valuable to take that risk. He’s locked up for five more years, and it’s just not worth experimenting like that with a known quantity, especially one who plays his current position so well to begin with.
So, to me, moving Wright off of third, even for a year, is not an option. And, furthermore, I’m not convinced that the Mets would move Wright back to third after a year. A-Rod, to me, is the perfect first baseman of the future, but Delgado’s entrenched there now, and I don’t know if the Mets would use A-Rod that way, even if they did bring him in.
The Mets actually have a really good thing going on the left side of their infield. Sadly, A-Rod doesn’t fit into that, unless you could persuade him to move to left field or dump Delgado. I strongly doubt both things.
A compelling argument. I'm not convinced that A-Rod wouldn't consider a move to 1B or 2b, which would be the necessary component for the Mets to consider signing him.
On Schill my position depends on what we realistically think we can get out of a trade. First, I'm assuming El Duque is either off this team or in the bullpen - I do not want to count on him as a starter. If we really think we can get Santana or Haren then I'd say skip Schill. However, I really don't see how we are going to come up with a winning package for either of those guys that is better than any other team's offer, without losing all of the young players we are banking on as starters or #1 backups next year (e.g., Milledge, Pelf, Gomez, Chavez). On the big con side Schill is old and I know he's going to be injured, on the pro side he still posted a 3.87 ERA and 1.25 WHIP last year against the AL.
Interesting stats about Wright, but I have to take exception with some of them. First and foremost is his height argument at 1B. In principle it sounds reasonable that a taller 1B is better - more reach for errant throws. But look closely at the numbers: only one 1B had zero errors this year, youkilis. And he's only 1" taller than Wright. Even more compelling, the great ones Keith Hernandez and Don Mattingly were both an even 6', the same as Wright. So I throw this away by saying a good athlete can more than compensate for height at 1B.
I'm also not sure about the OOZ stat: I would imagine that if he extends his range a lot on a particular play but can't get to it, then it should be scored a hit rather than an E (although that's of course subjective and who knows how the on-field guy is calling it). Admittedly I only saw about 20-25 mets games this year, but the ones I saw where wright got an E they were true legit E's on what should have been a routine play.
At the same time I do agree that he makes a lot of amazing plays at 3B, better than I see out of a lot of other 3B. He shows excellent range and ability to really hold shots down the line even when he's playing off the line. I'm happy to keep him at 3rd, my only point really is that if you were forced to decide between him and A-rod at 1B or 3B, i'd put a-rod at 3B and wright at 1B. I also agree that wright at 2B would not work well.
"only one 1B had zero errors this year, youkilis. And he's only 1" taller than Wright."
This actually plays right into the point of height. The shorter you are, the less high throws you can get a glove on, hence the more errors that go to the other IF's and the less errors that go to the 1B.
As for Mattingly and Hernandez, that's fine, but it's just a different era (20 years now). I don't think Rizzuto or Reese would even make the bigs now, just based on their frame, even though they were two of the best SS's of their era.
Although I definitely agree that I'd rather move Wright to 1b than 2b if he's gonna get moved.
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