Mets moves...

NY Post article talking about Adam Kennedy, and Heilman still insists on being a starter.

'07 Mets

Interesting Q&A here on mets.com, worth reading through. Touches on many of the points we've discussed in this blog.

Looks like it was in the Cards...

Well, part of me is glad to see Cards win. I'm sick of hearing about NL being so inferior to AL. Also, for the minimal amount it's worth, at least we lost to WS champ.

On the other hand, it kind of leaves a bad taste in my mouth that the WS champ only won 83 games, just TWO games over .500. Lowest winning percentage in WS history.

Acquisitions...

According to Post, Mets not interested in pursuing Zito, Soriano, or Manny at this point.

Roster Notes

From the NY Daily News:

-Carlos Delgado, traded to the Mets in the middle of a multi-year deal, has the right to demand a trade. He again declined to rule that out yesterday, though he may just be angling to get the Mets to guarantee a 2009 option. Delgado is owed $30.5 million over the next two seasons, though the Marlins will pay the Mets $6 million of that sum...

Asked about the importance of the Mets picking up the option, he said: "Would you like your boss to give you another year?

-Tom Glavine has until Nov. 10 to declare his intention as far as a $7.5 million player option, while the team has until Nov. 20 to exercise its $14 million option. Glavine gets a $3 million payment if both are declined, and is still free to re-sign

This article had info on how Soriano will be pursued by the Mets. It also had the following tidbits:

-Starters:

Randolph and Minaya both want Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez back -- badly. Glavine is a family decision while El Duque is a financial one. With Pedro Martinez sidelined at least the first half of the season, the Mets need these two to stabilize the rotation.

With age at the top of the rotation, the Mets can afford to take a flyer on potential at the back end, and there are plenty of options here. While the past three drafts have been topped by starting pitching -- Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Mulvey -- the Mets have plenty of stop gaps to fill space until they are certain the highly touted arms are ready.

Oliver Perez and John Maine moved faster than expected, a point driven home by Maine taking the ball for 51/3 shutout innings of Game 6 of the National League Championship Series and Perez pitching six innings of one-run ball in Game 7. Those two figure to be the frontrunners for a rotation spot, along with Dave Williams, who pitched well after his call-up, and injury-plagued Brian Bannister, who is starting over again.

Figure this deep crop to create a much more soothing option when the Mets have to dip down to the minors...

The market for a top-of-the-rotation starter is weak this season, but the Mets will be involved.

Barry Zito makes sense with pitching coach Rick Peterson already a huge supporter from their days in Oakland, but he's going to cost a lot -- maybe too much for what he's accomplished. Jason Schmidt is another possibility, but he also would not gain so much interest in a deeper pool of talent.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was 17-5 with a 2.13 ERA in Japan, sounds like a potential ace and who wouldn't want a purveyor of the gyroball, but the Japanese import will cost even more -- requiring a huge bid just to gain negotiating rights.

-Relievers

While closer Billy Wagner is signed on for three more seasons, the free agent list includes Guillermo Mota, Chad Bradford, Darren Oliver, Pedro Feliciano and Roberto Hernandez.

Barring a trade, Aaron Heilman will be back -- and almost certainly be back in the bullpen. Duaner Sanchez is expected to be healthy again by spring training. Heath Bell and Royce Ring got experience the past few years and are still under the organization's control.

But the Mets want to keep the free agents -- particularly Mota, who found himself again after joining the Mets, and Bradford, who was a consistent force as a set-up man. Oliver said he definitely will pitch again this coming season after finding success in New York and the Mets would like him back, too.

'07

Some early (and minimal) insight into Minaya's thinking for offseason can be found here. Nothing surprising, but clearly his approach is that they've got the nucleus players, and having numbers of pitchers available for different options is what he considers most important.

If I had to guess, we will not pursue a big-name vet pitcher at this point, he will likely look to pick up several lesser known guys and hopefully improve their #s, just like what happened with maine, mota, sanchez, etc. Then maybe he'll look to replace valentin at 2nd with a veteran hitter, so soriano fits the bill. The main thing I don't like about soriano is that we sacrifice defense, and I think having a solid infield is key in the playoffs. But the other 2B options (kennedy, belliard) don't have much offense, and it's not like sori is a disaster at 2nd base.

The Outfield

SHK writes:

Bottom line, if Wright and Green hit like we expect them to, we don't need Valentin to do much on offense. But it would be key to get someone to replace Floyd in 6 spot, to back up wright.

The organization has held on to Milledge despite having numerous opportunities to trade him for bankable players. I have to assume that means Omar's planning on giving him a shot to compete for a starting job next year.

Where does that leave us in the corner outfield positions next year?

If we're keeping Green, as SHK indicates above, here's option #1: Milledge/Chavez in LF, Beltran in CF and Green in RF. In this case, we're rolling the dice on Green returning to form and being 6 hitter who provides some protection to Wright.

Option #2: moving Green and get a get another guy--Soriano, Burrell, or someone else--to hit 6th, and putting Milledge/Chavez in RF.

Option #3: trading Milledge, making Chavez the 4th outfielder, acquiring a 6 hitter somewhere else, and letting Green stay in right and hit 7th for one more year till his contract is up.

Signings

Mets to lock up Glavine and Delgado?

A few early hot stove items

1. San Diego apparently covets Oliver Perez (according to ESPN.com). Josh Barfield anyone? I wonder what else we'd have to throw in, if anything.

2. The Phils want to move Pat Burrell and his fat contract (also according to espen). While he might not seems like a Soriano level guy, his OPS has been .880 the last couple of years, and he's been a 30 HR & 90-100 RBI guy. That's nothing to sneeze at, and a huge improvement over what we got from LF this year. I'm not saying we need to go get the guy now. Let the winter play out, see what else develops. But it's one possibility to keep warm on the back burner. Thanks to his contract, the Mets could probably get him for a bag of balls if Fred's willing to eat his salary.

3. What do we do with Glavine? When I think forward to '07, I'm guessing we're going to go with something similar to what the Tigers had this year: one vet and a bunch of live arms. Is Glavine the vet? Or do we shell out for Zito? Or go with Schmidt? Or trade for some other front line starter? But there's really only one spot for a vet. After that, you have Maine, Heilman, Pelfrey, Humber, Oliver Perez, Bannister and Mulvey competing for four slots in April. When Pedro comes back mid-season, one of the young guys would get bumped to the pen. The Mets would only need one of the young pitchers to turn into a legitimate #3 and the playoff rotation would be solid.

And if Maine, Pelfrey and Humber got a full season under their belt, would you really be shocked if the three of them were pitching on an equal--or even higher--level than Pedro and Zito/Schmidt/Glavine come October? I wouldn't. Sure they wouldn't be as crafty as the vets, but as they say in hoops, "you can't teach youth." Or is it, "you can't teach velocity?" I can't remember.

Some more constructive notes

from the excellent blog over at Metsgeek.com:

Thanks Omar, Willie and the Mets for a great season. As much as this hurts right now, when I look back at what my expectations were back in April I would have to say the season was a success overall. If you knew the following facts BEFORE the season started, how would you have predicted the outcome:

1) Pedro will miss 1/3 of the season and be useless in September.
2) Jose Lima, Jeremi Gonzalez, Alay Soler, Dave Williams and Oliver Perez would all find their way into the rotation.
3) Jose Valentin will start the majority of games at 2B.
4) Cliff Floyd will revert to his old self and Endy Chavez will play a lot of RF.

If Miss Cleo had come to me with this in April, I might have cancelled my Extra Innings subscription ;-)

POS

What a waste. How the F does the team which DOMINATED the NL all season lose to the team with the WORST RECORD in the playoffs? A team we were 4-2 against this season, that we were FOURTEEN games better than? A team that you SHUT DOWN the only offensive threat - Pujols - to .248 and 1 RBI??? Your offense and bullpen blow and are overrated, that's how.

Ironically starting pitching was good enough, great in spots, to win this series. It was our supposedly HUGE offense and bullpen that were going to carry us. Well, they carried us all right, straight into the shitter.

Wagner, as I've maintained all season, is overrated and sucks. I don't trust him with the game on the line, EVER.

Heilman and Mota can't pitch more than one inning each.

How do the Mets not score in the bottom of the inning after Chavez makes the greatest catch ever? How do you not draw on that momentum and score? Green, Valentin, and Chavez are too much of an easy out in a pressure situation. But really that's not their job - where's the 1-5 in the lineup? For Reyes to not reach base ONCE last night is a massive regression - he showed no patience at the plate. Lo Duca has to find a way to get on base even when no one is on ahead of him. I'll save some special words for Beltran below. Wright sucked all series. ALL series, every game he sucked.

This team cannot hit a breaking ball to save their lives. Sure, they're as deadly as anyone when being served a steady diet of fastballs, or when a pitcher makes a mistake and leaves it over the fat part of the plate. But the minute they face breaking stuff, they wilt. LEARN HOW TO HIT SINGLES. Not every at bat has to be going for the long ball. Live by the HR, die by the HR. And that's exactly what they did this series.

And for Beltran to end the whole season LOOKING at strike 3. What a dandy.

Aaron Heilman is a Mean Man

That is all

The Duke of Flushing

This is why the guy is the team leader. From espn.com:

In the first, Maine bounced his seventh pitch, allowed singles to Scott Spiezio and Albert Pujols, then walked Juan Encarnacion. As grumbles emanated, Maine thought back to what his catcher, Paul Lo Duca, had said in a visit to the mound.

"He gave me a little speech," Maine said. "It was what I needed. It's secret, so no one is going to know except us two."

That much invective, huh?

"Not R-rated," Maine said.

"The old college ‘Go get ‘em,' " Lo Duca said.

Get 'em Maine did. He cruised through the second inning, worked out of two walks in the third by striking out Encarnacion, shook off another walk in the fourth, finished the fifth by striking out Pujols on a slider and left with one on and one out in the sixth, his straggler retired on a Rolen double-play ball, his final line.

"Johnny, to me, is not scared," Lo Duca said. "He wants to be out there, and I just wanted to let him know that [we], as a team, want him out there. We feel, and I told him, 'Just do your job, and we're going to win this ballgame for you.' I think we saw the maturation of a kid that's going to be a good pitcher, and you'll see him for a long time. He grew a lot tonight, and this is a step forward for his career."

It's all down to this...

Looks like Fredo's call of Mets in 7 might be right. I was a bit optimistic in calling for Mets in 5, although if they had held on to win game 2, who knows...

I like the call to start perez (out of the available options, that is!) Reason is that IF he pitches well, and we win, it saves darren oliver for WS game 1 if needed (and who knows what we get out of el duque). Worst case if perez is off, pull him ASAP and go right to darren who you were planning to burn anyway.

Wow!

What can you say about the effort by Maine, Reyes, and Lo Duca with the whole season on the line? Amazin! Reyes 3-4 with 2 R and 1 RBI. 1 HUGE RBI, a leadoff HR to settle down Maine and the whole team. Then Maine settling into an unhittable rhythm. And finally Lo Duca with a HUGE hit following another big Reyes hit.

Well, not exactly finally. Finally is reserved for Billy "My Man" wagner who has now taken that title away from Otis "my man" smith. Wagner has pitched in 6 games this postseason. In 3 of those 6 he was good. But in the other 3 atrocious does not even begin to describe it. 2 inexcusable runs last night. 3 the other night. This guy seems to have poor pitch selection and just plain poor pitches right now. He needs to figure this out, because Mets can't always bank on giving him a 4 run cushion. He has really been poor so far.

Trax out

According to Newsday, Trax won't start again this series.

That leaves Darren Oliver and Oliver Perez (3 days rest) as possibles for game 7. Oliver Twist is unavailable.

Metties

Calling Glavine "the goat" (ESPN and NYPost) is exactly what I disagree with - you can't blame him for yesterday's game, as discussed (or should I say "disgust"??) in my earlier post.

Wow, Glavine's not perfect. Shocking. Especially when ump is calling tight (and later in the game totally F'in arbitrary) strike zone. Glavine needs a wide strike zone to dominate. But 3 runs is not much, especially when we are facing Jeff "8-14 5.76 ERA" Weaver. Mets built this team around offense, not pitching. We knew that in regular season and postseason. This team lives and dies by the HR.

I'd like to see them play smarter, with different game plans depending on who the pitching matchup is. For example, with Glavine on the mound last night the Mets could reasonably expect to win with 4-5 runs. So maybe go for small ball, instead of trying to always have the big inning. Maybe have Lo Duca bunt in first inning with Reyes on. Or if not, at least in later innings in a close, low-scoring game, let's switch our approach at the plate. Try to manufacture runs, rather than relying on HRs.

Problems with this series, in no particular order:
1. Wagner 3-run 9th.
2. Trachsel.
3. Wright constantly hitting out of an 0-2 or 1-2 count. Every one of his appearances is: strike 1 looking outside corner, strike 2 swinging inside corner, ball 1, foul, fly ball out. He really needs to move closer to plate and adjust his mental approach.
4. Reyes regressing back towards last season, and not having patience to draw walks.
5. Trachsel.
6. Not counting pile-on runs in game 4, limited production from 5-9 slots.
7. Trachsel.

Mets are choking up for same reason as Yankees - not even considering possibility of small ball, but instead always looking for big inning. This is fine if we have a lead or a big inning type of situation (runners on 2nd and 3rd, 0 or 1 outs, etc.) But so far in this series, our highly vaunted offense has put up: 2, 6, 0, 12, and 2 runs. In 3 out of 5 games we've scored a whopping total of 4 runs.

Glavine

While I hope that Glavine has a solid game tonight, and expect no worse than 3 runs over 5 innings, I also hope that Mets aren't mentally expecting or banking on another Glavine shutout gem. Hopefully in their minds he'll be good but not great, so that if he isn't perfect, they don't get unnerved by it. Rather, they calmly play through the way they usually do and score more runs.

El Duque Game 1?

Update on Duque's good progress here.

And, just for good measure, A-knob to Cubbies?

Take a pitch

Welcome back DC!

Well, it looks like the Mets accept the declaration at the top of this blog page that all advice we offer should be followed to the letter.. I posted the other day my gripe that Mets were not taking pitches and driving up count. Here's the latest from the Post:

"After watching Jeff Suppan dominate them over eight innings in Game 3, the Mets decided to wait out rookie righty Anthony Reyes in Game 4. The approach Beltran talked about worked, as Reyes was spent after four innings and 86 pitches.

"What we did do was put [Game 3] behind us, and we went out there with, you know, a clean slate, with a good approach, different from [Saturday] night," Delgado said Sunday. "We took a lot of pitches. We made their guy work.

"He probably had 75 pitches by the third inning. We saw a lot of pitches and made him throw a lot of pitches and we got some guys on that came up with some big hits in key situations."

Where have you gone...

Dark Comenteer?

We miss your darkness.

Armchair Manager Time

OK, what do you do in these situations:

1) Glavine wins today, Maine loses Wed. Do you pitch (a) Trashel as scheduled, (b) Perez on short rest, (c) Darren Oliver? I'd say it has to be (c). Perez was good enough yesterday, but as Fredo mentioned in post comment his effort was not "great" and is being overblown by papers (although Post did call him out in spots). Ironically, even by his own lousy standards (6.5 ERA), Perez's game was not good (7.94 ERA). And he got lucky with some induced DPs in a few spots. But, to his credit, he kept Cards to 3 runs until we finally found our offense. His start was better than Trash's and even Maine's last start.

2) Game is rained out today, so we have Tue-Wed-Thu. Cards move Carpenter up in the rotation instead of Weaver. Do you still pitch Glavine?

3) El Duque is available for WS(see here). Do you pitch him in game 1 and glavine game 2, or vice versa? Presumably if we get rained out today and Glavine pitches tomorrow, you definitely start El Duque in game 1 in that case to avoid Glavine going on 3 days rest again.

Willie sick of the Trash?

From the Post:

TRACH STOCK DROPS
STEVE PULLED SELF FROM GAME 3
By JOEL SHERMAN and MARK HALE
October 16, 2006 -- ST. LOUIS - Steve Trachsel missed time at the end of the regular season due to personal reasons, so the Mets were already down on him. Now his stock with the team has dropped further.

In his horrible Game 3 start against the Cardinals on Saturday, Trachsel pulled himself out of the game with his right thigh contusion, Willie Randolph confirmed yesterday.

When asked what he thought of that, Randolph chuckled and said while walking away, "I'm not going to answer that."

Le Duc

Figured I wouldn't break the trend with post titles. Spanish, then English, so I threw in some French for good measure.

Anyway, a couple of interesting points from an ESPN.com article on the game by Stark:

Bet you didn't know Delgado already has mashed as many postseason homers as a Met as Darryl Strawberry.

Bet you didn't know he needs just one more RBI to say he has driven in as many postseason runs as a Met as Keith Hernandez or Mike Piazza.

Bet you didn't know he now owns the highest career postseason average of any Met who has ever accumulated 20 October at-bats or more.

I believe that's called a "triple crown". If the Mets win a series this year (to match Gary/Kieth/Darryl), he becomes our all-time great post-season position player. That didn't take long.

A funny line:

Like the Iron Chef, this is an offense that can carve you up 1,000 different ways. With flashing feet and top-to-bottom power. With patience and with brains. With the brightest faces of the 21st Century (Jose Reyes and David Wright) and the ageless face of the Dead-Ball Era (Julio Franco).

Remember when Franco managed to take the Big Train deep for his 26th home run? I really thought he was going to get #27 and tie the Major League home run record. I was never a Chicago White Stockings fan, but I always thought it a shame that Ned Williamson got the dropsy.

Duke

I'd say the biggest hit in the 6-run explosion was Lo Duca's, to advance Reyes to 3rd. Sure, Valentin's hit was huge, both because it really drove a stake into that game and because it was important for Valentin personally to pick up a hit in a clutch situation.

But Lo Duca's hit was the biggest because it was the toughest. If Lo Duca doesn't get that hit, most likely the inning fizzles like so many others in this series, or maybe we pick up a run or two at best. But by getting that hit, it all but guarantees a big inning. Beltran's job is far easier with Reyes on 3rd and 0 outs - even a fly ball picks up a run, which drops the pressure. Also, a DP doesn't end the inning, and even any ground ball probably scores Reyes. And as each successive batter reaches base, it becomes that much easier for the next guy to hit since the pressure rises dramatically on the pitcher as the wheels start coming off. With bases loaded and 0 outs, you might as well leave the ball on a tee for Delgado - it probably wouldn't go as far. And even Wright and Green with their problems at the plate are too good at hitting to miss an opportunity like that.

So, once again, the deadly combination of Reyes and Lo Duca comes through. I can't imagine anyone on the Mets (or even in baseball) being as clutch as the Duke when Reyes reaches base. It really is astounding how often he makes contact and advances Reyes, and that is the key to setting the table for 3-4-5.

El Duque

If true, this would be great news: "Hernandez said he can pitch if the Mets reach the World Series.." (NYPost)

Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up

"...Steve Trachsel allowed 10 of the 12 batters he faced on Saturday to reach base..."

Pitch count

I've never seen a team as ineffective as Mets at driving up pitch count of opposing pitcher. They clearly do not make this a priority in their approach at the plate at all. This is a problem because (a) it allows opposing starter to stay in game long and (b) results in quick innings that force our starter back out quickly.

Fouling off pitches to drive up count is the least you could do if you're not hitting. Beltran, Wright, Green, Valentin, and Chavez are killing us in this series.

And now the fun begins.

Having watched Mets pitching blow two leads in game 2, and the vaunted pen collapse, the future is starting to look a bit cloudy.

Mota, Heilman, and Wagner all threw a lot of pitches tonight, and Mota and Wagner were doing it for the second straight night. If Trax does not pitch deep into the game tomorrow, and/or the Mets stake the staff to a sizeable lead of 4 runs or more, it's going to get very tricky. And Trax, of course, is well known for nibbling and running up his pitch count and relying on the pen early.

Will Wagner bounce back mentally from 3 ER's in 2/3 of an IP? A closer makes his money just as much for the ability to forget the bad outing and come back strong tomorrow, as he does for his raw ability.

Looking further down the line, we have Perez in game 4 and a short-rested Glavine in game 5. Perez has consistently been lifted early in games. After his CG on 9/6, here's how he's fared:

9/12 5.0 IP, 101 pitches, 4 runs
9/20 5.1 IP, 109 pitches, 3 runs
9/26 5.1 IP, 73 pitches, 6 runs
10/1 4.0 IP, 77 pithces, 1 run

All those outings were against non-playoff teams. He hasn't pitched six innings in over a month, and, by the time of his start, won't have pitched at all in a game situation in 2 weeks. Not great for a pitcher whose primary issue is command. A depleted pen will be tested again in game 4.

Even on short rest, I have confidence in Glavine to give our team a chance to win in game 5.

Maine vs. Carpenter in game 6 will still be an unfavorable matchup, even at Shea, and especially because a Cy Young pitcher like Carpenter will be spitting bullets. No way does he want to throw two stinkers in a row and become the A-Rod of the Archway.

If it goes 7, I like our chances at home with every arm on deck and another Trax-Suppan matchup.

My assessment? I'm sticking with the Mets in 7, but someone's going to have to pull a rabbit out of their hat in the next couple of nights. Either Trax or Perez is going to have to go 7 or 8 innings and stake the team to a lead. I don't like the odds, but faith has me holding out hope.

Here's my prediction for the rest of the series:

Game 3 Win (against the odds)
Game 4 Loss
Game 5 Win
Game 6 Loss
Game 7 Win

Nip and tuck, baby!

D-bag quote of the day

And it goes to...Pujols about Glavine: “He wasn’t good. He wasn’t good at all,” Pujols said. “I think we hit the ball hard. We didn’t get some breaks.”

Hey Pujols, yeah Glavine was that good. He made your lineup look silly. Give credit where it's due: the reason you didn't hit the ball well is not because you forgot how to, it's because Glavine is a master at pitch location.