He's been hit hard recently, but still, I'm surprised. The details here.
I guess the thought is, with his velocity down and fatigue setting in, let him pitch through the dog days in AAA. Next year hopefully his endurance will be a little stronger. Still, it's not like he's the only guy in the bullpen who's been through a rough patch this year.
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This is Mets management at its "best", and it really irritates me. Instead of taking appropriate actions in the offseason to secure a competent bullpen (i.e., re-sign Oliver and Bradford, pursue Gagne, etc.), they rush Joe Smith up to the majors and lean heavily on him. You then have Omar Minaya tossing around his usual mysterious vague proclamations in spring training, that he just has a feeling that "someone" is going to really step up this year in the bullpen much like Sanchez and Mota last year. Everyone rightfully assumed he was referring to Smith. Of course, now that reality is sinking in, the Mets have potentially set him back months or years in mental development by: (a) not allowing him at least one season in AAA to develop, and (b) now not only does he have the mental strain of failure at MLB level on his mind, but a demotion to boot.
The worst part is apparently Minaya is already gearing up to run yet another top prospect through the meat grinder that is the Mets farm system as quickly as possible, as pointed out in Fredo's blog about Kunz the other day:
"Joe Smith did it in one year after he signed," Minaya said. "If you're a college player, it usually takes about four or five years, but he could be up here as early as September or August next year."
Hopefully they can pull Humber and F-Mart up early too and destroy any future they have as well.
OK, SHK, I'll take the bait. Here goes:
As for the constant Bradford carping (the Oliver decision is fairly irrelevant based on long-man status, Sele's eaten plenty of innings), let's compare apples to apples. To this point in the season, if Bradford had been the situational righty guy instead of Joe Smith (they filled the same role for the Mets), what would that have gained us (for an additional $2.2 Mil per)?
Bradford's #'s:
0-4 2.83; 41.1 IP, 41 H, 9 BB, 23 K, .259 BAA,
Smith's #'s:
2-1 3.03; 38.2 IP, 40H, 19 BB, 36K, .268 BAA
In this year (year 1 of the 3 year deal you would've needed to sign Bradford), an unheralded rookie had numbers that are equivalent (or if you must, just a shade shy) of those Bradford are putting up. Smith cost us less, and has been getting good experience for a young guy who is still learning and has years left at the ML level before he's arbitration eligible.
To this point in the season, based on the totality of the season (not just this past month), you'd have to say Omar made the right call if you boil it down to Smith-vs-Bradford.
That becomes more complicated based on the decision to send him down. IMHO, the demotion was probably due to the fact that they've decided to move Sosa to the pen when Pedro comes back, rather than clear him from the roster. I'm not enough of a GM mad scientist to make the call, but the demotion could have a lot to do with who they have options remaining on (smith) and who they don't (Sosa). I'd love to get some more clarification on this point.
You feel fairly certain this will "set him back months or years." My guess is that it will not. He's clearly mature beyond his years (the vets on the team apparently love him), and he's got enough good memories to know he's a major leaguer. He's not going down thinking, "I was a failure. Will I ever be able to perform in the bigs?" He's already done it a very high level, which is almost justification enough for giving him a shot.
He's just got to handle whatever's been plaguing him for the past month: either a mechanical problem (I have to wonder if he's been signaling his pitches based on how drastically the opposition improved against him all at once), or that first-pro-season-dead-arm syndrome that can strike when the college season would have just ended.
As long as he's not totally gassed, I'm sure we'll see Joe again come the Sept. call-ups.
I don't think you can compare Bradford's #s in AL to what he would have done if still on Mets - everyone knows NL is watered-down league, I'm sure he would be solid again this year. I think the key is that by not re-signing Bradford and Oliver the Mets really painted themselves into a corner. They were forced to use Joe Smith, rather than simply having him as an option. Not only were they forced to use him, but they were banking on him to be the rock of their bullpen (excluding Wagner). I think if they had re-signed those guys and/or picked up Gagne, it would have given them some nice trade bait.
I guess I'm just surprised that they weren't more concerned about their bullpen. You had Mota out 50 games and uncertain how he would do upon return; you lost Sanchez to injury; and Heilman was always hit or miss. Of the three most dependable guys (Feliciano, Bradford, and Oliver), they let two walk, and for not a ridiculous asking price. Since the bullpen was one of our keys last year, I'm just surprised at the moves. Unless they were banking on the offense being so dominant this year that it would be less of an issue.
Well, going into the season you had Wagner, Feliciano, Heilman, Sanchez (remember they thought he was going to be ready opening day when pitchers and catchers reported), which covers your closer, 8th inn guy, and LHP and RHP situational guys. Then you had Scho and Smith for the middle innings, and a long guy in Sele.
And you know you have Mota coming back, so going into the season you have to figure Omar planned on dropping Mota into Smith's spot if he Joe was struggling. Of course Smith turned out to be great, so more power to him.
So it's tough to say they walked into the season without planning out the pen. A lot of stuff hit the fan, including Sanchez being set back at least year, Heilman being inconsistent, and the Scho being horrendous. At the end of the day, the problem seems to lie with some bad calls in terms of player evaluation rather than a lack of planning. But it's tough to hammer Omar on this. You can't pick and choose. The same scouts-eye that got Omar to trade Kepp-for-Gotay (which I hated), bring on Chavez, get Perez&Hernandez-for-Nady, and Maine&Duque for Kris Benson is the same scout's eye that thought Heilman deserved the trust.
Well, maybe Omar's a little slow to change his evaluation, but Heilman's not closer-in-waiting material--he's a situational guy at best. And obviously someone flat dropped the ball on evaluating Scho, although I understand he's been pitching hurt all season, which makes a little bit of sense, anyway.
Oh, and as for the Gagne thing. Obviously, you wanted the Mets to take a flyer on him back when he was available. And in retrospect, it would've been a great call.
But 25 GM's took a pass on a guy whose arm had been totally restructured and no one had any idea what, if anything, the guy was going to have. It's not like Omar wasn't the only one who wanted to spend payroll on players that were at least going to be on the field. Gagne could just as easily have been Mo Vaughn this season. Luckily for him and the Texans, he's not. But most GM's are just going to take a pass in that kind of situation.
For me, the Gagne thing was a no-brainer. There were three reasons I thought this:
1. I had no faith in Wagner, especially right on the heels of the post-season.
2. We wouldn't have to trade any players (this was key - I would have had no interest in taking a gamble on him if we had to trade).
3. He only required a one-year deal, at reasonable $ ($6 M guaranteed, I think as much as another $6 M in performance bonuses).
I figured worst case he's a bust, you're out 6 M for one year, not the end of the world (especially given Mets payroll). Best case, both he and Wagner are on, and you can either have an 8-9 closer situation or have phenomenal trade bait with either one.
As for Mota, I wasn't expecting much, I'm pretty sure historically most players have a down year after dropping the juice. Of course no one could have predicted Duaner's freak accident in spring training, but then again, it was unclear what we could expect out of him period after last year's surgery.
No doubt that Omar & co. have done a great job evaluating talent overall and given the team a complete 180. I especially like the acquisition of rick peterson - it's like 5 players in one coach. They've also come up with some real surprising gems, like Perez. But i think they are placing a little too much confidence in the bill belichick plug-and-play approach.. Career B and C players won't always turn out to be diamonds in the rough.
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