With the majors' worst record this month (2-8), New York is just one defeat from equaling the number of losses it had all May. The Mets have the majors' sixth-worst ERA (5.10) and have scored the sixth-fewest runs (36) this month.
I realize part of this is related to injuries, and part must just be bad luck, but I can't help but think that a large part of this is simply due to the tougher opposition in June, which doesn't bode well.
Well, sure, tougher opposition is going to make you look worse than poor opposition.
But baseball is a notoriously streaky game, comprised of streaky pitchers and streaky hitters. Minimizing streakiness is the mark of the greatest teams, but even then, you never know. Just look at the Cards last year. A mediocre team that got ridiculously hot.
The Mets bats and pitching have been waning recently, and that's largely due to (1) injuries and (2) healthy players pressing to compensate for injuries. Our pitchers have been dealing with low run support and a useless bullpen, so naturally they are pressing.
The lineup will always go, to a large degree, as Reyes goes. Never been more true than in the last few weeks, when both Wright and Delgado went from a combined handful of HR's to leading the team with 10 and 12 or something like that. You'd think that with the heart of the order hitting jacks all over the place the team would be streaking. But unfortunately, with as good as Jose's April was, his late May/early June has been almost as bad. When Jose's not setting the table, Beltran gets less to hit, the opposing pitchers have better focus against the 2/3 hitters, and the offense stagnates.
Losing Green and Alou's bats turned out to be much bigger than I thought. Endy got exposed as a great 4th outfielder who makes a mediocre 3rd outfielder. Gomez isn't ready to hit yet at this level. Newhan? Ledee? These are AAA or in Gomez's case AA players who are starting on a presumed Championship-level team. Is it that much of a surprise were struggling right now?
FWIW, I'd like to see more of of Easley in the OF. I'd also consider adding Sandy Alomar to the roster as a 3rd catcher. That would allow Willie to use him as a pinch hitter and occasional catcher. He's been a great hitter in the past, is doing a nice job in AAA right now, has been around and won't be intimidated by ML pitching coming off the bench. And besides, he has to be more effective than Julio Franco right now.
No doubt, baseball is definitely a game of streaks, where even the best or worst teams can string together losses or wins. But I think we're seeing more than that here, I think we're seeing this team exposed. Specifically, I think Omar needs to honestly assess several areas:
1. Starting pitching - you're asking a lot to bank on 2 guys over 40, and three guys who are rookies or have been very wild in the past. I hope Pedro is as good as he's promoting when he returns, but who knows.
2. Relief pitching - again, when you're putting the weight of the staff on a rookie in Joe Smith, that's asking a lot. No way that Sele and Schoenweis can replace Bradford, Sanchez, and Oliver. I'll say it all season - not re-signing Bradford and Oliver makes absolutely no sense to me - this has to be on Minaya.
3. Hitting. This is the opposite of points (1) and (2) - here, we are way underperforming what we should be doing on paper. I think you have to look to Willie to lock in a lineup as best he can given all the injuries, and then Rick downs to provide more guidance. Plus, I'm sorry but you cannot have a guy batting as poorly as delgado in 4 slot or even 5. He's either still got a wrist injury, or his age has caught up to him, but either way what he's in now goes beyond simple slumping or pressing. I think he needs to be put in 6 or 7 spot for at least a solid month.
I'd go Reyes - Duke - Beltran - Wright - Green - Delgado - Easley -...
In any case, without trades to get a legit #1 pitcher or Crawford-type offense, I don't see us doing much in playoffs. Of course, we could always pull a Cards as Fredo mentions..
Also, I'd say right now the main reason we are cold is beltran, even more than reyes. Reyes' #s have at least steadied out, while Beltran continues to tank and do nothing. Having him and delgado as 3-4 is killing us, we're getting absolutely nothing out of them.
The bullpen is weak, but I think you're looking in the wrong place pinning it on not signing Oliver and Bradford.
Oliver had a much better season last year than Sele has had this year, but that doesn't matter all that much. Neither pitcher pitched in tight games or even games where the Mets had big leads. Oliver, towards the end of last year, got a few innings in a set up role, but he spit the bit and got put back in the long reliever slot.
Bradford was replaced with Smith, and it's hard to argue that Smith has been every bit as good as we could have expected Bradford to be, and at a fraction of the cost.
No, the problem with the pen has been with the guys who were retained to replicate their past performance, but have failed miserably.
Heilman: master of the belt high change.
Sanchez: master of the DL.
Mota: erstwhile master of the long suspension, now master of the 3-run jack.
Want to know why the bullpen's not been performing? Pine away about Bradford all you want, but Sanchez/Mota/Heilman are reasons 1, 2 and 3.
True, but here's why I blame Minaya: problems with all three of those guys could've been foreseen. Specifically:
(1) Heilman was always hit and miss, even last year, AND has always complained about being in the pen rather than a starter
(2) Much earlier this year I expressed concern about what numbers Mota would put up this year, noting that most guys have an off year when they come off the juice
(3) Even before he really ripped his arm earlier this year, at the end of last year it was unclear when we would get Sanchez back, and whether he would ever be serviceable again. It was definitely a bit of a dice roll..
Picking up Sele and Schoeneweis is really asking too much of Peterson. Sele is old and has never even had better than average numbers, while Scho is even worse. I understand that heading into this season Omar's view is that over the last three years the Mets laid out the big bucks to form their core, and therefore going forward they will not take on more significant additional salary - they are looking for role players. But I think the "core" is not quite as solid as it needs to be.
6 comments:
From ESPN.com:
With the majors' worst record this month (2-8), New York is just one defeat from equaling the number of losses it had all May. The Mets have the majors' sixth-worst ERA (5.10) and have scored the sixth-fewest runs (36) this month.
I realize part of this is related to injuries, and part must just be bad luck, but I can't help but think that a large part of this is simply due to the tougher opposition in June, which doesn't bode well.
Well, sure, tougher opposition is going to make you look worse than poor opposition.
But baseball is a notoriously streaky game, comprised of streaky pitchers and streaky hitters. Minimizing streakiness is the mark of the greatest teams, but even then, you never know. Just look at the Cards last year. A mediocre team that got ridiculously hot.
The Mets bats and pitching have been waning recently, and that's largely due to (1) injuries and (2) healthy players pressing to compensate for injuries. Our pitchers have been dealing with low run support and a useless bullpen, so naturally they are pressing.
The lineup will always go, to a large degree, as Reyes goes. Never been more true than in the last few weeks, when both Wright and Delgado went from a combined handful of HR's to leading the team with 10 and 12 or something like that. You'd think that with the heart of the order hitting jacks all over the place the team would be streaking. But unfortunately, with as good as Jose's April was, his late May/early June has been almost as bad. When Jose's not setting the table, Beltran gets less to hit, the opposing pitchers have better focus against the 2/3 hitters, and the offense stagnates.
Losing Green and Alou's bats turned out to be much bigger than I thought. Endy got exposed as a great 4th outfielder who makes a mediocre 3rd outfielder. Gomez isn't ready to hit yet at this level. Newhan? Ledee? These are AAA or in Gomez's case AA players who are starting on a presumed Championship-level team. Is it that much of a surprise were struggling right now?
FWIW, I'd like to see more of of Easley in the OF. I'd also consider adding Sandy Alomar to the roster as a 3rd catcher. That would allow Willie to use him as a pinch hitter and occasional catcher. He's been a great hitter in the past, is doing a nice job in AAA right now, has been around and won't be intimidated by ML pitching coming off the bench. And besides, he has to be more effective than Julio Franco right now.
No doubt, baseball is definitely a game of streaks, where even the best or worst teams can string together losses or wins. But I think we're seeing more than that here, I think we're seeing this team exposed. Specifically, I think Omar needs to honestly assess several areas:
1. Starting pitching - you're asking a lot to bank on 2 guys over 40, and three guys who are rookies or have been very wild in the past. I hope Pedro is as good as he's promoting when he returns, but who knows.
2. Relief pitching - again, when you're putting the weight of the staff on a rookie in Joe Smith, that's asking a lot. No way that Sele and Schoenweis can replace Bradford, Sanchez, and Oliver. I'll say it all season - not re-signing Bradford and Oliver makes absolutely no sense to me - this has to be on Minaya.
3. Hitting. This is the opposite of points (1) and (2) - here, we are way underperforming what we should be doing on paper. I think you have to look to Willie to lock in a lineup as best he can given all the injuries, and then Rick downs to provide more guidance. Plus, I'm sorry but you cannot have a guy batting as poorly as delgado in 4 slot or even 5. He's either still got a wrist injury, or his age has caught up to him, but either way what he's in now goes beyond simple slumping or pressing. I think he needs to be put in 6 or 7 spot for at least a solid month.
I'd go Reyes - Duke - Beltran - Wright - Green - Delgado - Easley -...
In any case, without trades to get a legit #1 pitcher or Crawford-type offense, I don't see us doing much in playoffs. Of course, we could always pull a Cards as Fredo mentions..
Also, I'd say right now the main reason we are cold is beltran, even more than reyes. Reyes' #s have at least steadied out, while Beltran continues to tank and do nothing. Having him and delgado as 3-4 is killing us, we're getting absolutely nothing out of them.
The bullpen is weak, but I think you're looking in the wrong place pinning it on not signing Oliver and Bradford.
Oliver had a much better season last year than Sele has had this year, but that doesn't matter all that much. Neither pitcher pitched in tight games or even games where the Mets had big leads. Oliver, towards the end of last year, got a few innings in a set up role, but he spit the bit and got put back in the long reliever slot.
Bradford was replaced with Smith, and it's hard to argue that Smith has been every bit as good as we could have expected Bradford to be, and at a fraction of the cost.
No, the problem with the pen has been with the guys who were retained to replicate their past performance, but have failed miserably.
Heilman: master of the belt high change.
Sanchez: master of the DL.
Mota: erstwhile master of the long suspension, now master of the 3-run jack.
Want to know why the bullpen's not been performing? Pine away about Bradford all you want, but Sanchez/Mota/Heilman are reasons 1, 2 and 3.
True, but here's why I blame Minaya: problems with all three of those guys could've been foreseen. Specifically:
(1) Heilman was always hit and miss, even last year, AND has always complained about being in the pen rather than a starter
(2) Much earlier this year I expressed concern about what numbers Mota would put up this year, noting that most guys have an off year when they come off the juice
(3) Even before he really ripped his arm earlier this year, at the end of last year it was unclear when we would get Sanchez back, and whether he would ever be serviceable again. It was definitely a bit of a dice roll..
Picking up Sele and Schoeneweis is really asking too much of Peterson. Sele is old and has never even had better than average numbers, while Scho is even worse. I understand that heading into this season Omar's view is that over the last three years the Mets laid out the big bucks to form their core, and therefore going forward they will not take on more significant additional salary - they are looking for role players. But I think the "core" is not quite as solid as it needs to be.
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