Fundamentals

Top 1st, Milledge on 1st, 1 out. Wright rips a double down left field line, so Milledge gets to third. 2nd and 3rd, 1 out, Beltran then Alou due up, right? Wrong. Either Sandy Alomar got the hold sign up late, or Milledge ran through it, but either way one of those two blew it and Milledge rounded third to head home. Of course, the cut-off throw was in fast and milledge was caught between 3rd and home, then tagged out. Wright on 3rd, 2 out. Ultimately no runs in, wasted opportunity. Mets need to be crisper on this sort of execution.

Billy

Well, billy escaped another close one last night.. Hopefully the last few weeks were just a blip on his season, and not a return of the poor control we saw last year, particularly in playoffs.

Resurrection of Anderson

Anderson Hernandez, that is. The stats show that as the minor league schedule moves into the home stretch, he's hitting .293 with a .724 OPS in Nawlins. Basically a good-not-great contact hitter at the AAA level.

That means he's finally regained the form he had in '05 (.303/.733) at Norfolk, before his disastrous first stint with the big league club (6G, 1-for-18) seemed to send him down the rabbit hole. He's only now emerging.

A good AAA hitter could well translate to an average ML contact hitter. Maybe with some continued refinement of his eye, and an improved ability to pick up pitches, he could even be a good ML contact hitter. The possibility is enticing, b/c he's such a great glove with a great sense for how to field. You know Omar and especially Willie want to be strong up-the-middle defensively, and would trade a good bat and poor fielding 2B (Gotay, in their eyes) for a great-fielding average-hitting 2b. Whether a resurgent Hernandez will prove to be the 2b of the future and make Gotay trade bait, or be trade bait himself, is unknown. What is known is that his improvement is a boon to the organization's depth, and one more card up Omar's sleeve.

The wright stuff

By the way, has anyone checked out wright's stats lately? They are incredible, without even taking into consideration that he had a miserable first 4-6 weeks of the season.

.311 / .404 / .520 / 22 HR / 81 RBI / 86 R / 28 SB and only 3 CS.

Pretty solid stuff..

Enter Conine

The Mets acquired Jeff Conine for the playoff run, after Damion Easley went down with a 3rd degree sprain.

Conine has played 1st base for the most part this year, and has played 3rd and OF in the past. Some more on his #'s:

He appeared in 80 games with the Reds this season, his 18th in the big leagues. He batted .265 with a .409 slugging percentage in 215 at-bats. He had 32 RBIs and six home runs among his 18 extra-base hits. He had walked 20 times and struck out 28 times.

Conine batted .264 in 87 at-bats against right-handed pitching and .266 in 128 against left-handed pitching. But all but three of his extra-base hits, including all his home runs, came against left-handed pitchers.

He had played first base almost exclusively -- all but five of his 436 2/3 innings in the field. He played four innings in one appearance at third and one in one appearance at first. He started 50 games at first.

He was quite productive as a pinch-hitter -- a .409 average with four RBIs and no home runs in 22 at-bats.

He should fit in well as someone who can spell Delgado, and more importantly, be an experienced PH guy. Shawn Green is now completely expendable. Has he cleared waivers yet?

BTW, the trade bait were Port St Lucie (high A) farmhands Sean Henry (22 yr old OF) and Jose Castro (20 year old SS).

Castro hit .219 last year for Hagerstown (A), but is up to .318 for St. Lucie this year. Henry is hitting .293 w/ 11 HR's this year. Based on the numbers, both players seem likely to advance in the Reds' farm system, but I haven't seen any scouting reports on whether these guys have big-league tools.

On second thought, I just found two rankings of the Mets farm system (here and here) and the second had Henry ranked as the 13th best prospect in the system (C+ rating). No mention of Castro.

Castillo

Looks like the Castillo trade has been paying dividends.

Now, if you're Omar, do you lock him up for 2-3 years, or are his gimpy knees and hips too big a risk?

What the...

This is just getting silly now:

Damion Easley became the latest member of the Mets to fall victim to injury after spraining his ankle during Saturday's game.
Doctors diagnosed it as a third-degree sprain, which will almost certainly end his season.

Anyone else think the chances of dealing for Conine just went up considerably?

Waiver wire wheels and steals

From Jayson Stark via espen:

Pitchers who have cleared: Steve Trachsel, Jose Contreras, Josh Towers, Odalis Perez.

Position players who have cleared: Troy Glaus, Jack Wilson, Pat Burrell, Dmitri Young, Omar Vizquel, Jeff Conine, Mike Piazza, Wily Mo Pena, Jason Lane.

Pitchers who were claimed and withdrawn: Jon Garland, Javier Vazquez, Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls, David Riske, Kei Igawa, Matt Thornton.

Position players who were claimed and withdrawn: Miguel Tejada, Mark Loretta, Jacque Jones, Scott Hatteberg, Richie Sexson, Mike Lamb, Corey Patterson.

Could there be a role for Burrell or Pena? Put another way, will Alou stay healthy?

Dang it

Darn. Darn. Darn.

The Offense

The problem with this offense is too much focus on going yard, too little emphasis on (less flashy) singles and doubles. Let's compare this lineup to '86.

1. HRs. The most HRs on '86 team was Straw with 27. Carter was #2 with 24, no one else had over 20. The team scored 783 runs, while the '07 Mets are only on pace to score 762 runs. The '07 team needs to understand that you don't need HRs to drive in runs, and further that such an attitude is actually counter-productive and costing them runs in key spots.

2. I think the largest area where '07 Mets stink is attitude and skills of #2 and #3 batters. This is the biggest discrepancy between '86 and '07. In '86 we had Backman (.320 / .376 / 32 Ks) and Hernandez (.310 / .413 / 69 Ks) at #2 and #3. In '07 we've had a turnstile of personnel here with no stability, and it's particularly the 3-hole that's a killer. One positive about PLD in #2 is his low strikeout rate, and willingness to take strikes to allow Reyes to steal. But his .310 OBP is killing us this year. Even worse, at #3 Beltran vs. Hernandez is a non-starter. Beltran's career #s of .279/.353/116 Ks per season is not getting it done. What we need in 3-hole is a CLUTCH hitter, who is looking to avoid strikeouts and simply smack a single. Drive in Reyes, and get on base for the big bats. I would say we are dying to have a traditional contact hitter for the 3 spot. If he wasn't so inexperienced I would like to put Milledge in this spot. I'd say this is potentially a better lineup:

1. Reyes
2. Castillo or Gotay
3. Milledge (might be too soon to move him, this is for future)
4. Wright
5. Alou
6. Beltran
7. Delgado
8. PLD
9. Pitcher

I hate dropping the power of Beltran and Delgado to 6-7, but the simple fact remains that their averages are KILLING US. They are rally killers of the worst kind - if they don't go yard, they are an automatic out or even worse DP. We can't afford to have 3-4-5 be easy outs, swinging for fences and avoiding easy RBI opportunities when a simple single would do.

willie

so long as willie continues to insist on putting mota into games where glavine leaves with a lead, i will continue to hate willie.

milledge is excellent.

Mr. Met...

...is about to get his due. Well done, I say, well done.

Chipper jones

Isn't it about time for Larry to retire?

Smoltz on Glavine

As featured in the NY Post:

"The biggest thing I learned over the years of watching many games and watching him go through tough times on and off the field, I gained a sense of workmanlike attitude that allowed him to be successful in any endeavor," Smoltz said. "He was the magician for awhile. He'd get out of jams. The Houdini. And then he was basically an artist the way he pinpointed everything and he just really mastered the art of pitching with what some people considered less than dominant stuff.

"And to see that time in and time again, you realized that it wasn't luck. It wasn't something that we scored a ton of runs for him or anything like that. He just flat out knew how to win and he wouldn't give in. And he wouldn't give in to the circumstances that most people would have given in to.

"I don't really know when I thought . . . he'd win 300 games. His ability to pitch hurt, his ability to keep pitching was probably the first thing I thought of.

"I think it was one of his Cy Young years. . . . He had a cracked rib. And a lot of people didn't know it. And he pitched through it. And he got his series of treatment and shots. And he pitched through it. And he took a lot of criticism for some of the games that he pitched. But nobody knew the extent of the injury. And he went about his business like it was no big deal. I think, if memory serves me well, that he won the Cy Young that year. But I know he won 20...

"His stoic kind of personality may seem that he's unapproachable and that he's this stern guy that led the baseball players union and the strike. That to me I wish there was a way to undo so that he didn't have to bear some of that responsibility. Because that is not an accurate assessment. I think anyone who plays with him knows what you get as a teammate and how much he cares about the game and cares about people."

The rest of the article can be found here.

Best of 5

In a best of 5 series, who are your first three starters, assuming Pedro is healthy and showing signs of being the ace? Tough call for sure. I think El Duque has to be #2, given his success this season and overall post-season success. For #3 is Glavine's veteran presence enough for you to give him the nod, or are you concerned his pitching ability just isn't there anymore (especially if he's got an ump calling a tight strike zone, totally negating his usefulness)? I might have to go with Maine #3. When Perez is on I'd put him up against anyone in the rotation, but he's still proving to be too erratic. I'd probably go Glavine #4 leaving Perez as odd man out, unless Pedro is no good.

One good thing: both Maine and Perez were called upon to pitch in extremely high-pressure playoff situations last year, and both came through. So at least it won't be their first go-around this year.

Quote

"We went out there and got beat," Wright said. "It's one game."

Well, I'd like to be so optimistic and agree with you David, but unfortunately there's another 9 games of history with the Mets on the wrong end of a 3-6 record that says otherwise. At this point in the season it goes beyond "one game."

Of course, I think the Mets are the better team on paper and should be leading this series, and I still believe they will win the division. But it's just frustratingly hard to understand why a team that would be 60-42 can't beat a team that would be 53-50, excluding the 10 head-to-head matchups. The rest of the league apparently isn't having much difficulty handling them.

Bonds' other form of cheating

This is an interesting article arguing that Bonds' elbow protector has actually resulted in as many as 75-100 additional home runs for him over the years. I don't have much experience in mechanical engineering so I can't critique the author's arguments, but they certainly sound reasonable (particularly points 1 and 2).

300

As a big Mets fan, it was tough to root for Tom when we first signed him. Sure I respected him, but he’d beaten my team too many times to not harbor a little grudge against the man.

Then you get to watch him. Over the course of 5 seasons, I’ve watched this guy do everyting right. I’m not talking exclusively (or even primarily) about on the mound, either. This is a guy who never creates a problem, never sounds off when the bullpen blows his lead, rarely ever shows up an umpire, was dedicated to perfecting the little things (no one’s a better sac bunter and he’s one of the best fielding pitchers out there), and excelled despite the fact that he didn’t have a blazing fastball or sharp breaking stuff. He’s basically a fastball/change pitcher, without a great fastball. So how’d he get to 300 wins?

Ability to locate his pitches, of course, but it’s his mental toughness that blows my mind. The man never gives into a hitter. 10-pitch, 12-pitch, 14 pitch at-bat, and he doesn’t just give in and groove a fastball and hope his fielders pick him up. He’s locating, changing speeds, going off-speed when he’s behind in the count, maximizing whatever advantage he can create against the hitter. And if he thinks it’ll help, he’ll lose the current hitter to get to the next one. He’s a chess player in a pitcher’s body. Unbelievable.

At this point in his career, he’s not really the “ace” of the staff anymore. But he elevates the entire staff by his example and instruction (how many times does he end up talking shop with Maine or Heilman after a tough inning?), and has become easily my favorite player in the game, right up there with my childhood hero (Kieth Hernandez).

Dwight Gooden went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA back in ‘85. That was talent. Talent flames out.

300 wins means 20 years of success. It means having to learn and relearn how to pitch and adapt to your changing body. It means having to react to hitters who have learned how to react to you, after 40 or 50 confrontations. It means conditioning, sound mechanics, and God-given talent. It's almost ridiculous to say it when talking about Tom, but in today's day-and-age, it means not getting arrested for driving 120 on the LIE with a gat in your belt and narcotics laid out in the passenger seat.

In short, it means being a professional.

Thanks, Tom.

Los Bravos

Mets must find a way to take 2 of 3 from braves this week. I don't care that we're facing smoltz and hudson, they must find a way.

Willie must hate glavine. I first suspected it when he crapped all over what 300 wins would mean, but it's very obvious by the fact that he just put mota into the game. If you didn't hate glavine, why else would you do that???

Quick thoughts

Ramon Castro's numbers just keep getting sillier. He's played 1/4 season, over a full season he'd have 36 HRs, 108 RBIs, w/.300 avg. Totally out of character compared to his previous seasons, but amazing..

I like watching Perez pitch and certainly Maine, but there's something even better about a healthy El Duque. That guy just has ridiculous movement on his pitches, there's no way anyone can hit him unless he throws a mistake and leaves it hanging. Plus his delivery being so unorthodox has to mess with batters.

Johan Santana...

...is not suprisingly disappointed in Twins front office and looking to leave. He's a free agent after '08, but I guarantee he won't be around until then. Especially not with Yankees needing pitching. I would love to see the Mets be one of the teams pursuing him. He's only 28, is one of the most dominant pitchers of his time, and is a strikeout leader. I can only imagine a stable that includes Santana, Pedro, Maine, Perez, Humber/Pelfrey.. I'd even say goodbye to both Humber and Pelfrey for Santana. As good as the upside is for either of them, I haven't heard anyone predicting that they will exceed what Santana has already proven for the last 5 years. I could see Humber, Pelfrey, and Gomez or Gotay for Santana. Whether or not that's attractive enough I guess depends on how much other teams are willing to part with to get Santana, and what Twins really want.

Offens-ive

Wow. Great to see Jeff Suppan, of the 5.00 ERA, shut us down. Although I don't think this lineup needs much help to shut down - it's pretty much in a permanent coma. In the NL, mets are #6 in BA, #7 in OBP, and still #9 in runs. In the NL. Ruben Gotay, where are you??

Making it worse of course is a wasted gem from Glavine.

If we make the playoffs this year, Mota should not be on the roster. Wayyyy too undependable this season.

Assuming we make playoffs and Pedro is good, who are your starting 4? Pedro - Duque - Glavine - Maine? Do you put Perez in and have starting 5? Or do you put Perez in the roster instead of someone else? Which of those 5 do you see as most valuable out of the pen? It seems to me that the person who has given up the fewest runs at the start of a game is Perez, so he might be best out of bullpen. Plus, he brings some nasty stuff.

Humber on the move?

From Jayson Stark at ESPN:

If the Mets don't come away with Gagne, the only remaining bullpen choice on their menu is now Cordero. Teams that have spoken with the Mets say they no longer have interest in Devil Rays closer Al Reyes, and they've gotten nowhere in their talks with the White Sox about Jon Garland. So they've narrowed their focus just to Gagne and Cordero, and weren't optimistic about coming away with Gagne. But Cordero hasn't appeared a whole lot easier to deal for, either. The Nationals have been pushing for Lastings Milledge, and the Mets are now telling clubs Milledge is on a list of six young players they won't change under any circumstances. The others: outfielders Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez, and pitchers Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Mulvey (currently in Double-A) and Deolis Guerra (currently in Class A). So can these two teams structure a deal around a prospect like highly regarded former No. 1 pick Philip Humber? We'll see. With the clock ticking toward the deadline, they were still talking.

Put this together with the comment I quoted from MetsGeek:

Humber was skipped in the Zephyrs rotation. Bostick hopped ahead of him and pitched last night.

Draw your own conclusions…

Humber for Cordero or Gagne, anyone? Anyone?

UPDATE:

Jayson Stark says that a 3-way deal where the Mets traded Humber to Arizona and received Cordero from the Nats almost happened, but ultimately died:

MARKET REPORT
The three-way deal that would have sent Chad Cordero to the Mets, by way of Arizona, is dead. The teams couldn't agree on players, and the Mets weren't willing to add a second player to the deal. It's still believed that the one player the teams had agreed upon was pitcher Philip Humber, but Washington wasn't willing to trade Cordero for Humber, one for one.

The definition of irony

Saw this little gem on mets.com from lyons:

Nady has done for the Pirates what the Mets have been unable to do this season -- hit with runners in scoring position. The pair of two-out run-scoring hits he had against the Mets last Thursday put his average in 46 at-bats with runners in scoring position and two out at .413.

Talk about a 180.. All the guy could do with us was hit meaningless HRs w/bases empty, but the minute he had RISP his bat completely disappeared. That was the #1 reason I wanted him gone - there's nothing less valuable to me than a player who disappears when it counts.

Mets still prowling

According to the NY Post, the Mets are still pursuing Joe Blanton (A's), Eric Gagne (Rangers), and Chad Cordero (Nats) to add an arm to their pen. The same article says that the price for Gagne and Cordero is likely too high.

MLB.com mentions the Nats' Jon Rauch as potential target for bullpen help.

Newsday says we've inquired about Jermaine Dye, but are unwilling to part with the prospects that the White Sox want.

The News adds that we're also considering bring Jeff Conine on board as a bench player. Based on how stingy we were in acquiring Castillo, what will we give up for Conine? One year supply of sunflower seeds?

As I commented last night, expect Gotay to be dangled as bait: his value's at a peak.

In other news, Pedro's backed off his earlier bluster and sounds unsure of how he'll be throwing when he returns:

"I'm right now wondering just like the fans," Martinez said. "What is it going to be like when I pitch? That's the reason why you guys come here, watch me and ask me questions. I don't really know. Nobody knows what's going to happen."

As if Pelfrey didn't have enough to worry about,

now he's got blood on his hands. Apparently, the same 6 IP and 3 ER's that have been driving SHK crazy drove this dude totally off the deep end.

Mets acquire Castillo

And it sounds like we totally stole him. Twins must've just wanted something before they lost him as a free agent. As great as Gotay's been playing, there's no way you can pass on a 3-time gold glover who's hitting over .300 and is only 31, at the price the Twins were asking. And now we won't be unloading prospects for Loretta.

Well played, Omar.

UPDATE: Based on the stats, one would have to imagine that of the two prospects we gave up, it was OF Dustin Martin, and not catcher Drew Butera, that most intrigues Minnesota. And with the stable overflowing with OF talent (Milledge/Gomez/F Mart/Coles) I can't worry about trading a guy who's still in high A ball, even with his great rookie campaign in Brooklyn. At St. Lucie he's hitting .280 with 5 HR and a .779 OPS. That's not bad for a 22 year old kid, and could be the foundation for future success. But it hardly makes him a lock for a ML starter.

Butera looks like an aspiring Charlie O'Brien. He must be a good glove guy, since he got promoted from A-ball (hagerstown) last year after hitting below the Mendoza line in nearly 300 AB's. This year at A St. Lucie, he improved to .258 before getting promoted again to AA. And as a result, he's back on the interstate.

Worst-case scenario

Say it isn't so!! If true, it looks like Teixeira is a Brave. This is the worst possible scenario. Even worse, I don't see the players given up by Atlanta as causing them a significant setback. Saltalamachhia was certainly looking promising, but I wouldn't even think twice to lose his bat for Tex.

Given Delgado's face-plant this season, and our lack of up-and-coming talent at 1B in minors (is Mike Carp and his .250 average really the future??), not going hard for Teixeira is sort of baffling to me. I understand he comes at a steep price (players to be traded as well as salary after '08), but I can't understand not even being part of the process.

A few observations

1. Beltran is injured again, likely heading to DL. What a shocker. The guy always has a "sore" quad or "sore" abdominal muscle. For a guy who's only 30 to consistently have these nagging injuries does not bode well for his longevity as a player. Quite honestly the image of him taking strike three looking, therby ending our run in the playoffs, is about the most fitting image I can think of for him.

2. Every NY Post mets article these days must have a quote from Milledge. He is hands down the most quoted player in that paper. So, either: (1) milledge likes to talk a lot, so he's an easy quote, or (2) the Post seeks him out, hoping he'll say something dumb and give them great headlines.

3. Willie seems to be more aggressive in discussing players these days. For example, the other day he was unnecessarily harsh about how little Glavine's 300th would mean to him (willie). Then today, he fired back at PLD for suggesting he will be catching Glavine's 300th, saying 'We're not going to let him dictate whether he catches Tommy' based purely on his desire to do so, Randolph said. Wonder if there's some more tension behind the scenes there then we know about..

Castro

It's hard to overstate what a season Castro has had. Right out of the gate he brought average and power, belting HRs. He has shown no signs of falling off throughout the season. I really can't think of a backup at any position on any team that has the stats he's put up this year. What he's done on a part-time basis is nothing short of phenomenal.