I am sick and tired of hearing Omar say the Mets pitching staff is fine, on the basis that we have Maine and Perez.
Minaya was referring to 26-year-olds John Maine and Oliver Perez, who, in his mind, both turned a corner last year.
Whether or not Maine and Perez have "turned a corner" is only a secondary point. The main point is Pedro, Duque, and #5. It is an absolute FACT that El Duque will be injured at some point next season, and most likely when we need him most. It is also a fact that we have no clear #5 starter, since Pelfrey seems incapable. Finally, and most importantly, you can't possibly know what to expect out of Pedro in terms of durability. I am pretty comfortable saying that if he is healthy, he'll be a legit #1 after seeing the way he pitched in September. But can anyone honestly feel comfortable that he will be in a position to pitch the whole season and post-season after coming off major surgery? That's a huge gamble in my mind, especially when your #2 is guaranteed to be injured.
Finally, Perez for me has only "turned a corner" when he stops his binomial distribution of pitching: either a gem or a bust. He needs some more stability and consistency. When he's on, he's simply unbelievable and perhaps our best pitcher. But without consistency, he can't be better than a #3 or #4 on a team that truly wants to contend for WS.
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query perez binomial. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query perez binomial. Sort by date Show all posts
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Back in action
Hey there Mets fans, I'm back in action (unlike the sun here apparently).
That was a huge Braves series for Mets last weekend, with the Mets picking up the wins against Hudson and Smoltz. Those are big wins for down the stretch, especially since we beat their #1 and 2 even without matching up against our #1 and 2. Definitely a nice effort.
I'm glad Wags did what Willie should be doing - tearing Perez and the rest of the team. Granted, he probably should have kept it to a closed players-only meeting, rather than the press. But it is about time the starting rotation and the offense got a verbal kick in the ass. The predictability of this 5 IP, 100 pitches routine is absurd, and the anemic averages from Beltran and Delgado are killers.
Fredo made a point in an earlier comment that the starters are basically on a 100 pitch count, which is why they are pulled when they are. I agree, but I'd say it's time to push that count up to 120 for a few starts for Perez and Pelfrey and maybe even Maine. Force them to step up and know before a game they are going to have to find a way to pitch more effectively. Either these pitchers simply don't have an effective out pitch (in which case we are not going to win the WS with them), or they aren't staying focused (in which case Wags is dead on). The bullpen is right to complain that they can't be expected to pick up 4 innings of every game except when Johan starts. The only pitcher I'd excuse from this is Figueroa, because I don't expect a ton from a 5th starter (who is realistically our 7th or 8th starter on depth charts), and he has been above and beyond what I'd expect from him.
As for Perez specifically, he is staying true to form. He continues to have a very binomial distribution, although this year even his best outings haven't been good since they have never gone beyond 6th inning. He's probably managed to drop at least $5 M off the annual salary he will command as a FA with his performance so far. My guess is the Braves will show the most interest in him, since he's been pretty solid against them and they could use a younger arm in the rotation.
That was a huge Braves series for Mets last weekend, with the Mets picking up the wins against Hudson and Smoltz. Those are big wins for down the stretch, especially since we beat their #1 and 2 even without matching up against our #1 and 2. Definitely a nice effort.
I'm glad Wags did what Willie should be doing - tearing Perez and the rest of the team. Granted, he probably should have kept it to a closed players-only meeting, rather than the press. But it is about time the starting rotation and the offense got a verbal kick in the ass. The predictability of this 5 IP, 100 pitches routine is absurd, and the anemic averages from Beltran and Delgado are killers.
Fredo made a point in an earlier comment that the starters are basically on a 100 pitch count, which is why they are pulled when they are. I agree, but I'd say it's time to push that count up to 120 for a few starts for Perez and Pelfrey and maybe even Maine. Force them to step up and know before a game they are going to have to find a way to pitch more effectively. Either these pitchers simply don't have an effective out pitch (in which case we are not going to win the WS with them), or they aren't staying focused (in which case Wags is dead on). The bullpen is right to complain that they can't be expected to pick up 4 innings of every game except when Johan starts. The only pitcher I'd excuse from this is Figueroa, because I don't expect a ton from a 5th starter (who is realistically our 7th or 8th starter on depth charts), and he has been above and beyond what I'd expect from him.
As for Perez specifically, he is staying true to form. He continues to have a very binomial distribution, although this year even his best outings haven't been good since they have never gone beyond 6th inning. He's probably managed to drop at least $5 M off the annual salary he will command as a FA with his performance so far. My guess is the Braves will show the most interest in him, since he's been pretty solid against them and they could use a younger arm in the rotation.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Tracking the #s
Updated #s:
3.15 / 2.00 / 1.78 / 5.79 / not fit for viewing
These are the ERAs of Johan, Pedro, Maine, Perez, and two guys who surely will do more to help us this season by riding the bench than playing.
At least the top 3 seem to be settling in, especially Maine. I have little reason to expect that Perez will be any different than his binomial jekyll/hyde routine from last year, alternating brilliant outings with stuff more fit for a compost heap. At this point I just don't even begin to know who you pick as the 5th starter. As I've already mentioned I don't see how Duque can possibly adjust at this age to an entirely new delivery, whereas Pelfrey appears to have made no progress from last year. Additionally, I think Sanchez is much further behind in his rehab than they are letting on, and we'll be lucky to even see him for half the season, which is a big hole for the 'pen.
3.15 / 2.00 / 1.78 / 5.79 / not fit for viewing
These are the ERAs of Johan, Pedro, Maine, Perez, and two guys who surely will do more to help us this season by riding the bench than playing.
At least the top 3 seem to be settling in, especially Maine. I have little reason to expect that Perez will be any different than his binomial jekyll/hyde routine from last year, alternating brilliant outings with stuff more fit for a compost heap. At this point I just don't even begin to know who you pick as the 5th starter. As I've already mentioned I don't see how Duque can possibly adjust at this age to an entirely new delivery, whereas Pelfrey appears to have made no progress from last year. Additionally, I think Sanchez is much further behind in his rehab than they are letting on, and we'll be lucky to even see him for half the season, which is a big hole for the 'pen.
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