With regards to why the Jetties blow this season, I mostly agree with Fredo. But a few other points:
1. While the issue was not the offense per se, there is no question that at least one of Sanchez and Schott is a bust. Perhaps both. Despite the poor D, if we had a top 10 QB this team would be in solid position to make the playoffs. See the Pats. Sanchez's major regression this year is IMO a sign that he's topped out, or Schott doesn't know how to run an offense. Either way, one of those two should not be with the team next year. Jets have too many skill players in positions around Sanchez to not have scored more.
2. Tannenbaum definitely deserves heat for recent offseason moves. First, too many changes in the past two years. They are ruining team chemistry and losing locker room leaders. As just one example, the idea of asking Brad Smith to "wait" until they figured out Nnamdi was insulting at best, and complete managerial incompetence at worst. Losing his skills on ST, QB and WR hurt us.
3. I never liked the Cromartie pick up. He's only good at covering one thing - a straight fly pattern. Other than that, he's always getting beat.
4. IMO Jets placed way too much importance on Santonio in the offseason. He's a great WR, but not top 5. He has hurt team chemistry with his selfishness.
5. Jets secondary is not good, with the obvious exception of Revis. They get beat a lot, and struggle to make open field tackles.
6. Jets need a true pass rushing DE. Period. They waste too many players bringing blitzes to get even moderate QB pressure, and still often fail to bring down the QB.
Bottom line, in this year's draft Jets need to focus on defensive ends and secondary. I also think it's time to switch out Schott and try another direction. Sanchez seems to perform best under two-minute drills, yet they rarely go to no huddle and try to push the tempo. I don't think Schott is properly running this offense with the personnel he has.
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As for predictions, there's simply no way to call the Jets-Fish game Sunday. Any outcome would not surprise me. Jets could lay down and get steamrolled. Alternatively, given how bad the Fins are and the fact that Jets still have a chance, their veteran players could step up and give them a huge boost. A Jets woodshed beating of the Fins wouldn't surprise me at all.
One game that is easy to call, however, is Penn-Duke. Clearly Penn will whip the dookies like a rented mule.
Hmmm...
Points of agreement:
1. Pass rush is weak in base sets.
2. Too much roster turnover, too little emphasis on leadership and character when making roster decisions.
3. Sanchez regressed this year.
4. Santonio has hurt chemistry with selfishness this year.
Points of difference:
1. Schott and Sanchez will be back. OL is weak, and bears some responsibility for lack of development by Sanchez. B/c of OL, running game has gotten weaker, hence play action less effective. Sanchez has been under tremendous pressure all season, particularly against teams that blitz at all. I'm unhappy that Sanchez didn't progress, and the offense didn't improve, but I'm not sure you can pull the plug on Schott or Sanchez yet. Hell, two weeks ago, the "Schott's getting an HC gig" noise was all heating up again. Gotta give it one more year to see if the line can get it together and Sanchez can get things moving in the right direction. There's not going to be a more likely scenario to get to improved results in the span of one season, IMO.
2. Disagree completely on Cromartie. When his head's on straight and he's concentrating (read: not picking up 4 penalties a game, as he did once this year), he might be the best cover guy in the league for a #2 CB. He's got tremendous length and excellent speed. Bad tackler, though, I'll give you that.
3. Need for a DL. OK, what team doesn't need a stud DE that can bring pressure. And if one was out there for the Jets to grab, by all means. But to me, the need is simply for an impact defender up front, whether it be on the line or LB.
When you run a 3-4 set, the lineman need to be stout. The pass rushing usually comes from the 4th rusher (e.g., not a blitzer), an LB that can move around. Think L.T. on the Giants, or Rickey Jackson with the Dome Patrol. Calvin Pace was supposed to be that guy--he's not.
That's the problem with our D, in my opinion. We have 7 good players in our front 7, but not one real impact player that's a game changer. A guy that can shed blockers and explode to the ball carrier. I don't care what position that guy comes from, line or LB, but we need to get one.
4. I think the secondary is excellent, particularly with Leonhard. The Jets scheme routinely leaves guys matched up with no help in single coverage. And they do a great job. Most of the time you see a big play going against it's because the QB sat in the pocket for 6 seconds and caught a guy on a double-move, or on a release after the pattern was covered. I think our front 7 is much weaker than our secondary.
Losing key guys to injuries also needs to be remembered. Every team deals with it, but we lost Bryan Thomas for the season, Leonhard again, Revis played through injuries the first few weeks, Devito and Pouha missed games, and most damaging, Mangold missed games early on leading to Sanchez getting his confidence shattered. I really do not think he's been right since the Baltimore game, and I mean neurologically.
If I had a choice, I'd say we need to go get an impact front-7 defender, a new Right Tackle, and some depth at DB and WR (Turner should never see the field).
Ultimately, player moves won't matter, because this team is topped out under Rex. Playoffs is our ceiling-- this team cannot sustain excellence b/c they get too full of themselves after a win, don't go hard in practice as evidenced by the fact that they don't bring it against mediocre competition. Even when perfectly constructed, they will lose 5 games and have to go through the playoffs on the road.
Football has ALWAYS been a game of blood, effort, and execution. There is a reason the best coaches can take crappy teams and turn them around on a dime. They make guys play harder, and have less tolerance for mental errors. Is Rex that kind of coach?
As for Duke-Penn: you never know. If the Blue Devils can just hang in long enough, keep it to single digits, let some game pressure build up on the Quakers... A lucky bounce here, a good call there... Duke could pull the upset.
I'm just saying, crazier things have happened.
Duke could pull the upset.
C'mon now, let's not go totally nuts. Let's try to maintain some semblance of credibility and reasonableness on this blog.
SHK, credibility went out the window in your 1st comment: "given how bad the Fins are..."
Jets are 8-7 with a +16 point differential this season.
Fins are 5-10 with a +14 point differential.
That is not a stat for a bad team, but rather a snakebit team.
It'll be interesting to see what happens Sunday and how thie postseason unfolds...
From week 7 on, the Fins are 5-5. Only one of those wins are against a team that is still a playoff possible going into wk 17 (Oakland). However, 4 of the 5 losses were against teams that are still playoff possibles heading into this last week, and all 4 of those of losses were by 3 points or less. This team has played very competitive football over the last two months, and almost beat the Pats last week. I would be surprised to see the Jets win with the way they've been playing.
That said, erratic focus and effort have been the norm for the Ryan Jets have been about, and usually they've risen to the occasion with backs against the wall (until the last two weeks). I think he's losing his grip on this team and the melodramatic emoting is losing its impact on his players. I expect a Fins a win but will be hoping for a Jets win (yes, I'll be that guy, who can either rejoice in a victory or say "I told you so").
*That said, erratic focus and effort have been the norm for the Ryan Jets, but usually they've risen...
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