The problem with this offense is too much focus on going yard, too little emphasis on (less flashy) singles and doubles. Let's compare this lineup to '86.
1. HRs. The most HRs on '86 team was Straw with 27. Carter was #2 with 24, no one else had over 20. The team scored 783 runs, while the '07 Mets are only on pace to score 762 runs. The '07 team needs to understand that you don't need HRs to drive in runs, and further that such an attitude is actually counter-productive and costing them runs in key spots.
2. I think the largest area where '07 Mets stink is attitude and skills of #2 and #3 batters. This is the biggest discrepancy between '86 and '07. In '86 we had Backman (.320 / .376 / 32 Ks) and Hernandez (.310 / .413 / 69 Ks) at #2 and #3. In '07 we've had a turnstile of personnel here with no stability, and it's particularly the 3-hole that's a killer. One positive about PLD in #2 is his low strikeout rate, and willingness to take strikes to allow Reyes to steal. But his .310 OBP is killing us this year. Even worse, at #3 Beltran vs. Hernandez is a non-starter. Beltran's career #s of .279/.353/116 Ks per season is not getting it done. What we need in 3-hole is a CLUTCH hitter, who is looking to avoid strikeouts and simply smack a single. Drive in Reyes, and get on base for the big bats. I would say we are dying to have a traditional contact hitter for the 3 spot. If he wasn't so inexperienced I would like to put Milledge in this spot. I'd say this is potentially a better lineup:
1. Reyes
2. Castillo or Gotay
3. Milledge (might be too soon to move him, this is for future)
4. Wright
5. Alou
6. Beltran
7. Delgado
8. PLD
9. Pitcher
I hate dropping the power of Beltran and Delgado to 6-7, but the simple fact remains that their averages are KILLING US. They are rally killers of the worst kind - if they don't go yard, they are an automatic out or even worse DP. We can't afford to have 3-4-5 be easy outs, swinging for fences and avoiding easy RBI opportunities when a simple single would do.
7 comments:
Milledge will not be ready to be in the heart of the lineup until '09, in the best case scenario where he keeps advancing.
I don't understand why Wright isn't put in 3 hole. He's a prototypical 3 hitter. Over .300 average, good speed, moderate power, and hits to all fields.
When we lose a big game with Beltran making the final out and Wright sitting in the on-deck circle, it is going to drive me to drink.
FWIW, my best case lineup right now is:
Reyes
Castillo
Wright
Beltran
Alou
Delgado
Milledge
PLD
Pitcher
Overall, I like your analysis. Reyes factors in as guy who's hitting 300+, but has reverted to his old hack-away self in the past few months. Again, a little discipline and situational hitting, and he could be the best leadoff guy in the game instead of one of the best leadoff guys in the game.
Castillo looks to be the perfect fit in the 2 hole, at least for this year. You can see his body breaking down before your eyes, so I doubt he's a long term answer, but he's the perfect rent-a-player for a team in a playoff drive that does all of the situational hitting you need.
Delgado has a huge hole in his swing: any fastball above the belt on the inner half he can't catch. He can still punish a mistake, but mistakes get harder to come by in the playoffs as the quality of the opposing pitchers increase.
Alou can still be valuable if he stays healthy, but as D.C. pointed out the other day, he's also a double-play waiting to happen.
Green is effin' useless. They can't s-can that guy fast enough. Bobby Bonilla's contract, for which he's still getting paid, was a value compared to what we're paying for Green.
LoDuca is obviously hurt and nowhere near the bat he was last year. He's a trooper and I forgive him that, but he's still a fairly easy out right now. And now Castro's hurt too.
This lineup is simply a hair above mediocre right now. If Beltran goes on a tear, Reyes gets re-focused, Wright stays hot, and Alou stays healthy, we can have a strong lineup. That's a lot of if's.
I agree that it's probably too soon to move milledge up much higher than 6, in which case Wright is hands down your best option for 3-hole right now. The only thing I'd like to see out of Wright if in 3-spot is more ability to foul off pitches and drive up pitch count, to really get selective.
I just think most other teams that score a lot of runs traditionally have someone with high average and/or OBP batting third, and that is not Beltran (career #s and especially this year).
As for Wright fouling off pitches, he has the most pitches / plate appearance of any Mets regular.
Gotay 4.19
Wright 3.98
Chavez 3.87
Castillo 3.77
Beltran 3.77
Green 3.72
LoDuca 3.69
Milledge 3.69
Reyes 3.65
Easley/Delgado 3.64
Valentin 3.61
Anderson 3.38
Gomez 3.34
Interesting, didn't know that. Unfortunately while he's doing relatively well on the mets, the Mets are not particularly good at this overall. Wright at 3.97 is good enough only to be #45 in MLB. Castillo at 3.99 (NYM + MIN) is #40. Pretty pathetic that we don't have anyone in top 10 or even top 20.
Agreed. As much as anything else, this sheds some light on why such a talented offense continues to struggle.
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