I am sick and tired of hearing Omar say the Mets pitching staff is fine, on the basis that we have Maine and Perez.
Minaya was referring to 26-year-olds John Maine and Oliver Perez, who, in his mind, both turned a corner last year.
Whether or not Maine and Perez have "turned a corner" is only a secondary point. The main point is Pedro, Duque, and #5. It is an absolute FACT that El Duque will be injured at some point next season, and most likely when we need him most. It is also a fact that we have no clear #5 starter, since Pelfrey seems incapable. Finally, and most importantly, you can't possibly know what to expect out of Pedro in terms of durability. I am pretty comfortable saying that if he is healthy, he'll be a legit #1 after seeing the way he pitched in September. But can anyone honestly feel comfortable that he will be in a position to pitch the whole season and post-season after coming off major surgery? That's a huge gamble in my mind, especially when your #2 is guaranteed to be injured.
Finally, Perez for me has only "turned a corner" when he stops his binomial distribution of pitching: either a gem or a bust. He needs some more stability and consistency. When he's on, he's simply unbelievable and perhaps our best pitcher. But without consistency, he can't be better than a #3 or #4 on a team that truly wants to contend for WS.
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And that's not even getting into a discussion about the pen, if we continue to rely on starters for only 6 innings, such that our bullpen is worn out by Sep. Who knows about Sanchez and Wags. Scho stinks, and Joe Smith is still unknown.
Starters are average to above average, pen is below average. Neither is championship caliber.
That's my evaluation, FWIW.
If we go into '08 with this roster, and don't make any major trades before all-star break, we're not making playoffs. Losing Milledge was a huge setback, I think, and we still have done nothing to shore up our rotation. Relying heavily on two guys coming off of major surgery (pedro + sanchez) is more of a gamble than I would like to take if I were the team owner.
We've taken a step backwards at C. We've failed to improve in RF where a replacement-level player would probably have been an improvement. We have a LF who can't be counted on to play 100 games, and one whose production will likely decrease. We have a 2B who will most likely miss significant time due to injury, and who has been playing on chronically damaged knees and hips for years, and looked like a gimp towards the end of last season.
Our #1 and #2 SP's have been MIA for 2 straight years.
Our closer is losing his zip, our set up guy has good stuff but seems to serve up the gopher-ball, and middle relief is a joke. Sanchez? Pls.
I'm expecting a step backwards in '08.
And maybe it makes more sense to just eat a bad year than deal away our youth when their value is low.
Here's what makes it interesting: with the new Citi Field opening in '09, the last thing Wilpon wants is a down '08. He basically told Omar that his job (and Willie's) was linked to next year. On the one hand, I'm not sure Wilpon would actually follow through and S-can Omar if we don't make playoffs in '08 (I'd guess he'd keep him anyway), but at the same time it will be a major disappointment if this team fails to make the playoffs again, especially given their payroll.
I agree with Fredo that mortgaging the future just to do well next year doesn't make much sense though, especially since the trade value of all our prospects took a major step backwards in '07. At the end of the day I blame Omar for putting us in this difficult spot, based on the moves he made in '06 and '07. He was too confident in old players, and too optimistic that injuries wouldn't occur. Also, making moves like "Lima time" instead of honestly acknowledging a hole in your rotation doesn't help anyone. To some extent Willie's unwillingness to play a rookie over a veteran, regardless of the situation, I think also hurt us in terms of player development (particularly Milledge).
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