300

As a big Mets fan, it was tough to root for Tom when we first signed him. Sure I respected him, but he’d beaten my team too many times to not harbor a little grudge against the man.

Then you get to watch him. Over the course of 5 seasons, I’ve watched this guy do everyting right. I’m not talking exclusively (or even primarily) about on the mound, either. This is a guy who never creates a problem, never sounds off when the bullpen blows his lead, rarely ever shows up an umpire, was dedicated to perfecting the little things (no one’s a better sac bunter and he’s one of the best fielding pitchers out there), and excelled despite the fact that he didn’t have a blazing fastball or sharp breaking stuff. He’s basically a fastball/change pitcher, without a great fastball. So how’d he get to 300 wins?

Ability to locate his pitches, of course, but it’s his mental toughness that blows my mind. The man never gives into a hitter. 10-pitch, 12-pitch, 14 pitch at-bat, and he doesn’t just give in and groove a fastball and hope his fielders pick him up. He’s locating, changing speeds, going off-speed when he’s behind in the count, maximizing whatever advantage he can create against the hitter. And if he thinks it’ll help, he’ll lose the current hitter to get to the next one. He’s a chess player in a pitcher’s body. Unbelievable.

At this point in his career, he’s not really the “ace” of the staff anymore. But he elevates the entire staff by his example and instruction (how many times does he end up talking shop with Maine or Heilman after a tough inning?), and has become easily my favorite player in the game, right up there with my childhood hero (Kieth Hernandez).

Dwight Gooden went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA back in ‘85. That was talent. Talent flames out.

300 wins means 20 years of success. It means having to learn and relearn how to pitch and adapt to your changing body. It means having to react to hitters who have learned how to react to you, after 40 or 50 confrontations. It means conditioning, sound mechanics, and God-given talent. It's almost ridiculous to say it when talking about Tom, but in today's day-and-age, it means not getting arrested for driving 120 on the LIE with a gat in your belt and narcotics laid out in the passenger seat.

In short, it means being a professional.

Thanks, Tom.

Los Bravos

Mets must find a way to take 2 of 3 from braves this week. I don't care that we're facing smoltz and hudson, they must find a way.

Willie must hate glavine. I first suspected it when he crapped all over what 300 wins would mean, but it's very obvious by the fact that he just put mota into the game. If you didn't hate glavine, why else would you do that???

Quick thoughts

Ramon Castro's numbers just keep getting sillier. He's played 1/4 season, over a full season he'd have 36 HRs, 108 RBIs, w/.300 avg. Totally out of character compared to his previous seasons, but amazing..

I like watching Perez pitch and certainly Maine, but there's something even better about a healthy El Duque. That guy just has ridiculous movement on his pitches, there's no way anyone can hit him unless he throws a mistake and leaves it hanging. Plus his delivery being so unorthodox has to mess with batters.

Johan Santana...

...is not suprisingly disappointed in Twins front office and looking to leave. He's a free agent after '08, but I guarantee he won't be around until then. Especially not with Yankees needing pitching. I would love to see the Mets be one of the teams pursuing him. He's only 28, is one of the most dominant pitchers of his time, and is a strikeout leader. I can only imagine a stable that includes Santana, Pedro, Maine, Perez, Humber/Pelfrey.. I'd even say goodbye to both Humber and Pelfrey for Santana. As good as the upside is for either of them, I haven't heard anyone predicting that they will exceed what Santana has already proven for the last 5 years. I could see Humber, Pelfrey, and Gomez or Gotay for Santana. Whether or not that's attractive enough I guess depends on how much other teams are willing to part with to get Santana, and what Twins really want.

Offens-ive

Wow. Great to see Jeff Suppan, of the 5.00 ERA, shut us down. Although I don't think this lineup needs much help to shut down - it's pretty much in a permanent coma. In the NL, mets are #6 in BA, #7 in OBP, and still #9 in runs. In the NL. Ruben Gotay, where are you??

Making it worse of course is a wasted gem from Glavine.

If we make the playoffs this year, Mota should not be on the roster. Wayyyy too undependable this season.

Assuming we make playoffs and Pedro is good, who are your starting 4? Pedro - Duque - Glavine - Maine? Do you put Perez in and have starting 5? Or do you put Perez in the roster instead of someone else? Which of those 5 do you see as most valuable out of the pen? It seems to me that the person who has given up the fewest runs at the start of a game is Perez, so he might be best out of bullpen. Plus, he brings some nasty stuff.

Humber on the move?

From Jayson Stark at ESPN:

If the Mets don't come away with Gagne, the only remaining bullpen choice on their menu is now Cordero. Teams that have spoken with the Mets say they no longer have interest in Devil Rays closer Al Reyes, and they've gotten nowhere in their talks with the White Sox about Jon Garland. So they've narrowed their focus just to Gagne and Cordero, and weren't optimistic about coming away with Gagne. But Cordero hasn't appeared a whole lot easier to deal for, either. The Nationals have been pushing for Lastings Milledge, and the Mets are now telling clubs Milledge is on a list of six young players they won't change under any circumstances. The others: outfielders Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez, and pitchers Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Mulvey (currently in Double-A) and Deolis Guerra (currently in Class A). So can these two teams structure a deal around a prospect like highly regarded former No. 1 pick Philip Humber? We'll see. With the clock ticking toward the deadline, they were still talking.

Put this together with the comment I quoted from MetsGeek:

Humber was skipped in the Zephyrs rotation. Bostick hopped ahead of him and pitched last night.

Draw your own conclusions…

Humber for Cordero or Gagne, anyone? Anyone?

UPDATE:

Jayson Stark says that a 3-way deal where the Mets traded Humber to Arizona and received Cordero from the Nats almost happened, but ultimately died:

MARKET REPORT
The three-way deal that would have sent Chad Cordero to the Mets, by way of Arizona, is dead. The teams couldn't agree on players, and the Mets weren't willing to add a second player to the deal. It's still believed that the one player the teams had agreed upon was pitcher Philip Humber, but Washington wasn't willing to trade Cordero for Humber, one for one.

The definition of irony

Saw this little gem on mets.com from lyons:

Nady has done for the Pirates what the Mets have been unable to do this season -- hit with runners in scoring position. The pair of two-out run-scoring hits he had against the Mets last Thursday put his average in 46 at-bats with runners in scoring position and two out at .413.

Talk about a 180.. All the guy could do with us was hit meaningless HRs w/bases empty, but the minute he had RISP his bat completely disappeared. That was the #1 reason I wanted him gone - there's nothing less valuable to me than a player who disappears when it counts.

Mets still prowling

According to the NY Post, the Mets are still pursuing Joe Blanton (A's), Eric Gagne (Rangers), and Chad Cordero (Nats) to add an arm to their pen. The same article says that the price for Gagne and Cordero is likely too high.

MLB.com mentions the Nats' Jon Rauch as potential target for bullpen help.

Newsday says we've inquired about Jermaine Dye, but are unwilling to part with the prospects that the White Sox want.

The News adds that we're also considering bring Jeff Conine on board as a bench player. Based on how stingy we were in acquiring Castillo, what will we give up for Conine? One year supply of sunflower seeds?

As I commented last night, expect Gotay to be dangled as bait: his value's at a peak.

In other news, Pedro's backed off his earlier bluster and sounds unsure of how he'll be throwing when he returns:

"I'm right now wondering just like the fans," Martinez said. "What is it going to be like when I pitch? That's the reason why you guys come here, watch me and ask me questions. I don't really know. Nobody knows what's going to happen."

As if Pelfrey didn't have enough to worry about,

now he's got blood on his hands. Apparently, the same 6 IP and 3 ER's that have been driving SHK crazy drove this dude totally off the deep end.

Mets acquire Castillo

And it sounds like we totally stole him. Twins must've just wanted something before they lost him as a free agent. As great as Gotay's been playing, there's no way you can pass on a 3-time gold glover who's hitting over .300 and is only 31, at the price the Twins were asking. And now we won't be unloading prospects for Loretta.

Well played, Omar.

UPDATE: Based on the stats, one would have to imagine that of the two prospects we gave up, it was OF Dustin Martin, and not catcher Drew Butera, that most intrigues Minnesota. And with the stable overflowing with OF talent (Milledge/Gomez/F Mart/Coles) I can't worry about trading a guy who's still in high A ball, even with his great rookie campaign in Brooklyn. At St. Lucie he's hitting .280 with 5 HR and a .779 OPS. That's not bad for a 22 year old kid, and could be the foundation for future success. But it hardly makes him a lock for a ML starter.

Butera looks like an aspiring Charlie O'Brien. He must be a good glove guy, since he got promoted from A-ball (hagerstown) last year after hitting below the Mendoza line in nearly 300 AB's. This year at A St. Lucie, he improved to .258 before getting promoted again to AA. And as a result, he's back on the interstate.

Worst-case scenario

Say it isn't so!! If true, it looks like Teixeira is a Brave. This is the worst possible scenario. Even worse, I don't see the players given up by Atlanta as causing them a significant setback. Saltalamachhia was certainly looking promising, but I wouldn't even think twice to lose his bat for Tex.

Given Delgado's face-plant this season, and our lack of up-and-coming talent at 1B in minors (is Mike Carp and his .250 average really the future??), not going hard for Teixeira is sort of baffling to me. I understand he comes at a steep price (players to be traded as well as salary after '08), but I can't understand not even being part of the process.

A few observations

1. Beltran is injured again, likely heading to DL. What a shocker. The guy always has a "sore" quad or "sore" abdominal muscle. For a guy who's only 30 to consistently have these nagging injuries does not bode well for his longevity as a player. Quite honestly the image of him taking strike three looking, therby ending our run in the playoffs, is about the most fitting image I can think of for him.

2. Every NY Post mets article these days must have a quote from Milledge. He is hands down the most quoted player in that paper. So, either: (1) milledge likes to talk a lot, so he's an easy quote, or (2) the Post seeks him out, hoping he'll say something dumb and give them great headlines.

3. Willie seems to be more aggressive in discussing players these days. For example, the other day he was unnecessarily harsh about how little Glavine's 300th would mean to him (willie). Then today, he fired back at PLD for suggesting he will be catching Glavine's 300th, saying 'We're not going to let him dictate whether he catches Tommy' based purely on his desire to do so, Randolph said. Wonder if there's some more tension behind the scenes there then we know about..

Castro

It's hard to overstate what a season Castro has had. Right out of the gate he brought average and power, belting HRs. He has shown no signs of falling off throughout the season. I really can't think of a backup at any position on any team that has the stats he's put up this year. What he's done on a part-time basis is nothing short of phenomenal.

Pelfrey

Another start, another 6 IP, >100 pitches, 3 ER. The guy's consistency is unbelievable; except for Trachsel, I've never seen anyone have the same line every time they pitched. Somehow he's just got to have a break-out game one of these times and get through the hurdle. One thing that's surprising to me is his K rate is so low: roughly 5 Ks/9 IP. I thought he was more of a strikeout pitcher?

Current Met Starters, Ranked by OPS

Wright 3B .875
Gotay 2B .850
Alou LF .831
Reyes SS .830
Beltran CF .823
[Milledge] .819
Delgado 1B .757
Green RF .725
LoDuca C .679
[Valentin] .676
[Gomez] .636

A few lessons:

1. Milledge is contributing in a very real way (basically hitting as well as Beltran) and should get 3rd OF playing time right now (between replacing Green against LHP and spelling Beltran and Alou).

2. Gotay has been hitting great, we all know that. There's a strong argument that his trade value might never be higher. There's also the chance he's Melvin Mora. My guess? Gotay & 2 pitching prospects (like Muniz, Schmoll, Burgos; not Pelfrey, Humber or Mulvey) will be offered for Mark Loretta.

3. As a team, we're underperforming. Even our better performers this year, Wright/Reyes/Beltran could be 50-150 points higher in their OPS. Delgado and Green are rally killers and non-producers at this point, and they both blow in the field.

4. Despite all the excitement Gomez produced, and all the callers from Bensonhurst who have annointed him the NEXT one, he clearly needs some more seasoning. As a PR/defensive replacement/spot starter he's fine already, but with his high ceiling, he needs to be playing every day and honing his eye and his situational hitting.

Joe Smith demoted

He's been hit hard recently, but still, I'm surprised. The details here.

I guess the thought is, with his velocity down and fatigue setting in, let him pitch through the dog days in AAA. Next year hopefully his endurance will be a little stronger. Still, it's not like he's the only guy in the bullpen who's been through a rough patch this year.

Kieth Kernandez called Billy Wagner...

the most dominant reliever the Mets have ever had in their organization, during last night's game broadcast. "I know it's only been a couple of seasons, but the Mets have never had a guy this good...".

Gary Cohen countered that for two months in 1973 McGraw was better, but that was a shorter period.

I figured SHK would appreciate...

Kunz signed

Our first round pick was signed 6 weeks after the CWS ended. He's big kid who throws hard and spent this past year closing for the team that ultimately won its second championship in a row. Apparently Omar is hoping he can be on the Joe-Smith-like fast track to the bigs. From Mets.com:

At Oregon State, Kunz helped lead his team to two consecutive College World Series championships. The 6-foot-5, 250-pounder went 3-1 with 12 saves this season as a closer for the Beavers. Last year, he held his spot as a setup man, and his freshman year he was a middle-man for the team.

For the Mets, Kunz will likely begin his career as a relief pitcher, general manager Omar Minaya said.

"We see him as definitely some type of relief pitcher," Minaya said. "We're not sure of what type that will be, but he'll find his place. That will take care of itself."

Kunz holds a fastball hovering around 95 mph, a changeup and a slider in his repertoire, and batters hit just .194 against him this season. He's had an outstanding college career, going 10-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 73 games, but knows that what lies ahead will be different, a challenge as he strives to earn his spot on a big-league roster.

"It's going to be a huge change for me, but I think I'll feel pretty comfortable and go out and settle in," Kunz said. "And hopefully, when I do get up here, it'll be a smooth transition for me."

It could take one year or it could take several. It's too early to tell, Minaya said, but Kunz will have his fair share of opportunities to show the club what he's got during his time in the Minors.

"Joe Smith did it in one year after he signed," Minaya said. "If you're a college player, it usually takes about four or five years, but he could be up here as early as September or August next year."

Teixeira

What would you be willing to give up for Teixeira? Better start thinking about it if you're Omar Minaya, since Rangers are apparently seriously looking to move him. Maybe we could set up a 3-way trade, where someone else takes Delgado, and we each give Texas a prospect in return. I'd be willing to put any of the following players on the block: Carp, Heilman, and probably Pelfrey.

Alou again

Not that I'm going to complain the way Milledge has been playing, but can someone please explain this to me??

With Moises Alou still on the disabled list - he was not activated yesterday because of a new ailment, a sore right shoulder...

How in the world do you get a sore right shoulder while sitting on your ass doing rehab??? This sounds like either: (a) a BS story and Alou's original injury is still a problem, or (b) Alou needs to figure out how to take better care of his old body.

Alou

Hopefully the return of Alou is the magic beans our offense has been searching for. We are currently #9 in NL in runs scored. Given our status as #1 in NL payroll that is pathetic. Time for the bats to start stepping up, and helping out our rotation.

Billy Billy Billy

I know it wasn't the playoffs, but last night was huge save for Wagner. The team mounts a gritty rally and finally grabs a one run lead after trailinig the whole game. If we give back the lead it's a crushing defeat: a comeback thwarted, a series win taken from them at the 11th hour, and a losing road trip. Instead, we got a stirring comeback, a series win against the Dodgers, and a winning road trip.

And what a tough way to do it. Billy picks Pierre off of 1st for what should have been the first out of the inning, but I think Greenie is still looking for that ball in his cavernous 1B mitt. Tying run in scoring position with 0 outs, and Wagner K's "the all star" Martin. IBB to Kent to face Kemp, a bold move considering the guy's hitting .360. Then Wagner K's Kemp. Finally, Nomar, who K's looking.

Talk about overcoming an error. Strikes out the side against the meat of the order, and three excellent contact hitters.

Valentin done for the year?

Apparently it's a possibility. That's a nasty injury.

Luckily, with the way Gotay's been hitting, playing him at second softens the blow somewhat. And you can platoon him with Easley so he doesn't feel too much pressure at one time.

I've been jealous that the Janks pulled Cano from their system just when the Mets needed a Cano type player, but in Gotay, we may have found one of our own. Emphasis on may.

Which leads to the million ten-thousand dollar question: do you trade Gotay, who suddently probably has some actual value, do bring in Loretta? Loretta's been rumored to be available, and you know Willie would really prefer to have the veteran stability and good glove that Loretta would bring (and his .300 average doesn't hurt either). So do you give up the young guy who's tearing it up (along with another prospect) in a small sample of AB's for the proven commodity who's in his 30's?

A few thoughts

1. Gotay's bat looks to be real.. Per DC's earlier post, I hope his glove is at least good enough to justify keeping him as a regular starter. We could use the average in our lineup.

2. Wright's BA improvement month-to-month has been nothing short of amazing: April (.244), May (.294), June (.323), July (.328). His combo of average + power is outstanding.

3. The strike zone has finally caught up to Glavine. He and Maddux used to drive me crazy when they were on the Braves, b/c I felt that if it weren't for the slightly wider strike zone they were always afforded, they'd be nothing. Don't get me wrong, their ability to control location so consistently is nothing short of spectacular. But, at the end of the day a ball is still a ball, no matter how perfectly you locate it. If Glavine isn't getting a wide zone, he's done.

4. I heard the Mets gave Pedro a one-week break from rehab, which some execs read to mean that he's not as on track as Mets would like. Any updates?

5. The '86 team finished with a remarkable .667 win %age. To put that into perspective, it would mean today's team at 53-42 is so far behind they would have to win their next 31 games in a row to get to that same win %, and close out the season 55-12 to finish up 108-54.

Recap

The bolded line below (emphasis mine) is about the funniest line I've ever seen in a recap.. Courtesy of metsgeek.com..

Bottom of the first and it’s time for John Maine to recover from his jittery outing against Cincinnati last week. Maine’s stuff looked good – the hitters were fouling it off to the opposite field, and he missed his usual share of bats. But he walked the leadoff hitter on five pitches, and one out later, Adrian Gonzalez hit a grounder just past the reach of the armoire playing first base. On a positive note, Shawn Green now offers same-day service on balls hit down the line, and he did hold Gonzalez to an RBI double.

Man, do the editors over at Geek ever hate Greenie!

Pads

I didn't see last night's game but checking out the box score makes you wonder. On the one hand, what an insult that El Duque was able to steal second! Are you kidding?? On the other hand, is that really the smartest play for a guy who is perenially injured now, to the point where he knocked himself out of the playoffs last year while lightly jogging around the outfield during warm-ups? Next, you can't be anything but thrilled that we smoked them 7-0 during a Peavy start - you know that is going to benefit us in the playoffs. On the other hand, how did Mets Offense 2.0 manage to strand 20 runners on base?

Baseball's an interesting game... Now let's take the rubber match tonight and move on to LA..

Heilman

It's time for Mets to trade Heilman. He is not going to be a good reliever, and I doubt we're ever going to let him be the starter he wants to be. Let's consider him tradeable as part of a package.

BTW, I'm sure glad we didn't roll the dice on free agent Gagne in the offseason like I had suggested last year. (insert sarcasm here.) Who needs a guy with 1.23 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 2-0 w/14 SVs to 1 BLSV, at a cost of only $6 M for one season, without giving up any trades??? If we had taken a chance, we would now have the option of trading either Wagner or Gagne, both of who's stock is through the roof, and could've parlayed that into a meaningful starter. But it's a good thing we held onto that $6M instead. Otherwise how would we have paid Alou, Sanchez, Green, ...?

Mailbag

This question on mets.com was so absurd I couldn't help but laugh, and wonder why marty noble actually answered it. It can't have been a serious question, could it?

Because Endy Chavez made that great catch in Game 7 of the NLCS last year, could he go into the Hall of Fame just for that?
-- Jacob K., Croton, N.Y.

Humber and stuff

Unfortunately, Humber's #s don't seem particularly impressive yet (except for SO:BB ratio, looks reasonable at ~3.5:1), and his splits don't show any improvement from April to July. I would hope that Pelfrey and Humber develop into solid pitchers, especially given how hyped they have been. But at this point I haven't seen anything that tells me either one will be a truly great pitcher, a legit #1.

Any predictions on Pedro? Will he be as good in his return as he keeps talking himself up to be? Hard to imagine, but if so that would completely change the look of this team. His #s with the Mets in '05 and April of '06 were tremendous, and would give the rotation an enormous boost. His return to even a reasonable level would make an impact that can't be overstated.

Speaking of injuries, what's the word on Alou and Sanchez? I heard Alou's not back until August. What about Sanchez? Will either one return in form to contribute? If so, expect Mets to pull away from Braves.

Run at Dunn?

This kid is only 27 or so, and has massive power (the type that doesn't diminish just 'cause you play at Shea), and should have, conservatively another 4 good years in him. I figure him to have a short shelf life for a player, given his lumbering body type and long swing. The numbers are what they are. 40 HR's a possibility in any given year, but don't expect an average much above .250.

If Alou's not coming back this year (or is still a big question mark) at the time of the deadline, do you give this kid a look? I understand that the Reds might want to deal him for some younger talent, especially since it's a walk year for Dunn. If he fits in well here, you could extend him with an eye towards replacing Delgado. He's played 1b before.