NCAA Tourney

Weird year this year.  With the exception of Kentucky, lots of parity.

UK seems head-and-shoulders above the field, much like Duke 99 or Houston 83 (two teams, incidentally, that failed to win the natty).   Will UK fulfill Calipari's NC dream this year, at least temporarily?  Looks to me like U Conn and Baylor are the toughest teams in their way, at least until the final game.  The odds seem ever in their favor.

Meanwhile, the continued exodus of NBA talent from high major programs (except at Carolina) seems to have caught up with a lot of schools: parity is the word.  After Butler making two final games in a row, and VCU And George Mason going to the FF in recent years, I do not have a hard time believing that  schools like Xavier, New Mexico, UNLV, St. Mary's or Gonzaga could make a deep run.  Or that teams like Belmont, Harvard, or Davidson could win a game or two.   You cannot convince me that, say, Cincinnati is head-and-shoulders above San Diego St.  Just b/c Cinci plays in a high major gives them little.  I'm not convinced the level of play in Big East (after 'Cuse), ACC (after UNC), or B10 was much better than the Missouri Valley, A10, or Mountain West this year.

Anyhow, I hate to admit it, but this is the first year I haven't had Duke in the winner circle on my bracket.  I've always felt like they had a chance, even in the "down" years (by Duke standards).  This year, I don't see any chance.  Getting by X or ND is just a 50-50 proposition, and this team will not beat Baylor.  No chance.  Only way Duke gets to a FF is if UNLV takes out Baylor AND Conn takes out UK.  Slim, slim, odds--basically zero.

So who do I like this year?

I like the South bracket.  UK is the prohibitive favorite, IMO, and their loss to Vandy in the SEC tourney final was probably the last piece of the puzzle they needed.  Their young arrogant team may now have just enough incentive to listen to Cal and avoid getting sandbagged on the road to N'Awlins.

If it's not UK, I like Baylor second best to win the tournament.  That regional final could be an epic game.

Out of the West, I'm pretty chalk.  While Mich St. is probably not a 1-seed most years, they have Izzo, and that's usually worth 2 tourney wins on its own. And their region is pretty soft.  I like Mich St. to win the region, but Mizzou and 7-seed Florida are real threats as well.  I like 13-seed Davidson as the lowest seed to make the Sweet 16.

The East will be a bracket buster, IMO.  I like 8-see Kansas St. to take out 'Cuse early (again).  I'm going with Wisky in round 1 but Montana could upset them.   I like FSU to make the regional final in the bottom half of the bracket, and I like Vandy in the top half of the bracket.   I'll defer on picking the winner--get back to me if the game materializes.

UNC drew an absolute cakewalk through 3 rounds in the Midwest.  I could easily see Creighton beating Bama (score another one for mid-majors), and Temple getting past Cal or USF.  A second round Temple-Michigan game would be one to watch.  Ultimately irrelevant, as neither team can get past UNC (assuming Henson plays).  In the bottom half of the bracket, G'Town looks good for another early departure (doubt they'll see S16), and Kansas should roll into the Regional Final as well.  UNC-Kansas, in St. Louis, should be the other epic regional final (along w/ Baylor-UK), and I like Kansas to win.  They have the size to neutralize Zeller, and the better coach.

So my FF picks: UK, MSU, Vandy/FSU, Kansas.

Best chance to make FF from each power conference:

ACC: UNC
Big East: Marquette ('Cuse got a murderous draw)
SEC: UK (not an easy draw, but they can handle it)
B10: Mich State
B12: Mizzou (like their odds slightly better than KU at making FF b/c of the weak West regional; even though I've got KU and not Mizzou getting to FF)
PAC 12:   Whatever team can scream "Noonan" in unison.

If you've got any ideas how the PAC 12 could improve their odds, please let me knwo.