Taking stock of the Mets

The Mets are presently an uninspiring 20-18, 3rd place in NL East and middle of the road or worse in pretty much all statistical categories. The question is, are they a solid team that is simply in a funk, or is this about all we can expect from this team?

The short (and bad news) answer is that this may not be a funk. Here are some interesting records:

2006 1st half: 53-36
2006 2nd half: 44-29
2007 1st half: 48-39
2007 2nd half: 40-35
2008: 20-18

While 20-18 is underwhelming, it is unfortunately the exact same winning percentage the Mets put up for the entire 2nd half of '07. Thus, they have been playing to the same level of mediocrity for 4 straight months now. To me, that is enough data to represent a solid baseline, not a fluke that they can just "shake off".

What's different from '06? It doesn't seem to be BA or OBP: .258 and .341 in '08 vs. .264 and .334 in '06. It's not SO or BB either: we're on track to have exact same # of Ks with more BBs. Fielding is about the same: 112 E in '06 vs. target of 119 in '08.

One answer seems to be clutch hitting: we were getting an extra RBI every 2-3 games in '06. What about pitching? ERA in '08 is actually slightly lower, while Ks are the same but BBs are up in '08 by 23%. Another answer might be luck: we won 6 more games than our pythagorean expected based on runs scored/given up.

My guess is this "luck" had more to do with a solid bullpen preserving leads. At the end of the day I think the reason we won slightly more games than expected in '06 and we're not doing it in '08 (or end of '07) is due to Darren Oliver, Duaner Sanchez, Guillermo Mota, Chad Bradford, Heilman, Feliciano, and Roberto Hernandez. Those guys were all lights out, and except for Feliciano they are no longer with us or not doing well this year.

So, the upshot is that if Omar wants to squeeze more wins out of this team, he better focus on bolstering the bullpen with some in-season acquisitions or trades.

Roster Moves

Mets demoted Sosa and Figueroa, and are trying to trade Sosa (who would want him?). Pagan is hurt and sent to the DL. Wise, Vargas, and TATIS! are back with the big league club. F Tat will make us forget about Gotay yet--you just wait and see.

I'm soooooo very pleased that Omar dropped the loony story he was floating to the league that he was going to drop Joe Smith to the minors once Wise came back--I'm sure that was just to avoid letting on that Sosa was a minor league player now, and taking any chance of a trade off the table.

And by the way, what's with the velocity of our releivers? Sanchez is topping out at 88, and Wise was topping out at 83 tonight. That ain't gonna get it done. Scho and Smith continue to get the job done. I feel like I haven't seen Feliciano pitch in a month. What is that guy in witness protection or something? And Wagner continues to be lights out, despite the roughh outing the other night brought on by the olde fielding error.

Wright slumping

Bart Hubbuch has an interesting column on Wright's recent 9-for-58 (.155) skid in the Post:

...the weight of his recent rough stretch - and the Mets' hitting woes overall - is starting to wear on the third baseman.

"I can't do what I've been doing, which is to ride that emotional roller coaster where I'm living and dying with every at-bat," said Wright, a career .309 hitter who is batting just .262 this season. "I know there are going to be streaks."

...No one is taking Wright's drought harder than the 25-year-old himself. He was one of the first Mets to show up four hours before a game at Dodger Stadium this week to take extra batting practice, and he continues to work constantly with hitting coach Howard Johnson to find a solution.

"He's just been over-swinging," Johnson said. "That's going to happen in the course of a year. We'll keep making adjustments. He's going to get back to going off the way he used to do. I'm convinced of that."

Glad to hear that he takes his job seriously and is showing up early for B.P., but does self-flagellation help in this situation?

It makes me (and most fans) feel better, but is the player who sleeps well at night whether he hits for the cycle or takes an o-fer more likely to rebound from a slump than one who is "living and dying with each AB"?

Just wondering...

Guess who?

Guess who's #1 in NL with 34 RBIs right now?

A: The x-man, xavier nady. He's also got the 5th best BA in NL.

Pretty surprising, considering how bad the pirates are.

And so it continues..

Good stuff

Take 2 of 3 from D-backs, wagner is throwing some filthy stuff, and church absolutely had a gun from foul territory to throw burke out at 3rd on that overthrow error by feliciano.

Chip caray...

...is by far the most annoying announcer in all of sports. Besides the fact that he is a complete tool and knows nothing about baseball, he is just downright irritating. Stupid statements like "there goes the no-hit bid" when johan gives up a single in the first inning are typical of his mind-numbingly dumb commentary. I always hated having to listen to him call mets-braves games on TBS.

Back in action

Hey there Mets fans, I'm back in action (unlike the sun here apparently).

That was a huge Braves series for Mets last weekend, with the Mets picking up the wins against Hudson and Smoltz. Those are big wins for down the stretch, especially since we beat their #1 and 2 even without matching up against our #1 and 2. Definitely a nice effort.

I'm glad Wags did what Willie should be doing - tearing Perez and the rest of the team. Granted, he probably should have kept it to a closed players-only meeting, rather than the press. But it is about time the starting rotation and the offense got a verbal kick in the ass. The predictability of this 5 IP, 100 pitches routine is absurd, and the anemic averages from Beltran and Delgado are killers.

Fredo made a point in an earlier comment that the starters are basically on a 100 pitch count, which is why they are pulled when they are. I agree, but I'd say it's time to push that count up to 120 for a few starts for Perez and Pelfrey and maybe even Maine. Force them to step up and know before a game they are going to have to find a way to pitch more effectively. Either these pitchers simply don't have an effective out pitch (in which case we are not going to win the WS with them), or they aren't staying focused (in which case Wags is dead on). The bullpen is right to complain that they can't be expected to pick up 4 innings of every game except when Johan starts. The only pitcher I'd excuse from this is Figueroa, because I don't expect a ton from a 5th starter (who is realistically our 7th or 8th starter on depth charts), and he has been above and beyond what I'd expect from him.

As for Perez specifically, he is staying true to form. He continues to have a very binomial distribution, although this year even his best outings haven't been good since they have never gone beyond 6th inning. He's probably managed to drop at least $5 M off the annual salary he will command as a FA with his performance so far. My guess is the Braves will show the most interest in him, since he's been pretty solid against them and they could use a younger arm in the rotation.

Willie to Wags: Zip it! (wink, wink)

If you were to read the words that Willie gave the press, you'd probably think he followed through on the public repudiation of Wags that I was expecting:

"[Wagner] can respond however he wants, but I just told him I thought it was something that should have been kept in-house," Randolph said. "That's how I do business."

But by mixing his messages and granting Wagner the right to trash his teammate, one can surmise that Willie was pretty happy that Wags spoke up, even if Willie can't say so publicly:

"I wouldn't go that route, but that's Billy," Randolph said. "Billy gets a little emotional at times. If he feels that way, that's fine."

Wagging His Tongue

So Wags wants to "stir the pot", eh? Those are his words, by the way.

Going public on the radio to trash a teammate--not his results, mind you, but his effort--is bound to stir the pot and roil the clubhouse.

Billy Wagner expanded on his blunt criticism of Oliver Perez Thursday during his weekly radio spot, saying the Mets will go nowhere this year if the enigmatic lefthander doesn't learn how to battle through his own troubles.

In his weekly interview with Michael Kay on 1050 ESPN Radio, Wagner said Perez has to hold himself accountable for lasting only 12/3 innings Wednesday when the team desperately needed length. "You have to be able to look at yourself and say, 'Is that the best I can do?"' he said.

Speaking before the Mets' chartered flight to Arizona, Wagner said he and others approached Perez before Wednesday's game and told him they needed length.

But what Wagner saw was a pitcher who didn't have his best stuff and didn't fight his way through it. "If he goes out there and battles and comes up short, you know what, we're not going to have a problem with that," he said. "But you have to battle. You have to go out there and find a way."

Wagner's statements may not have helped his clubhouse reputation as a talker -- "I'm probably the least favorite guy in the clubhouse," he said -- but he is not worried about any ramifications. He expected Mets manager Willie Randolph to request a private meeting before the flight, and he seemed more than willing to express the same sentiments to him.

"I want to win and I know everyone in that clubhouse wants to win," Wagner said, "but sometimes you've got to say something. You might have to stir the pot."

Now this is where I expect Willie to have very little flexibility. This kind of stuff is unacceptable. Wags can say whatever he wants to Perez, but keep it behind closed doors. Start a media circus and we'll get four months of the Flushing Zoo.

Wow

Perez managed to walk 5 in 1.2 IP.

So that's 3 dominant performances, and 3 disasters (with this most recent one the worst by a long way)

Q: Do we still need to lock him up NOW?

A Rainout!

No loss, AND the pen gets an extra day rest.

God is good.

I like Church

Figured I'd keep up the positive vibe.

Just another day at the office.

Delgado: 2 HR
Feliciano/Smith/Scho: 0 ER's
Castillo: 3 hits
Figuerosa: Win
Smoltz: Loss

Big players make big plays in big games

What's the Deal?

1. What's the deal with Heilman? Is he just sucking big time this year, or is part of it related to the fact that he is the most used reliever in baseball? (A stat which Willie apparently "didn't know" when it was brought to his attention the other day.)

2. What's the deal with Mets starters and only lasting 5 innings? To be honest, I think part of this is Willie's fault. He has made it clear that his style is that his starters only need to go 5 or 6 innings, and then they can expect the pen to take over. I wonder what would happen if before a game Willie said to Perez or Pelfrey, I don't care how many runs you've given up, I don't care how many pitches you've thrown, you are lasting 7 innings in this game no matter what. It is time to stop coddling these guys and start demanding more out of them. By setting the bar so low you are not forcing them to figure out how to pitch more effectively. Perez has not gotten past the 6th inning in any of his starts this year. That is flat unacceptable, and a huge drain on the bullpen. I think it is up to Willie to throw down the gauntlet and challenge his starters to step up and anticipate that they will be expected to throw at least 7 innings every game. Otherwise nothing changes, and we'll be in the same place at the end of this year as last year: a depleted bullpen.

That's not gonna be good for anyone

Jose Reyes is now 0 for forever. When you can't even hit the batting tees that the Nats call a pitching staff, you've got problems.

Nice move

I of course hate the Yankees and the Red Sox more than anyone on the planet, but I have to give huge credit here. This was an extremely classy move by the Yankees management; there were many other things they could've done with the buried Ortiz jersey, so to donate it to the Red Sox main cancer charity (Jimmy Fund) and raise $175 K in an auction is a top shelf move by them.

Showdown at the OK Corral

This is great:

The Mets and Braves manager Bobby Cox could be headed for a showdown when Atlanta arrives for a weekend series at Shea Stadium tomorrow. Cox is known for smoking cigars, while the Mets have instituted a very strict no-smoking policy throughout Shea and at Citi Field when it opens in 2009. When advised of the policy this week, Cox told the Associated Press that "the clubhouse doesn't count." The Mets say they disagree.

This really puts it into perspective

Here are some shocking numbers posted over on the Geek. I had a feeling this trend was generally true but didn't realize the actual splits were so severe (assuming their numbers are correct, I didn't check).

With Castillo batting second: the Mets are 2-8 (including a 7 game losing streak)
With Pagan batting second: the Mets are 3-1
With Church batting second: the Mets are 5-0

I realize it's hard to place enormous confidence in Church and Pagan's numbers because it is such a small sample set, and they likely will decline over time. But with this team's offense struggling so mightily, I think sometimes Willie can be too stubborn for his own good. Castillo has no business being in #2 slot until he is batting at least .280. We simply don't have the luxury of "on the job training/rehab" for Delgado, Beltran and Castillo. This division is going to be way too tight down the stretch for us to afford throwing games away.

Carlos Delgado must go..

..to the bottom of the batting order, right next to his buddy Luis. He is killing us. And it took Willie way too long to realize that last year and drop him in the order; he needs to act sooner this year.

More thoughts

1. Someone (HoJo) better talk to Reyes and tell him to start taking more pitches. He only has 3 BBs and an OBP of .320 that is not getting it done as a leadoff hitter.

2. Putting Castillo in the 2 slot is Willie at his stubborn worst. It doesn't protect Jose, and it kills rallies. My suggested order: Reyes, Church (contact hitter), Wright, Beltran, Pagan (until Alou is back), Delgado, Schneider, Castillo. I completely disagree with the philosophy of sprinkling your bad hitters throughout the lineup, I think it gives the opposing pitcher too much opportunity to pitch around good hitters and focus on getting the bad ones out. I'd rather put a lot of pressure on a pitcher with our 1-5 slots, and hope that if we start a rally the pitcher will become unnerved, possibly improving the chances for the 6-8 slots.

3. The Mets cannot carry this much deadwood on their roster all season. Having Alou back should be great, but it doesn't help as much because it forces us to remove one of the few hot bats on the team. If at least one of Beltran, Delgado, and Castillo doesn't turn it around, the Mets are going to have to either promote Carp or start shopping for a legit contact hitter who can provide .300+. These inning-ending GIDPs are killing us.

4. Some of the bullpen is either: (a) already worn down, (b) still carrying the baggage of '07 into '08, or (c) just not that good. Take your pick, but in any case it is going to be an unavoidable problem when we face good teams down the stretch and in the playoffs.

And there it is...

The proverbial 5th inning meltdown by Pelfrey. I knew he had it in him.

Nice to see the pitch count up at 100 by inning 5 again. I suppose there's something to be said for consistency.

Some thoughts

1. ESPN shows way too many shots from behind home plate. You can't see crap from that angle, they are way too far out. Their camera angles stink, and they take too long to zero back in on the batter.

2. Willie is killing me with Castillo back in #2. He is going to do everything in his power to sink this team. I just don't get it. Church is working out well in two spot, why mess with it? Now you have a garbage average hitting behind Reyes, which is a double blow. First, Reyes will be getting much worse pitches, and second, any possible big inning rally we could have with Reyes-Church-Wright-Beltran is now effectively dead. I'd much rather eat a weak 7-8-9 in the order than kill the whole lineup. We need to concentrate our good hitters in the order rather than spreading them throughout the lineup. Especially with delgado and beltran both chewing it now, we really could use a solid 1-3.

Aaron Heilman

just earned his paycheck for the month with two big Ks in the 8th innings, bases loaded against philthies..

Great quote from wags yesterday: "They were booing so loud, I thought Schoeneweis was running in with me," Wagner...said of the reaction he received from the crowd during his ninth-inning appearance.

Like Playin' In the Driveway

My favorite play from last night's game (key point--I was listening to this on FAN while in the car):
Wright on 3rd, Beltran on 2nd, Pagan at the plate.
Drive to the outfield that drops in for a double. Wright scores as Pagan rolls in with a double, Beltran is standing on 3rd...what? Wait a minute...
I turn to Mrs. DC and say "What the hell? Are they playing whiffle ball? Do you have to force in all runners?"
Once she stopped laughing it was stated that I would have to relate this anecdote to those who would appreciate it (thus this post).
In hindsight, I do understand that it was questionable if the ball was going to be caught and Beltran was being properly cautious. Additionally, Howie said that Chase Utley was the most surprised person in the park to see Pagan standing behind him--great hustle, Angel--so the play was a paradigm of good baserunning (both cautious and aggressive).

That's some heady company

From Mets.com:

Though it's early, Wright (.333, four homers, 17 RBIs) seems to be on his way to another .300 season after registering 25 homers and 100 RBIs in each of his first three seasons.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Wright is one of eight players to accomplish this feat before the age of 25, along with Joe DiMaggio (four times), Albert Pujols (four times), Mel Ott, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Vladimir Guerrero and Miguel Cabrera.

Heath Bell Watch

0-1, 0.84 ERA, .200 BAA, 4 Hld (9G/10.2IP/8H/2BB/4K).

Meanwhile, his partner in crime, Royce Ring, is getting bombed in Hotlanta.

Remember this one?

Adkins: Pitched one scoreless inning for the Mets last year. Now is apparently back in the Reds minor league system.

Johnson: After riding the interstate last season in the bigs, hit .270 at AAA and was a non-roster invitee to camp this year. I can't figure out where he is now and may be out of the league.

Hot Stove Pre-Season: Needs Edition

According to the Mets Geek Payroll Spreadsheet, we'll be freeing up $41.5 Mil in payroll this offseason with the departures of Alou, Delgado, Pedro, and El Duque.

What will our needs be?

Well, we know that we will have Santana and Maine back in the rotation, and Pelfrey should still be in the rotation, but not a lock to be a top 3 starter. So we need two starters, of which Perez may well be one.

If Carp keeps punishing the ball in AA, and later this season, AAA, he'll be given a shot to replace Delgado in the spring next year, saving lots 'o cash.

I don't think the lineup can suffer through having two position players who can't hit (the now crippled Castillo and Schneider), so I think the Mets are going to have to eat a big cash loss and go get a new 2B in the offseason. That should become a lot more clear as the year goes on and Castillo spends 20 to 40 games on the DL.

If Pagan can continue his solid play, the Mets look like they're settled in the OF for now, and Angel can keep F Mart's place warm unitl 2010 or so.

Bullpen: Heilman's under our control until 2010. Wagner, Sanchez, and the Scho are all under contract (control in Sanchez's case) until after the 2009 seaon. Joe Smith and Feliciano are under our control for a while, I would think, though not sure. Same with Burgos, Muniz, Padilla and Vargas if they're healthy and contributing ("ifs," I know).

Wise and Sosa are the only folks we lose at the end of this year, so hopefully a couple of the "ifs" mentioned above can step forward next year. Else we might need to cherry pick a reliever somewhere, but it shouldn't have to be a big ticket guy.

So the needs are these: 2 SP's (one of which is a front-liner), 2B, and maybe a reliver if the right situation presents itself. If you figure 25% of the freed up payroll will go to existing player increases (just a WAG), that would leave about $30 Mil on the table for signings.

SP/2B/and RP options....

Coming soon.

You My Figeur-oa!

Another nice outing by the Coney Island kid. I'll take 7 IP, 2 runs, 3 hits, 2 walks, 5 k's from what amounts to a #5 any day. Even more impressive is that he's technically standing in for a #2.

Gotta see more of this guy (can't call him a kid since he's a month younger than me--well, maybe I can...) but so far, me likey!

Not much else to say--just had a funny post title and tried to throw something in here...

Oh yeah, and Pelfrey threw 7 scoreless innings!

Plowing through your beanfields

Down on the farm, some good news for Los Mets:

Two 1B's at Binghamton:

Mike Carp (AA) in 51 AB's, .451/4/15
Nick Evans (AA) in 50 AB's, .420/3/18

Our up and coming ace ;) at Binghamton:

Jon Niese (AA) in 3 GS, 1-0 0.57 ERA, 15.2 IP, 4BB/14K, 0.77 WHIP

Struggling:

F Mart (AA) .214 / 0 HR, Anderson Hernandez (AAA) .200 in 60 AB, Tatis (AAA) .234 in 47 ABs (though he's got 6 dingers).